I have to imagine a 4% drop for a company that beat expectations by so much is pretty unheard of. I've really been trying not to add more TSLA but this is well beyond the normal "I think TSLA is going to the moon" situation.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Of course, it's a growth stock and you simply can't value growth stocks dependent on future technological break-throughs on short term trends. IMO Tesla's future, in terms of achieving future profits commensurate the current PE, absolutely passes over the 4680/battery pack bridge. If they can cross over that the current growth rate can increase exponentially and the current PE is a bargain. But if they can't, or if they're significantly delayed then I think the competition catches up and while Tesla can be very successful I don't think they can be a PE of 400 successful.
Personally I think as Elon said it's a matter of when, not if, and it's not a long, long term 'if'. And I think the market agrees, after all, it's only down 4% or whatever, it's not like this is some biotech that failed with the FDA and is down 64%. But I CAN understand the market perceiving a little bit of cloudiness in the crystal ball, to me it's just a buying opportunity.
I've just seen a lot of people saying they don't understand the market's reaction when results were so outstanding. In short, my answer is there's nothing they can do in current results to support the stock price; it's 100% dependent on a technology enabled future totally disconnected from current operations, which is why the price is totally disconnected from current operations.
That's all I'm saying.
This the best you got WS? .....
No worries here ....
Cheers to the longs!
No worries here ....
Cheers to the longs!
So about all this chip shortage/manufacturing nonsense.
I believe Wallstreet is using metric in gauging every spin doctor of Ceo from other companies to also apply it Elon. Usually the CEO on an earnings call spin everything into a positive and ONLY start talking about difficulties of certain things as a last resort...and will be seen as an excuse..that's why they use it as a last resort.
Elon talks about difficulties every time but he just want Wallstreet to appreciate what Tesla is doing. I think he is just wasting time there as Wallstreet has very little patience when they hear "excuses"..even though they are not excuses but should be interpreted as accolade as Tesla manage to break records every quarter which proved they worked through the difficulties.
So that's why earnings call always come through the other side as muddy full of uncertainty.
I believe Wallstreet is using metric in gauging every spin doctor of Ceo from other companies to also apply it Elon. Usually the CEO on an earnings call spin everything into a positive and ONLY start talking about difficulties of certain things as a last resort...and will be seen as an excuse..that's why they use it as a last resort.
Elon talks about difficulties every time but he just want Wallstreet to appreciate what Tesla is doing. I think he is just wasting time there as Wallstreet has very little patience when they hear "excuses"..even though they are not excuses but should be interpreted as accolade as Tesla manage to break records every quarter which proved they worked through the difficulties.
So that's why earnings call always come through the other side as muddy full of uncertainty.
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I bought two June 2023 $900 LEAPs late this AM to add to two held at 60% higher purchase price, and feel like a wimp after what I’ve read in the past 20 pages. Hmmm…….
My issue there is that those "problems" existed last week, and last month as well. The only new info we have is how much Tesla has added to profitability. Maybe this wasn't enough for the next leg up, but it's certainly good news that should push it up a bit.
I like arbitrary crayons on colored bars ...
See? It's a death trap! :>
Arbitrary lines indeed ...
(But i would more agree with you .. but as a training i always try to do one line-thingy with the opposite thesis & look for "how would GJ spin it?")
You are spot on. Wallstreet is just lazy.
Saying 4680 cells are progressing to where we need them for when Berlin and Austin are open is OK. Providing some detail on whats left tells WS that oh they have issues.
Saying they have mitigated the chip crisis with software teams writing new code to integrate different chips is OK. Saying that chip crisis still exists and still is a challenge is Tesla is being hit by the chip crisis.
All a traditional manufacturer has to do is announce a car. Doesnt matter if car is not being made for years or is low or relatively low volume. Doesnt matter the competition is vicious. They cant be bothered to check sales of the cars or the planned volumes of the car. You see people like Cramer talk about Mach-E or ID.4. They fail to check on the sales or the volume that will be made.
I didn't say I doubt it, why would I buy if I doubt it? I said you can't validate it using short term current operational results. You have to envision success with the technological advances like the 4680 or FSD that enable both geometric growth and margin expansion. I believe those things will happen, but they could have sold another 50,000 cars and it wouldn't changed my expectation about those things happening. Nothing they could do in production or sales would affect my degree of confidence in future technological improvements.
Nope. China S&X don't have CCS. They have GB/T AC and DC ports. (In a "gas flap" added to the quarter panel.)
Likely had more to do with the Nasdaq taking another step down to a new low for the day
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
I see Fred wrote an entire article about Cybertruck being delayed into 2022.
I don’t know...they’ve never really said volume production would come in 2021 anyways. Sure they could crank out a few semi-handmade ones at the end of 2021 if they wanted, but all they really said yesterday was Y takes priority over CT, and Y is on track to begin production later this year.
Not sure how that translates to “CT delayed.”
I don’t know...they’ve never really said volume production would come in 2021 anyways. Sure they could crank out a few semi-handmade ones at the end of 2021 if they wanted, but all they really said yesterday was Y takes priority over CT, and Y is on track to begin production later this year.
Not sure how that translates to “CT delayed.”
"You too, Jim, thanks"???
Exploding demand doesn't change your calculus?
And what technology are you concerned about that might not occur, 4680? Is that what you're hanging this negative thesis on?
Honestly, I'm not worried about 4680 after actually reading the Earnings Report. They have a bottleneck in the line that needs some improvement, but the 1,000,000 mi battery and quality validation comment didn't get you excited? AND a backup plan is in place just in case. The cause was an unusual phenomenon when sizing larger they did not expect. So they'll solve it with some time. Not worried. And the Semi wasn't even included in the last valuation someone posted here.
Meanwhile, Tesla will likely discover about 50 other things not on the radar with the next year. It's the speed of development, engineering, and production growth that you are underestimating, IMHO. Where do you think all that cash is going? It's R&D and expansion - both on steroids.
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