Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sancho]

O

Elon has it all.
humanitarian motivation
self learner
genius level IQ
horizontal academic knowledges with micromanaging physics problem solving capacity
entrepreneurial personality
aspergers with the capacity to discard useless players but being socially adapted at the same time
mental strength to turn his father psychological abuse and school bullies into positive strength to endure starting 2 business most likely to fail, managed to resist the mental strain of the 2008 crisis and was willing to sacrifice his whole personal wealth to keep the 2 companies most likely to change mankind for the greater
capacity to endure weeks of extreme workloads

Nikola Tesla and Albert Einstein did not have the entrepreneurial side
Edison did not have the humanitarian side
Oppenheimer is probably the one with the closest capacity to micromanage all the chemistry, physics and integrated mathematics problem as he showed in the Manhattan project as other physicist reported. However the world situation was different.
Von Neumann had the greatest mind of all time to solve unresolved theorem in pure mathematics and probably had the greatest IQ however did not have en engineering side.
Newton was a unable to sustain a daily conversation and Einstein was a great humanitarian , both could go on with multiple days of sleepless nights and work for more than 72hours straight when working on their theorem.

thats why I will put all the money I have available into Musk companies.

I have the luck to be able to endure extreme workload and can subsequently invest everything I am able to make into Musk endeavours. And I am just smart enough to understand that it’s the right thing to do

Of all the people you mention, only one becomes among the richest people on earth. That’s not by itself proof of anything, but it seems to me a useful verification in solving for the question of where I should be investing my money.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Now with Dave Lee's numbers.

View attachment 687867

Another one (if you want, GAAP only unless I missed it) - Tesla Economist (NB. Use Twitter, not Youtube figures - he double counted in video)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418889458158497792

Spoiler: Details-Links

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418894344744882176

 

[Drezil]

Another one (if you want, GAAP only unless I missed it) - Tesla Economist (NB. Use Twitter, not Youtube figures - he double counted in video)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418889458158497792

Spoiler: Details-Links

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418894344744882176

View attachment 687951

I think in the video be also has non-GAAP numbers.. but I'm on mobile currently and can't check.
Also correct for the double-bitcoin-error when you are at it

 

[OrthoSurg]

O

Of all the people you mention, only one becomes among the richest people on earth. That’s not by itself proof of anything, but it seems to me a useful verification in solving for the question of where I should be investing my money.

Yes you’re right. However, Edison managed to do well Top 10 Richest Inventors in History
however, he could have become world #1 had he bet everything on AC current during the current war vs Westinghouse. Instead, he let Nikola Tesla go from his company to see him later work for George Westinghouse. But yes, to become world richest person alive, the most important thing to have is entrepreneurial side. Jeff Bezos has extreme wealth by harmonizing logistics, did not need genius level IQ or to create a theory of everything by finding a quantum theory of gravity. He leveraged the workforce of dozen of thousand human beings to offer low cost and free shipping to hyper consumers in a capitalistic society.

However, Elon is far more complete. And yet, many people in the social media fail to see he is one of the greatest kind of our generation and they repeat FUD non sense over and over against on every Twitter post, every YouTube video and in real life from FUD articles online.

In 50 years, he will be seen for what he is and a whole generation of naysayers will be gone

 

[bruce4000]

Probably the most valuable takeaway from the interview personally was the concept of "depth of passion". It matters the depth of passion people have for a product. And this is what TMC helped the most in the early days. I DM'ed a ton of people in 2012 asking for their early Model S ownership experiences, trying to find out how much better they liked the Model S compared to their previous vehicles. If it was only a marginal difference, I probably would have passed on TSLA as an investment. But overwhelmingly people displayed a super high depth of passion for their Teslas. This formed a lot of my confidence to go heavy in.

I have a Subaru Outback and now a MY. Noticed that on Subaru forums, most entries just talk about problems with their car. No talk about stock price, climate change, or other mission statement. People like their Subies but it’s just a car. Whole different feel on Tesla forums and gave me confidence to invest in.

 

[Mengy]

I have a Subaru Outback and now a MY. Noticed that on Subaru forums, most entries just talk about problems with their car. No talk about stock price, climate change, or other mission statement. People like their Subies but it’s just a car. Whole different feel on Tesla forums and gave me confidence to invest in.

Yep. I own a pair of Subaru Crosstreks but I'm trading one in later this year for a MY and I've noticed the same difference between the TMC and Subaru forums.

Tesla is more like Harley Davidson than other auto companies. There is a devotion to the brand for both, an interest in all things Tesla/HD both product and financial. I only wish Harley would innovate like Tesla does!

 

[UkNorthampton]

I hadn't seen this posted, it's 10 days old, but I've seen a few advert-strewn sources repeat it recently. Basically UK insurers encouraged by their trade org to replace stolen/destroyed/damaged beyond repair ICE cars with EVs. It's quite a good idea for other countries to extend. Possibly mandate/subsidy for EV replacement, especially for older used cars. Tesla/EV demand just won't be satisfied by supply for a long time

Domestic heating boilers/heat pumps also mentioned.

Insurers plan green replacements for car and property write-offs

Written off or stolen petrol cars could be replaced with electric vehicles, as part of a wide-ranging eco-plan.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[The Accountant]

Another one (if you want, GAAP only unless I missed it) - Tesla Economist (NB. Use Twitter, not Youtube figures - he double counted in video)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418889458158497792

Spoiler: Details-Links

https://twitter.com/x/status/1418894344744882176

View attachment 687951

I was able to compute his non-GAAP number by adding back his Stock Based Compensation estimate of $500m. We arrive at $1.19 EPS - Let's hope he's the winner !! Posting an updated schedule now.

 

[The Accountant]

Tesla Economist is assuming stronger Gross Margins and lower Operating Costs than the other Forecasters.
I know there have been price increases within the industry but we have seen Tesla deliver strong cost efficiencies in the past.
The $1.19 is within the range of possibilities. Cheering for him to win bragging rights !

 

[UkNorthampton]

Tesla Economist is assuming stronger Gross Margins and lower Operating Costs than the other Forecasters.
I know there have been price increases within the industry but we have seen Tesla deliver strong cost efficiencies in the past.
The $1.19 is within the range of possibilities. Cheering for him to win bragging rights !

View attachment 687978

Thanks. Looking forward to Forward P/E falling / share price rising (over time), even possible dividends in the far future.

I think he's been quite accurate in the past (not sure, so be gentle with me). I do think that material/chip/shipping costs have probably risen, so I'm hopeful but cautious.

It's going the right way for Tesla & EVs, while legacy OEMs & suppliers that don't change quickly will get into a lower income, high debt, pensions deficit, unhappy dealers, fixed costs nightmare. Operational leverage works both ways, with chip shortage providing a clue to its effects on legacy/suppliers.

 

[2daMoon]

In order to appropriately temper excitement about another record earnings call, IBKR sent a notification to remind how the average SP change over the one week period following the past four earnings announcements has been -4.5%

Hopefully this time will be different, but this is TSLA, right?

 

[BornToFly]

I sold some Aug 13th covered calls with 820 strikes last week. I figured that even if we have a rise on solid earnings, the China FUD of sales down in August vs July (because we will ignore exports in the first month of the quarter), will bring the SP back down. That being said, all the earnings beat estimates being posted are making me nervous, and I might buy them back if there is a MMD tomorrow morning....

 

[juanmedina]

I sold some Aug 13th covered calls with 820 strikes last week. I figured that even if we have a rise on solid earnings, the China FUD of sales down in August vs July (because we will ignore exports in the first month of the quarter), will bring the SP back down. That being said, all the earnings beat estimates being posted are making me nervous, and I might buy them back if there is a MMD tomorrow morning....

I am feeling the same way and Elon tweeting about chairs doesn't help. I have 700s to 730s for next week.

 

[goinfraftw]

Q: Tesla team didn't reiterate their 2021 guidance for deliveries. Is that going to happen in the Q2 earnings call?

 

[ZsoZso]

In order to appropriately temper excitement about another record earnings call, IBKR sent a notification to remind how the average SP change over the one week period following the past four earnings announcements has been -4.5%

Hopefully this time will be different, but this is TSLA, right?

View attachment 687985​

While they are right, that is the typical pattern after the ER, they neglect to include the pattern before the ER. The fact is, TSLA has broken the typical pattern by failing to rise in the last week or so leading up to the ER. So, will the lack of buy-the-rumor also eliminate the sell-the-news part ?

 

[hacer]

Now with Dave Lee's numbers.

View attachment 687867

For Non-GAAP accounting, why would you include a bitcoin impairment based on the bizarre GAAP rules rather than based on the current bitcoin price?

 

[winfield100]

While I am still high on , here’s what my brian is seeing.
Chairs these days are taken for granted, in other words, are under appreciated.
One more perspective, a chair that didn’t exist earlier. A baby

Cheers!. My bad, Chairs !

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419145934693441537

way OT
used to love occasionally doing “giant steps” by holding onto the tailgate of the farm truck when it started moving, or doing “wheelies” with the 1953 tractor
_no_ big “ouchies” either (almost tho)

 

[The Accountant]

For Non-GAAP accounting, why would you include a bitcoin impairment based on the bizarre GAAP rules rather than based on the current bitcoin price?

Tesla defines Non-GAAP and it is possible that they could remove the Bitcoin charge when presenting Non-GAAP.
The SEC scrutinizes the use of Non-GAAP by companies. They tolerate stock based comp adjustments but tend to send letters to companies when they start to add new items (asking for justification).
So it is possible that Tesla starts to add Bitcoin as an adjustment to Non-GAAP but what I think they will do is state what earnings would be without the charge in the press release. Something like "Non-GAAP EPS was $1.06; excluding the Bitcoin charge of $104m, Non-GAAP EPS would have been $1.14."

 

[heltok]

Tesla Economist is assuming stronger Gross Margins and lower Operating Costs than the other Forecasters.
I know there have been price increases within the industry but we have seen Tesla deliver strong cost efficiencies in the past.
The $1.19 is within the range of possibilities. Cheering for him to win bragging rights !

View attachment 687978

Clearly factset will be a lot higher than 0.94 at the time of the earnings report to fabricate a slight miss. Expect at least one analyst to go up to 1.5 to increase the average.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Q: Tesla team didn't reiterate their 2021 guidance for deliveries. Is that going to happen in the Q2 earnings call?

They didn't really give any guidance. They just said they expected to grow 50% or more this year. I don't see that changing.