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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Looks like today will bring more of the same. All futures are green, major markets in Europe are green, and Tesla is red.

A part of me slowly starts to acknowledge that the impact on the stock price this week might not be what many of us were hoping for.

Who knows. Maybe it goes nuts on 10 minutes before close on Friday...?

For my part, I do need some more cash out of my position (house purchase, as many know) prior to February, and I have two plans of action on how to achieve this*:

a) cash-out on out a spike, sell puts against the capital to get back in, or not, doesn't matter
b) sell quarterly covered calls 20-30% above current SP, rinse/repeat

As it stands, I'm just watching and waiting, see where we are Friday towards close...

Note I still hold quite a lot of June 2022 $250 LEAPS, so even if I cashed-out of my core-shares (which looks unlikely at this point in time), I am looking to exercise these when the time comes, hopefully funded by the same date $700's

*note that for the core shares there's no capital-gains tax due, so buying/selling, shares/calls/puts is a realistic option
 
Only if you entered your order to (also) execute after-hours.

Correct. Market orders not executed AH and (in my case can only enter an AH order 15 minutes after main close).

Likewise, note that options cannot be traded outside main market, at least I don't have this possibility.

And my final constraint is that I cannot exercise options early (for example I would love to exercise my June 2022 $250's now and then sell calls against them, but I cannot :()

I don't know if these are general rules, or broker-specific in some cases.
 
Correct. Market orders not executed AH and (in my case can only enter an AH order 15 minutes after main close).

Likewise, note that options cannot be traded outside main market, at least I don't have this possibility.

And my final constraint is that I cannot exercise options early (for example I would love to exercise my June 2022 $250's now and then sell calls against them, but I cannot :()

I don't know if these are general rules, or broker-specific in some cases.

A lot of retirement accounts won't allow after hours trading either.
 
Last summer a Circle-K station in Lillesand, Norway had more customers charging than filling fossil fuels. It's a nice milestone!

As you can see in the pic they have Tesla chargers (right) and Ionity chargers (top) in addition to fossil fuels (left). I have charged here several times and it's a nice place to stop on the Norwegian riviera Sørlandet.
Kjerringland.jpeg


In Norway about 60% of new cars sold are pure EVs and an additional 20% are hybrids.

Source in Norwegian: Rekordsalg av elbiler i 2020: – Flere ladekunder enn kunder som fylte drivstoff
 
I thought the oldest shareholders (and influencers) received "random" invites to battery day. Did anyone else here get such an invite? We did but did not go.

Analysts, Journalists, some institutional investors, and hand-selected influencers did get an invite called 'golden ticket' for battery day.

I was honored to be in the influencer group
 
Another EV milestone while we wait for the Index Funds to wake up:

Hyundai Motors in Norway have stopped selling pure fossil cars. From now on they will only sell EVs and hybrids.

Of 7256 Hyundai cars sold in Norway this year 94% were electric and most of the rest were hybrids.

Source in Norwegian: Ingen biler uten plugg
 
I wonder if those 40,700 calls 700 are going to play a role this week. Most of their holders bought them to profit from an inclusion spike (I’m not a big fan of complicated theories about index funds using options to acquire shares). If today and tomorrow SP stays flat or even drops a bit, it’s unlikely most will sell them. They were worth more than 30 a week ago, only 4.85 now and probably less tomorrow, so might as well keep them for a hail mary gamble. In fact, if they drop more in value, more gamblers may start pickung up these calls as we approach Friday, hoping inclusion day will still bring a squeeze. That by itself may become a driving force this week.
It doesn’t work like that. The closer the calls are to expiration, the less delta and gamma they have, meaning a $1 move on Wednesday will have much less of an effect on MM than the same $1 move on Monday from the same share price and same OI. In other words, it will take exponentially more money to drive the price up with call and share purchases as we get closer to the weekend. SP can still go up from here but I will stop looking at option gravitational pull and start hoping for big buyers to jump in.
 
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It doesn’t work like that. The closer the calls are to expiration, the less delta and gamma they have, meaning a $1 move on Wednesday will have much less of an effect on MM than the same $1 move on Monday from the same share price and same OI. In other words, it will take exponentially more money to drive the price up with call and share purchases as we get closer to the weekend.

I ment: Index funds goal isnt do drive the price up, but to get their needed share the cheapest.

If they buy calls, this get them shares at a fixed price, i.e. $700.

Index funds then can buy what else they need through ordinary share buying... and if this drive SP up - its ok, as they have secured cheaper shares through cheap call options. This will give them a lower cost basis, that just buying through the market - which drive SP up.

Potentially - they could have bought all shares through 12/18 call options? 400.000 call contracts? If they could get them cheap enough close to expiry and then exercise them all? vacuum the options market for all itm, atm, close otm call options - and then buy what else they need in shares.
 
Wasnt what I ment. Their goal isnt do drive the price up, but to get their needed share the cheapest.

If they buy calls, this get them shares at a fixed price, i.e. $700.

Index funds then can buy what else they need through ordinary share buying... and if this drive SP up - its ok, as they have secured cheaper shares through cheap call options. This will give them a lower cost basis, that just buying through the market - which drive SP up.
But why bother? If you are a straight index fund(only tracking the SP500 as closely as possible) it makes no sense to try to be smarter than the market. Just buy at whatever the price is at the inclusion and your good.
 
Interesting video. Mainly talks of points similar to those recently mentioned by a MarketWatch article. What you guys reckon about Tesla's future competition in the Chinese market, especially looking into 2021 ?


I bought Tesla stock because after driving the Model S, it was clearly the best automobile ever made -- head and shoulders above anything else on the market, and clearly and obviously at least a decade ahead of the competition (Model 3/Y didn't exist yet). My experience driving and later owning the car put everything i read about Tesla into a different context.

As for NIO: From my perspective, it seems foolish to blindly risk money betting on a product i have no way of testing out first-hand, trusting only the word of internet sources.

I don't want to be misunderstood: I'm not saying NIO won't be successful (although at a glance, i'd say their lack of vertical integration already precludes them from being the next Tesla). All i'm willing to say for sure, though, is that without first-hand experience with a company, i'm unwilling to bet my own money it.

The only other stock i've ever invested heavily in was AMD, after building multiple 6-GPU crypto rigs using their products. Maximizing gains / minimizing risks mining crypto required me to go deep down the rabbit hole of architectures and product roadmaps and at one point tracking yields and deliveries and so on.

I guess what i'm trying to say is the best research has to start with first-hand interaction with the product, it's the only way to learn which factors are important and which are red herrings, hype, FUD, or irrelevant. I wouldn't know where to begin evaluating NIO because i have no way of driving one, and no experience being a Chinese consumer shopping for a car. I don't know the product, and i don't understand the market. I don't really see how anyone outside of China can.

upload_2020-12-16_7-21-53.png

(one of the rigs i built ... this thing kept my office warm all winter, with the thermostat off and the windows open!)
 
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I can't imagine Tesla is will build anywhere in England. What would be the point? It's not an enormous market. It does not have easy access to raw materials. It may or may not have access to the European market without trade barriers. Labor is not especially inexpensive. Logistics for supply chain and deliveries cannot be better than somewhere in central Europe. It might give easier export access to USA, but we'll have plenty of terafactories here to service the domestic market. I don't understand the play.

It is a ~2.5M/year unit market.

It will either have tariff free access to the European market or its domestic market will have 10% tariff protection.

If Tesla has a 500k unit GF with 10% advantage vs the Europeans/Asians I can't imagine a scenario where Tesla doesn't capture 20% market share.
 
I ment: Index funds goal isnt do drive the price up, but to get their needed share the cheapest.

If they buy calls, this get them shares at a fixed price, i.e. $700.

Index funds then can buy what else they need through ordinary share buying... and if this drive SP up - its ok, as they have secured cheaper shares through cheap call options. This will give them a lower cost basis, that just buying through the market - which drive SP up.

Potentially - they could have bought all shares through 12/18 call options? 400.000 call contracts? If they could get them cheap enough close to expiry and then exercise them all? vacuum the options market for all itm, atm, close otm call options - and then buy what else they need in shares.
My bad. My phone betrayed me. I was trying to reply to Fred.
 
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Looks like today will bring more of the same. All futures are green, major markets in Europe are green, and Tesla is red.

A part of me slowly starts to acknowledge that the impact on the stock price this week might not be what many of us were hoping for.

Pre-market is probably meaningless, as it's unlikely index funds will buy pre-market due to poor liquidity. It's just speculators opening or closing positions. The same thing likely happened all day long yesterday.

I suspect that what the European markets and US futures (and even indices) are doing over the next three days will also be meaningless, with the huge inclusion cloud hanging over TSLA trading.

Where we go the rest of this week will be determined by the dynamics of the timing by index funds, the number of shares that have been hoarded by speculators to flip, the price they want to get for those shares and the hope and fears of people trying to lock in some gains.