Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KnoxEVfan]

Powering up: UK hills could be used as energy 'batteries'

Smaller scale pumped hydro which should be cheaper and have far more potential sites than traditional pumped hydro. Potential competitor to Tesla battery storage. It will loose out to batteries in being slower to react, and to traditional pumped hydro (where available) due to smaller capacity. Civil engineering and planning delays probably means that this can't be deployed quickly.

I first heard about this idea when I was living in Europe, in 2007. It was all talk, no action back then. Like nuclear powerplants, the NIMBY factor might well be a huge obstacle.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

I have a question, what will happen to stock price today?

This $850 level has been important since it was first hit a month ago. Dips below it have tended to drop to support at 800.

It would be nice if the good guys rally here and cause a pop; otherwise it may be [6 more weeks of winter] a few more weeks of churn.

 

[HG Wells]

It bothers me a little that VOLUME has been low for the last few days.
Have day traders abandoned TSLA or have all the robinhood crews gone bust ?

 

[goinfraftw]

It bothers me a little that VOLUME has been low for the last few days.
Have day traders abandoned TSLA or have all the robinhood crews gone bust ?

So, are we at 2/15/2021 yet?

The infrastructure bill and, practically, nothing regarding a climate-agenda spurred with the US Govt can get started until after this impeachment trial. As an aside:

 

[coolmanfever]

It bothers me a little that VOLUME has been low for the last few days.
Have day traders abandoned TSLA or have all the robinhood crews gone bust ?

everyone is buying Bitcoins now

 

[mltv]

Tesla China's $25k car to be sold globally, confirms exec in state media interview

 

[StealthP3D]

Serious question...If we cannot control Battery technology, and we are setting up 2 new gigafactories, are we concerned if one of the many new Battery start-ups come up with a new battery technology that is much better than what we currently have and what we are planning as we have already committed resources to our current Giga set up. There is so much capacity coming on stream over the next few years and the Europeans will be building their own plants funded by the EU, Should we be somewhat concerned?

Yes, you should be VERY concerned! Assuming you work in the legacy auto or oil/gas industries, that is. These industries are already concerned about how fast the transition to renewables is happening but here's the funny part: It's going to happen even faster than you can even imagine. Randy Bachman said it best: You ain't seen n-n-n-n-nothing yet!

Spoiler: Amazing sight in the dawn sky this morn (off topic)

I was star-gazing on the deck of my ski cabin this morning from 4:30 am, no moon, dark skies, pondering the mystery of the sheer number of galaxies out there while enjoying the crisp but calm 22 degree air and pre-dawn silence. After a little more than 90 minutes had passed, a train of satellites appeared in a string, looking like a string of diamonds barreling across the sky from west to east. I only had about 40-degrees of open view, framed by tall trees, I could see about 6-8 at a time. I started counting at the first one and, over the next two minutes, they just kept coming until I had counted 60 in total!

The last time I saw freshly released Starlink satellites their trajectory was at nearly right angles and I missed most of them since I only saw 5 or 6. I was a little surprised this mornings display wasn't more spread out considering it's been 5 days since the launch so it must take some time to migrate into their proper orbits. Some were almost side-by-side, and some off-set, creating the appearance of a shallow zig-zag train across the pre-dawn sky. I imagined they were shiny little Bitcoins, arcing across the night sky and right into Tesla's coffers.

 

[Todd Burch]

6 month chart. Pretty strong general consolidation around $850 since the beginning of the year. Historically, we see this plateau for awhile, then a run up. Go ahead market, I'm patient.

 

[goinfraftw]

Biden to Issue Infrastructure Plan. What Role Will Microgrids Play?

"Sen. Lisa Murkowski, a Republican, has been a strong backer of microgrids for several years. Her home state, Alaska, is among the top states for number of installed microgrids. And, in the House, a microgrid developer is among its members: Rep. Sean Casten, a Democrat from Illinois, who was elected in 2018."

and

"“Right now, every voice is being raised in Washington, so it’s easy for good solutions to get drowned out in the noise,” said Cameron Brooks, president of E9 Insight, a regulatory advisory firm that focuses on the activities of the state public utility commissions across the country."

 

[phantasms]

Any of you options whisperers have any thoughts on where they're looking to push this thing today? Clearly a walkdown but where are they going?

edit: here we go.

edit..nevermind. they keep going for the big push but then it gets bought up right away. good sign! Still think it's going lower before a hard bounce.

 

[st_lopes]

What is the reason for your comment #5? Most of us probably expect one announcement this year. Considering the properties at Berlin and (esp) Austin are years away from being fully developed, Tesla would truly be shifting into "plaid mode" in their expansion if 4 areas were under construction at the same time.

I fully realize human resources are the limiting factor, not cash. Do you have particular locations in mind? I strongly believe Indonesia will happen. Another China factory would make sense. Don't see anything else likely in the near-term.

We know Tesla won't pay dividends or just let their cash pile grow into a mountain. They will put it to work.

You've hit on a lot of the reasons I believe we'll see two new factory announcements, namely access to more talent and the fact that they are sitting on a mountain of cash. Localized factories are human resource attraction plays. Universities around the world are pumping out engineering talent, and not all talent wants to emigrate to California or Texas. Having a localized design studio allows Tesla to continue its mission of attracting top talent around the world.

I interpret that Tesla now explicitly calling out its competencies in factory design, die casting, and manufacturing processes as a strong signal that they have a number of new locations already in mind. Locations may also not be limited solely to manufacturing facilities. I think we'll start seeing R&D centres as well as continued raw material or other supply chain investments.

Indonesia is definitely on the short list and an announcement in Q1-Q2 would not come as a surprise to anyone in this forum.

I'm not as bullish on India simply due to the business environment being historically very unfavorable towards foreign investment (extremely difficult to get capital in and out of India, and the tax authorities are notoriously aggressive and regularly raid offices without much cause). At one point I had equally expected an announcement for a Latin American factory, but for similar reasons to India, that may be further out than the near term. The exception may be Mexico, which could be a port of entry to Central and South America (significant Energy markets as well), and with new US administration that may be perceived to be more pro-globalized trade, that may be back on the table.

If I were throwing darts, Indonesia, another Asian country (Japan or South Korea perhaps), and Mexico would be my guess on near term announcements. I would also place equal weight on a potential US announcement for continued battery and other energy product development and manufacturing.

 

[Mengy]

Tesla China's $25k car to be sold globally, confirms exec in state media interview

I have a hunch we are going to see the "Model 2" in production by next year, 2022. That's much sooner than I expected but it truly seems like it's very possible at this point.

If so that would be incredible.

 

[phantasms]

I have a hunch we are going to see the "Model 2" in production by next year, 2022. That's much sooner than I expected but it truly seems like it's very possible at this point.

If so that would be incredible.

Agreed, I see them unveiling it just before production as to not take away from Model 3 sales.

 

[Prunesquallor]

You've hit on a lot of the reasons I believe we'll see two new factory announcements, namely access to more talent and the fact that they are sitting on a mountain of cash. Localized factories are human resource attraction plays. Universities around the world are pumping out engineering talent, and not all talent wants to emigrate to California or Texas. Having a localized design studio allows Tesla to continue its mission of attracting top talent around the world.

I interpret that Tesla now explicitly calling out its competencies in factory design, die casting, and manufacturing processes as a strong signal that they have a number of new locations already in mind. Locations may also not be limited solely to manufacturing facilities. I think we'll start seeing R&D centres as well as continued raw material or other supply chain investments.

Indonesia is definitely on the short list and an announcement in Q1-Q2 would not come as a surprise to anyone in this forum.

I'm not as bullish on India simply due to the business environment being historically very unfavorable towards foreign investment (extremely difficult to get capital in and out of India, and the tax authorities are notoriously aggressive and regularly raid offices without much cause). At one point I had equally expected an announcement for a Latin American factory, but for similar reasons to India, that may be further out than the near term. The exception may be Mexico, which could be a port of entry to Central and South America (significant Energy markets as well), and with new US administration that may be perceived to be more pro-globalized trade, that may be back on the table.

If I were throwing darts, Indonesia, another Asian country (Japan or South Korea perhaps), and Mexico would be my guess on near term announcements. I would also place equal weight on a potential US announcement for continued battery and other energy product development and manufacturing.

Even after Austin is up and running, Tesla will still be completely dependent on Fremont for worldwide Model S & X and North American Model 3 production. I think another U.S. (or North American) Giga is necessary to 1) protect against a Fremont Black Swan and 2) allow upgrade of Fremont assembly with acceptable production interruption.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

are we concerned if one of the many new Battery start-ups come up with a new battery technology that is much better than what we currently have

I think if such a startup exists, Tesla has its eyes on it and would probably acquire it.

 

[jbcarioca]

You've hit on a lot of the reasons I believe we'll see two new factory announcements, namely access to more talent and the fact that they are sitting on a mountain of cash. Localized factories are human resource attraction plays...
Locations may also not be limited solely to manufacturing facilities. I think we'll start seeing R&D centres as well as continued raw material or other supply chain investments.

Indonesia is definitely on the short list and an announcement in Q1-Q2 would not come as a surprise to anyone in this forum.

I'm not as bullish on India...

If I were throwing darts, Indonesia, another Asian country (Japan or South Korea perhaps), and Mexico would be my guess on near term announcements. I would also place equal weight on a potential US announcement for continued battery and other energy product development and manufacturing.

At this point I suspect that the primary driving forces will be access to raw materials plus specific incentives that accelerate deployment and adoption. Much of the world is in flux at the moment debating on energy policy and industrial development. Thus I suspect there will be a surprise or two coming in the next year. Indonesia is likely, but another EU location, another China location, and a surprise will happen. Indonesia certainly will be one large battery factory.

It would also be quite likely that some Tilburg-style CKD+ factories might crop in in places such as South Africa, Argentina, Israel or elsewhere. Both Brazil and Mexico are probable for different reasons but 2022 is most likely for those. All those unusual ones are most likely not to be Gigafactories but will be purpose-built to accommodate Model 2? or equivalent world cars.

Unless disaster strikes 2022 is likely to be all about broadening the Tesla footprint. Thus TE and automotive will have different emphasis depending on local conditions.

I'll wait until next year to know whether I have a clue about this or not.

 

[StealthP3D]

Elon's brilliance and fearlessness has always been tinged with a bit of what appears to be craziness as well as unpredictability. In the long run, many of his actions and goals which initially seemed to be based on foolish optimism actually turn out to be visionary. Electric cars, reusable rockets, direct-to-consumer car sales, all seemed absurd previously.

Elon only appears unpredictable and crazy to to us normal blind folks whose brains are not wired in such a way to allow us to process and reiteratively reprocess vast amounts of information (observations) until a vision of the most likely future comes out at the end. Elon's brain, on the other hand, is equipped to process like this, mostly unconsciously. You might say he is making good use of the amazing neural net he was born with. In earlier times, these people were called various things from seers to witches. Sometimes people like this are simply thought of as being extra intuitive. Some thought that people with vision were possessed by spirits. In reality, they could just process the same information we are all exposed to much more efficiently than we can and see the most likely outcome. Sometimes the answer doesn't even seem to make logical sense.

Elon has learned to trust his intuitive vision because it has proven to be useful and more accurate than not. I believe that is why he came up with or adopted the phrase, "Don't doubt your vibe". Elon has learned he has the best 'luck' when he goes with the flow and does whatever seems best. I'm sure he filters it with the left side of his brain by thinking logically and asking himself, "what's the worse thing that could happen?" and, as long as it's not complete disaster, he goes with what he intuitively thinks will end with the best result.

As an investor, that's exactly the kind of CEO I want!

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Any of you options whisperers have any thoughts on where they're looking to push this thing today? Clearly a walkdown but where are they going?

edit: here we go.

edit..nevermind. they keep going for the big push but then it gets bought up right away. good sign! Still think it's going lower before a hard bounce.

Friday’s close looks to be just a touch shy of $860 but above $857.50.

 

[jbcarioca]

Also, biometrics are to be avoided because they are not revocable (e.g. if a criminal copies and abuses your fingerprint, you can't just have a new one issued).

These days facial recognition has largely replaced fingerprints. FWIW, as a citizen of both Brazil and the US I have facial recognition on both sides. Today in some US airports, MIA last week for example) I did not even need to show the passport, just confirm the data displayed by facial recognition. In Brazil it is still to step, passport and facial recognition. In both countries I have not had to speak with a human being at all. My bank in Brazil also uses facial recognition including online transaction confirmation, just like Apple Pay and others.

In other applications retina scans are used too.
These days most advanced users no longer use fingerprints at all. They are too unreliable in general since as much as 15% of the population typically has worn figures anyway. Tesla cameras are almost certain to begin using facial recognition for driver identification, although they don't do it yet.

 

[Drax7]

Elon only appears unpredictable and crazy to to us normal blind folks whose brains are not wired in such a way to allow us to process and reiteratively reprocess vast amounts of information (observations) until a vision of the most likely future comes out at the end. Elon's brain, on the other hand, is equipped to process like this, mostly unconsciously. You might say he is making good use of the amazing neural net he was born with. In earlier times, these people were called various things from seers to witches. Sometimes people like this are simply thought of as being extra intuitive. Some thought that people with vision were possessed by spirits. In reality, they could just process the same information we are all exposed to much more efficiently than we can and see the most likely outcome. Sometimes the answer doesn't even seem to make logical sense.

Elon has learned to trust his intuitive vision because it has proven to be useful and more accurate than not. I believe that is why he came up with or adopted the phrase, "Don't doubt your vibe". Elon has learned he has the best 'luck' when he goes with the flow and does whatever seems best. I'm sure he filters it with the left side of his brain by thinking logically and asking himself, "what's the worse thing that could happen?" and, as long as it's not complete disaster, he goes with what he intuitively thinks will end with the best result.

As an investor, that's exactly the kind of CEO I want!

Don’t buy this psychic babble explanation, it’s pure rationalization
Equally plausible is that he is somewhat delusional .

Take the utility of the falcon doors , that cost Tesla a considerable amount.