Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

Ford Mustang Mach-E Proves It's A Winner In 456-Mile Tahoe Road Trip

We road trip in the Ford Mustang Mach-E to find out if it's a capable EV. Turns out, it's among the best EVs you can buy today.

insideevs.com

Tesla advantages are software, updates and charging infrastructure. Ford advantages are lots of service centers to get help, and hardware build quality. Can't get locked out etc since ford's use a B pillar combo lock to gain entry.

If charging infrastructure improves alot over time it will help Ford and the ev industry overall most.

I think cost will still matter most to the masses with the EV push though.

Ford's window of opportunity is before the EV tax credits are once again applicable for both Tesla and GM. But looks like they cannot scale as much during this time.
The infrastructure bill, however could help the likes of Ford, in that the Govt will create the charging stations for them.


C-Suits from VM, Ford and even GM trying twitter to emulate EM there as well. Ford execs were boasting titbits until they had to do a recall for like all 1500 vehicles delivered to customers.

Ford had me thinking of the taycan and the ipace.

Tesla will beat competition on both tech and price (4860 cells, 25K cars etc.) in the long run.

 

[lafrisbee]

what’s the latest with GF1?

the footprint hasn’t expanded much in ~2yrs
obv the revamping of the existing lines with panasonic etc etc


but why hasn’t there been any further expansion? (or maybe we just don’t know about it?)

if they expect to put the semi there, then is it safe to expect 4680 production there?
if so, then why wasn’t that mentioned at battery day?

is there something with panasonic partnership constraining them from making anything but 2170 there?

there we also rumors about water issues in sparks preventing them from expansion...

but what is the real deal w gf1?

What the hell is a GF1?

 

[Singuy]

Has anyone analyzed the Ford Mach -E demand/market share situation ... for the last week articles have been inundating my news feeds indicating Ford taking share from TSLA i presume it is paid for advertising ... any thoughts ... sorry if already addressed I am way behind on my TMC reading ... new format slowing me down

So far everyone seems to be giving the Mach e pretty good reviews. I expect the demand to be as good as their production capacity, so having 99kwh battery pack is not good for margins or production capacity.

Also marketshare calculation is pointless until the market is saturated. I expect "market share" to drop for Tesla as it's mathematically impossible for Tesla to scale production fast enough to maintain the 80% market share. Only way to do it if they can make 20 million cars by 2025 which is not in the realm of possibility.

 

[15Peter20]

More nothingburger:
"General Motors has signed a joint development agreement with SolidEnergy Systems (SES) to develop lithium metal batteries for use in its future EVs, and released further details of the company’s next generation Ultium battery technology."

The "information" GM release further down in the article is that 'EVs are expensive because batteries and we think they should be cheaper'.

Next-generation battery technology for future EVs developed by General Motors | Automotive Powertrain Technology International

www.enginetechnologyinternational.com

 

[jerry33]

What the hell is a GF1?

Depends on context. Two timing or Gigafactory One, Sparks, Nevada.

 

[lafrisbee]

Aren't they planning on only selling 50,000 this year anyway? So around 7% of Tesla's estimated 2021 deliveries.

Wait just a second. If Ford produces and sells 50,000 vehicles and at the end of the year Tesla has 50,000 cars sitting on their back lot.....?

 

[jerry33]

Wait just a second. If Ford produces and sells 50,000 vehicles and at the end of the year Tesla has 50,000 cars sitting on their back lot.....?

And don't forget that Ford selling 50,000 cars just means moving the cars from the factory to the dealership. Dealers are legacy auto's customers.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Ford Mustang Mach-E Proves It's A Winner In 456-Mile Tahoe Road Trip

We road trip in the Ford Mustang Mach-E to find out if it's a capable EV. Turns out, it's among the best EVs you can buy today.

insideevs.com

Tesla advantages are software, updates and charging infrastructure. Ford advantages are lots of service centers to get help, and hardware build quality. Can't get locked out etc since ford's use a B pillar combo lock to gain entry.

If charging infrastructure improves alot over time it will help Ford and the ev industry overall most.

I think cost will still matter most to the masses with the EV push though.

I stopped reading at “Ford has better build quality”....

 

[Nocturnal]

So far everyone seems to be giving the Mach e pretty good reviews. I expect the demand to be as good as their production capacity, so having 99kwh battery pack is not good for margins or production capacity.

Also marketshare calculation is pointless until the market is saturated. I expect "market share" to drop for Tesla as it's mathematically impossible for Tesla to scale production fast enough to maintain the 80% market share. Only way to do it if they can make 20 million cars by 2025 which is not in the realm of possibility.

People who claim that Tesla "lost market share" because they have a lower % of total EV sales are clueless. There is no EV market, it's the auto market. I roll my eyes so much when people like Gordo talk about this.

 

[15Peter20]

I stopped reading at “Ford has better build quality”....

Is there such a thing as an impartial car review any more?

 

[keydiver]

Ford Mustang Mach-E Proves It's A Winner In 456-Mile Tahoe Road Trip

We road trip in the Ford Mustang Mach-E to find out if it's a capable EV. Turns out, it's among the best EVs you can buy today.

insideevs.com

Can't get locked out etc since ford's use a B pillar combo lock to gain entry.

Yes, but if I recall the review correctly, they totally ignored the fact that every Tesla also comes with 2 keycards to keep in your wallet as backup. Or, the fact that you can call your significant other to unlock it with the app remotely.

 

[scaesare]

A car that isnt in production isnt having production issues. Can have the Model S/X Refresh specific call and not show the Plaid+

I think most people would say difficulty or tardiness getting a car in to productions is a production problem.

 

[generalenthu]

what’s the latest with GF1?

the footprint hasn’t expanded much in ~2yrs
obv the revamping of the existing lines with panasonic etc etc


but why hasn’t there been any further expansion? (or maybe we just don’t know about it?)

if they expect to put the semi there, then is it safe to expect 4680 production there?
if so, then why wasn’t that mentioned at battery day?

is there something with panasonic partnership constraining them from making anything but 2170 there?

there we also rumors about water issues in sparks preventing them from expansion...

but what is the real deal w gf1?

About 5 years or so ago, I was really excited about giga nevada. Made the trek there and bought a piece of land near the factory.


That was a dud investment relative to what the stock did.

As you say, water issues are there but not the main driver and water can be recycled. The bigger problem was attracting the right kind of skilled people to work in the factory. Reno area doesn't have a industrial base from which to pull. And what little they managed to pull saturated the local economy. There are issues with schools if you want to live near the factory in Sparks. Reno is a bit too far, and housing prices went up quite a bit in both places. So it's not that attractive anymore.

The local government is fantastic though. But they can only do so much.

I think this was lesson for Tesla to establish their next base in larger cities with established industry and certainly Shanghai / Berlin fit this. I think Austin does too, but not too familiar with industry around that area.

Giga nevada was decent from a fremont logistics perspective, but the focus will move on to Texas. I still think it can be a hub for semi and energy storage, especially if they can figure a way to make these a lot less manpower intensive. I think this was also a driver for Elon to push for automating everything. Getting skilled employees in the middle of nowhere is tough.

 

[Artful Dodger]

While the number reads "$670", the charts look like $700.

I pay more attention to the change in the daily max-pain number (which ISN'T displayed or archived). Here's my history for today's Options Expiries: 3/12/21

As you can see, we bottomed out 4 sessions ago, and Max-Pain has increased by about $40 since then. Still, we're well below the $700 max-pain level from 6 days ago, and max-pain has been in a downtrend for all of March ($755 on Mar 1st).

Also, you can see the same trend in the max. open interest strike price on both sides (Calls and Puts). This paints a pretty clear picture that whoever is trading these derivative contracts thinks that the SP is headed down.

Now, is this the tail wagging the dog, or is this the actual dog? Some say that the derivatives market is 20x the equities market. But of course, there's no public information available about the size of the TSLA derivative market. Just a conincidence? I think not.

Cheers!

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Yes, but if I recall the review correctly, they totally ignored the fact that every Tesla also comes with 2 keycards to keep in your wallet as backup. Or, the fact that you can call your significant other to unlock it with the app remotely.

Or you can just break the window with a large metal ball.

 

[scaesare]

Yes. DBE allows Tesla to make the cells faster and using less energy but isn't necessary for Plaid+ level 4680 cells. It lets them do it cheaper and scale faster though (if it works as planned). Perhaps this is why the price was increased on the Plaid+?

Well, maybe.

At battery day, one of the points made is that the wet solvent methodology of electrode formation also leaves small voids in the electrode itself when the solvent is evaporated out. This leads to a less dense electrode, and thus reduced energy (and perhaps power) density for the cell.

While I don't expect it's a huge difference, I also don't know how close to the edge Plaid+ powertrains are pushing the pack... so it's possible that a non DBE-formulated 4680 may not be as well suited to the Plaid + platform as a DBE version.

 

[ninpb]

And don't forget that Ford selling 50,000 cars just means moving the cars from the factory to the dealership. Dealers are legacy auto's customers.

Remember just a year or less when IPace was for sale it had huge rebates and mark downs in the 8k range. Mach E is gonna have the same fate but I'll give them 16 months.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Remember just a year or less when IPace was for sale it had huge rebates and mark downs in the 8k range. Mach E is gonna have the same fate but I'll give them 16 months.

I expect that by Q3 of this year, it's going to be very apparent how much of a failure the competition is. ID3, ID4, Mach E, E-tron, and so on. By that point the pent up demand will long be gone and it was become painfully clear how wide the gap is.

While the Mach E is the newest of the bunch and will have the most pent up demand, Congress passing a new EV credit that includes Tesla once again will take away it's one advantage which was have the credit all to itself. I expect sales to dry up pretty quickly once the new EV bill is close to passing as consumers that were interested because of the cheaper price flock back to Tesla

Edit: Of course the flip side of that is once the EV credit is passed that includes Tesla once again, demand might spike up so much that delivery times are pushed way out, thus driving some consumers back to a Mach E that can't wait multiple quarters to buy a Model Y. So I could see that scenario happening

 

[StealthP3D]

My M3 for sure feels more like a car-of-the-world as opposed to 'murican muscle.

My Performance Model 3 feels more like it was imported from the Pleiades through a special wormhole that Elon discovered and is keeping secret.

 

[Pezpunk]

Congress passing a new EV credit that includes Tesla once again will take away it's one advantage which was have the credit all to itself.

is this actually happening, though? I haven't heard anything about it in weeks.