3 pieces casting, front, middle and back to form the BiW and maybe the wiring for robot
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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I think Elon just means giga casting. I am not sure if he will do cell to structure with 2170s but based on the time lines, I dont think 4680 will be in any 3s and Ys for a very long time. Model X and S probably but semi is probably priority and tri motor cyber trucks only.
Uhhh just because it's traded doesn't mean those shares were traded in a upward movement.
But anyways, technical is looking good for Tesla and there's a high chance of breaking out to 500 as the ABC correction for the qqq seems to be done. Trend has reversed to look bullish. Tesla closed above all it's moving averages.
- 200Gwh/y in 2022, 100GWh internal
So 100 GWh of Tesla cell production run-rate is planned for 2022, if that timeline holds, that is the best guide...
TLF predicts Rev 7 - (production ready) June 2021.
I would assume the rapid part of the ramp starts there, what that translates to in terms of products is hard to guess.
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Pretty sure volume has no bearing on price direction. High volume shows wide interest, could be bullish, could be bearish.
Not sure...can't quite put a finger on it...but you avatar bothers me.
Just preparing for the coming battle between good and cats.
dc_h
Active Member
He just loves engineering. He gets excited about new concepts and process improvements. The casting of front and back components means they can reduce body assembly processes by 50% or more. Combined with next generation wiring and electronic improvements and building the pack into the new body and they should reduce costs significantly. Can’t wait for a Munro tear down and see if they can reduce the cost of building the car as much as the battery.
Yes! The current welded wire is fiddly and don't provide a significant thermal bridge.
I was also thinking about voltage. I assume they don't want a monolithic 350v structure. But each column or two of cells could be a circuit with a fusible link on the end. That would be a modular electrical design without taking up extra physical space in the pack. So virtual modules of a sort.
Definitely not risk free in assembly, but the current packs are not risk free either.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yes, it's not just the 'structure'. It's the heat dissipation, which is axial in 4680s (cooling from top and bottom), while cooling is radial in 2170s (cooled by contact with the side of the bty can). It won't be trivial to design two different packs that fit in the same space, and share cooling connections.
I think its more likely Tesla just puts tabless 4680s in the Berlin Y, and accepts the best available level of bty tech wrt the other aspects of optimization, like anode/cathode chemistry, materials sourcing.
Cheers!
gabeincal
Active Member
You'll love it. We just picked up ours and can't stop driving it. 400 local miles in 4 days.
Send us a photo when you pick it / her up!
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
They can do cast body sections without utilizing the 4680 cells. Those cells are going to be very production limited for most of next year, I can't see them going into a high volume product like the Y that soon. Plus they'll be needed for the Cybertruck and Semi.
- 200Gwh/y in 2022, 100GWh internal
100 GWh external in 2022 might be a clue.... I'm not sure what the current number is, but 50 GWh would be close to an upper limit.
An extra 50 GWh of external cells are going somewhere...
100 GWh of internal cells are going somewhere... Say Model S/X 10-15 GWh, Semi 10-15 GWh.
I hope it is 60-70 GWh of Cybertrucks and energy storage....
But that extra 50 GWh of external cells are more likely to be energy storage...
Granted all this is happening by the end of 2022, but some of it must start happening in 2021.
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A day in Shanghai Tesla deliveries ....credit Twitter @Ray4Tesla
https://twitter.com/i/status/1284323625701486592
https://twitter.com/i/status/1284323625701486592
I personally think Elon is sandbagging. He’s been sandbagging a lot lately. If they are going to go with a new structurally redesign for Berlin and they are super close to getting the production right with the new battery cells then to me it would seem silly not to put these in the Berlin made model Ys. Do you think they would invest in 2170 cells in Berlin at this point?
Mokuzai
Member
Reconciling these two, it would seem that the 4680 cells are going to be reserved for Cybertruck, Semi...and based on specs the Plaid Model S...at least for now. "For now" seemingly being tied to the Austin factory as that is slated for Cybertruck and Semi production.
But then we know about the radical change to manufacturing for Model Y in Berlin...could that have something to do with reducing wiring? Or is that the single piece casting for front/rear/pack? Unless the front/rear casting can accommodate both the current Y pack and the future cast 4680 pack it would be silly to build the Berlin line for 2170 to only have to retool for 4680 later on...unless that's a really easy change?
Back to Austin, it also wouldn't make sense to tool the Y line for 2170 then retool for 4680 as well so what is going to be built there?
**IF** the cells were available in volume, I could see Berlin and Austin both being built for 4680 cells on all models they produce. Then once Austin is ramped have that supply the US for Model Y while Fremont re-tools then split the distribution east/west. This would imply some impressive sandbagging which has already been hinted at.
The next line to come online will be the Shanghai Model Y...I could see them sticking to 2170 in China for now.
Of course this is all conjecture. Really curious to see how they manage the different cell sizes going forward.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Since they likely won't have the volume in 4680 cells to do the Y it seems as if 2170 is the only option. My sense is it would be relatively easy to change the middle cast section to accommodate 4680's when they need to.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I think it will be relatively easy. Front and rear castings would remain the same and just redesign the interior of the central casting.
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