Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Wicket]

I just spent 30 minutes or so trying to find the current status on the proposed EV tax credit / rebate. I still see wording about the cars bought after Jan 1 2022 but I don't see wording about sales for cars in 2021. Am I misreading that?

U.S. Senate panel advances EV tax credit of up to $12,500

The U.S. Senate Finance Committee advanced legislation that would boost electric vehicle tax credits to as much as $12,500 for EVs that are assembled by union workers in the United States.

www.autoblog.com

FYI: “fiscal year - The fiscal year is the accounting period for the federal government which begins on October 1 and ends on September 30.”

https://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Clean%20Energy%20for%20America%20Act%20-%20Revenue%20Estimate.pdf

this has some budget numbers and confirms after 12/31/21. The first fiscal year here is 2022 which i interpret as 10/1/21-9/30/2022 and so it has an accordingly small number for ‘22 and then much larger for ‘23. However that is confusing because it seems to be scaled as 1/4th a total year rather than 3/4th so this is a puzzle. The logical guess being the cutoff is actually 3/31/2022 as end of 2022 here.

the predicted expansion pace is hilarious. They expect it to cost 13% more every year which should map directly to sales pace. I find that infuriatingly incompetent as there are tens of thousands of loafers on Twitter that could do better than that. But I suppose that is irrelevant to our purpose.

i’m not clear if this is going to pass. It appears to have party line support so can’t pass senate with filibuster and I don’t know enough about budget reconciliation process to say that, other than requiring fewer votes, if that will pass and whether it has to pass every year hence.

my investor perspective here is this would toss enormous sums into Tesla’s coffers [indirectly] but I’m less clear that means long-term advantage since it should buoy competitors that we may have preferred to struggle. I can see it either way. Since the market has limited long term visibility and likely is more optimistic about competitors than we are, I would think it would be happy about boosts to short term numbers.

it’s not even all that big in this budget (although the estimates are nonsense) compared to some of the other items. Clean fuel production I interpret as probably ethanol is similar. Geeze that was another questionable decision.

 

[Artful Dodger]

OT: (10 min ago)

Elon Musk on Twitter: "From the top of Starbase high bay https://t.co/kRtJBrwrqW" / Twitter

 

[MD70]

A good article about a battery start up in Europe. Interesting how the term gigafactory has become part of the language to mean a large factory producing batteries.
Articles like this are a good sign as they provide information to people who may not be into EVs.

Gigafactories: Europe tools up against US and Asia as a car battery force

As demand for electric cars grows, giant battery factories are being built across Europe.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[jbcarioca]

Twitter is an information social network whose inherent unit value is based on quickness and verifiability of the info shared on it.

Suffice it to say, if he keeps doing that - then his Twitter followers will turn on him and, the thing he's relied on, won't be as positively valuable to his life...

I don't think he's a fraud, it's just really hard these days to get consistently reliable sources outside of those that work at Tesla.

And the ones who work at Tesla often are not exactly correct. Even at Plaid event it seems some engineers were giving different information that were others. Further, almost all of that was word of mouth, which is notoriously unreliable, mostly without intent to deceive.

 

[mongo]

Moderator edit:

Author has indicated that this post is incorrect. A correction was posted in the thread.

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Regarding margins on S Plaid, unless I'm misinterpreting, the car uses three AC induction motors, none of the Model 3 style PMSR. Depending on CapEx of the winding machine and per unit cost, these may be cheaper than the PMSR version.

Quick rundown (further tech discussion deserves a thread)

Key clues from Tweet:
Copper rotor
Coaxial cooling

Supporting data:
High power
High RPM
Quiet (no torque cogging)
Efficency (due to torque sleep)

AC induction makes the dual rear motor packaging simpler by removing the tail shaft mounted encoders. Other cost savings are elimination of the magnets and stacked laminates.

It will be interesting to find our how they eliminated the rotor heating issue. Could be a design change, or it could be the up sized radiator Elon called out along with new heat pump (still running in AC mode) loop design lets then send cold enough coolant into the motor to offset the heat generated.
This would also allow more aux heat generation from the motor, if needed for cold weather operation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1404128430585618433

Main advantage of this is a much stronger EM field compared with a rotor that is held together by metal (usually high strength steel). Other advantage is that rotor can go to higher RPM, as carbon sleeve (mostly) stops copper rotor from expanding due to radial acceleration.

 

[EVMeister]

A much stronger Elon Musk field. That's what I like to hear.

 

[CLK350]

Thx! I wrote a bit on that a bit ago...

TL;DR - It's fine for the long term as radar fusion is hard as it doesn't agree with camera a whole bunch; a bit of a hindrance for the short term.

OT. Well I woke up early in this morning, and while expecting another boring day watching the time value of my option calls slowly eat away at their (current) face value (but also expecting a surprise climb, any day, sometime this year), an idea came to me*.

Forget radar, too slow and complicated to integrate with NN / Vision AI.

Something way easier and useful IMHO would be to incorporate a version of convoy assist driving: assuming there will be more and more Teslas on the roads, Tesla HQ would know which cars could share a segment of road driving, and sync their positions so one could follow the other - the advantage would be that the second (third etc) would benefit from the lead car driver's attention.

They would "see" ahead better than the lead car would as that they would also register that lead car's vision info.
More daring even would be to have following cars follow very closely, thus reducing air drag and improving fuel uh EWH economy - since they see / communicate w/ea other they could do so with extreme precision and confidence.

*and I hope some Tesla engineers read this, I'd be thrilled if it were implemented, tho if it makes sense, it probably is in the pipeline already.

PS. IF our political leaders had any sense they would incorporate V2X tech into our infrastructure and accelerate standards for X2X communications. That would really make sense, also actually remove a big chunk of Tesla's advantage, so rescue legacy car makers. Not going to happen of course, Jimmy Carter was probably the last elected political leader who had enough tech common sense and leadership to understand any of this.

 

[jbcarioca]

Yes, but you won't find orange in a Tesla.

Of course you will. Wraps abound on Teslas

 

[Dancing Lemur]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1404696473833553922

Herbert Diess on the G7 failing to set a date to end coal-based power production:
That’s not enough, G7. Disappointing outcome. We need to exit coal much earlier! EVs are key to reach the climate goals 2030. But EVs only make sense with green energy, letting EVs run on coal is regulatory nonsense.

I’m starting to like this guy.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1404696473833553922

Herbert Diess on the G7 failing to set a date to end coal-based power production:
That’s not enough, G7. Disappointing outcome. We need to exit coal much earlier! EVs are key to reach the climate goals 2030. But EVs only make sense with green energy, letting EVs run on coal is regulatory nonsense.

I’m starting to like this guy.

The big news will come in November from Glasgow:
UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) at the SEC – Glasgow 2021

 

[SarahsDad]

Nice new "not an ad" from Tesla

https://twitter.com/x/status/1404731755064659970

 

[UkNorthampton]

The big news will come in November from Glasgow:
UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) at the SEC – Glasgow 2021

Deep fried (using renewables) environmentally friendly 10,000 mile journey Tim Tams?

 

[2daMoon]

I'm hoping that Tesla will soon become a major power producer in Texas. There's plenty of room on the GigaTexas site for batteries and solar. (among other available wide open spaces)

What with the warnings already to start conserving power in Texas due to stress on ERCOT's grid it is sounding a lot like the problem Australia solved in Hornsdale.

 

[mzairboy]

That would be interesting if four Cybertrucks were really roaming around the country test driving. I'm not sure I believe him on that, I mean wouldn't we have pics of public sightings if this were true?

I came across this photo of a tarped Cybertruck last night. Real or fake, I'm not sure. I don't know much about this YouTube channel, but I believe they were at the Plaid event and do collaborations with Brooks from Drag Times. Is Tesla sending out a few trucks before the next unveiling?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm hoping that Tesla will soon become a major power producer in Texas. There's plenty of room on the GigaTexas site for batteries and solar. (among other available wide open spaces)

What with the warnings already to start conserving power in Texas due to stress on ERCOT's grid it is sounding a lot like the problem Australia solved in Hornsdale.

Some folks think we need to advertise, I think Hornesdale style solutions in the US South will be more valuable than gold. ...or advertising.

 

[ZeApelido]

Looks like there is a private company near Giga Berlin that owns water rights and wants to offer 2million cubic meters/year to Tesla, just doesn´t know how to reach them properly - can someone here help?

Unternehmer bietet Tesla feinstes Wasser für Giga Berlin an – aber wie kommt es dorthin?

Wohl eher früher als später wird Tesla für seine deutsche Gigafactory mehr Wasser brauchen – dafür gibt es ein Angebot aus der Ferne.

translate.google.com

Tweet at @elonmusk, duh.

 

[jeewee3000]

Regarding margins on S Plaid, unless I'm misinterpreting, the car uses three AC induction motors, none of the Model 3 style PMSR. Depending on CapEx of the winding machine and per unit cost, these may be cheaper than the PMSR version.

Quick rundown (further tech discussion deserves a thread)

Key clues from Tweet:
Copper rotor
Coaxial cooling

Supporting data:
High power
High RPM
Quiet (no torque cogging)
Efficency (due to torque sleep)

AC induction makes the dual rear motor packaging simpler by removing the tail shaft mounted encoders. Other cost savings are elimination of the magnets and stacked laminates.

It will be interesting to find our how they eliminated the rotor heating issue. Could be a design change, or it could be the up sized radiator Elon called out along with new heat pump (still running in AC mode) loop design lets then send cold enough coolant into the motor to offset the heat generated.
This would also allow more aux heat generation from the motor, if needed for cold weather operation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1404128430585618433

View attachment 673546

Notice how Elon uses a specific term for "that part of the company building the production equipment or factory (i.e. the machine that builds the machine)": Tesla Automation (the branch providing Tesla with its lead over its competitors).


Other known branches of Tesla:
Tesla Motors (the one most known to WallStreet)
Tesla Energy (the one WS keeps underestimating)
Tesla Insurance (the one almost no one talks about)
Tesla A.I. (the wildcard)

So the current stock price isn't $617, really. It's $123,5 for each of the above branches. #bullish

 

[Baumisch]

Little pre-market OT - Japan EV Raving JEVRA is racing production EVs ,
look at this race - (10:22 for highlight)

It's cute how the Leafs get lapped - but it's very impressive that after 14 of 27 laps at 10:22 in the Video the Taycan get's overtaken by ALL Model 3s he passed earlier - he couldn't pass No1 Model3 yet and then overheats and is just coming in before the fastest Leaf over the full 27 Laps - major LOL

Just think about what a single Plaid Model S would have done to this race ... he could have ended and ordered a Burger right in time for the Taycan to come in

Am I reading that right - all Model 3s finished 1 LAP ahead of the Taycan in the end ?? - that Porsche was cooking I guess.

 

[lascavarian]

Two years ago!?! Those have to be some DEEP in da money options...no?

Bought mine more about 15 months ago In a taxable acct. Going to exercise with margin and hold all for a few more months. Will be selling CC to offset some of the interest expense.

Goal will be to sell much less than half of shares by holding longer into the opening of 2 more factories (FSD?j In 2022.

Measured decision vs risk of market black swan event. Risk of higher taxes on LT cap gains. All good and made easier by the 5 for 1 split adding flexibility. Hoping for another split in the next 18 months or so but only icing on cake.

I think lots of this is happening this month bumping volume a bit.

 

[Buckminster]

Deep fried (using renewables) environmentally friendly 10,000 mile journey Tim Tams?

Some may require a little knowledge to get this joke:

5 Places to Try a Deep Fried Mars Bar in Glasgow - Glasgow Living