Tesla Supercharger network

[emupilot]

Even the top 10 are interesting. #10 is used 25% as much as #1 (894/3496). Although by looking at the list (with the blue bars underneath the locations) you wouldn't think so. The bars make it seem way more lopsided.

If the last 24 hours were on a weekend, there would probably be alot more traffic at intercity superchargers like Harris Ranch, Tejon Ranch, Barstow, and Newark.

 

[airj1012]

If the last 24 hours were on a weekend, there would probably be alot more traffic at intercity superchargers like Harris Ranch, Tejon Ranch, Barstow, and Newark.

All the feedback makes sense. Still not sure why the bars aren't more corresponding to the power consumed. Unless its total, or something odd like that. Seems like one of those "progress bars" on Windows that just isn't accurate.

 

[Cottonwood]

Good observation. However, I would imagine Fremont will always have the most energy usage because (for the foreseeable future) it has the largest concentration of Teslas in the immediate area. Also, the top ten is for the last 24 hours. I'm interested to see if that list fluctuates from week-to-week, month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter, etc.

Below are pictures of the Hawthorne Dashboard from a recent San Juan Capistrano post and from imgur: the simple image sharer.

These two 24-hour samples show results that are quite different for rankings. 24-hours is a small enough sample size that there seems to be a lot of variation. In addition, with the difference in the numbers for Gilroy, I am guessing that the second picture was weekend data and the first was weekday data.

Amazing similarity of numbers for San Juan Capistrano in the first picture and Hawthorne in the second. A few calculated numbers:

• Average Charge: San Juan, 34.2 kWh and Hawthorne, 35.8 kWh.
• Average Charge Rate: San Juan, 54 kW, 180 mph, and Hawthorne, 53.7 kW, 179 mph.
• Assuming 12 hours each day of equivalent max use, Stall utilization rate: San Juan, 44% and Hawthorne, 46%.

The 12 hours of equivalent max use means that that if I take the daily use and divide it by 12 hours, it equals the busy hour. 12 hours is a wild guess, but if you look at Capacity of Superchargers Using an Erlang-B Model, you will see that an 8-stall Supercharger site running at 45% capacity is just at the threshold for the queues to start getting long. A little more use at these sites, and queues will start forming!

I just stopped by the Hawthorne SC and spent some time viewing their new and improved charging screen. Looks like SJC's usage has well surpassed Hawthorne's. Funny. Earlier in this thread someone was complaining that they still didn't have a SC near them, while we were whining about this one taking so long, or the wait at Hawthorne being too much, etc, etc. This proves that this SpC was desperately needed. (sorry for the large file size)

View attachment 57661

Edit: I now see that this was just in the last 24 hours. They no longer post monthly usage.

- - - Updated - - -

All the feedback makes sense. Still not sure why the bars aren't more corresponding to the power consumed. Unless its total, or something odd like that. Seems like one of those "progress bars" on Windows that just isn't accurate.

The term for this kind of bar graph, is a "zero suppressed graph." By starting the bars a a value greater than zero, it let you compare the differences in greater detail, but it also exaggerates the ratios. See For what it's worth: Suppressed Zero graphs: the BBC should know better for a discussion with the presenter defending the approach.

 

[emupilot]

In the captures from the Hawthorne design center, the average charge speed is 54 kW at both Hawthorne and San Juan Capistrano. If we saw that screen from less used superchargers, we could tell how much of the reduction in speed was from the taper and how much was from sharing chargers.

 

[airj1012]

In the captures from the Hawthorne design center, the average charge speed is 54 kW at both Hawthorne and San Juan Capistrano. If we saw that screen from less used superchargers, we could tell how much of the reduction in speed was from the taper and how much was from sharing chargers.

As long as we weren't comparing against a new location with 135kW

 

[Cottonwood]

In the captures from the Hawthorne design center, the average charge speed is 54 kW at both Hawthorne and San Juan Capistrano. If we saw that screen from less used superchargers, we could tell how much of the reduction in speed was from the taper and how much was from sharing chargers.

My guess is that very little of it is from sharing, and most of it is from taper. There are a lot of people using Superchargers that do not understand the taper, and waste time charging too long.

This is made worse by the way Tesla reports MPH charge rate as the average for the session. For example, if you came in with a few miles left in an 85, and charged for 45 minutes, you would have well over 200 range miles in the battery, and the car is probably reporting an (average) charge rate of almost 300 MPH, but the real rate of charging the battery at that point is 150 MPH or less and going down fast. When the car says 300 MPH, it seems like it's worth charging some more, but as the actual rate of rated miles into the battery goes below 100 MPH, it's really a waste of time, except for the rare times when people have true hypermile missions ahead.

 

[AlMc]

I have said this before:

Expect many new Supercharger stations to go live in the US and in Canada in Q4 2014 and in Q1 2015. On average 15 new live Supercharger stations per month (or inbetween 10 and 20 per month).

I agree with this. It appears that TM may be hedging spending their resources on Q3 as I suspect their production numbers and 'profits' will be far less than in Q4. They shut the factory down, 'may' have had a slower ramp up when it initially reopened and decided to take a 'hit' on the drivetrain warranty set aside all in Q3. Thus, with Q4 shaping up to be 'big' I can see TM concentrating on using some of that income to open up many more superchargers. I also believe that they are concentrating more efforts on getting SCs in Europe and China (as they should) versus NA in the short term.

 

[Benz]

I agree with this. It appears that TM may be hedging spending their resources on Q3 as I suspect their production numbers and 'profits' will be far less than in Q4. They shut the factory down, 'may' have had a slower ramp up when it initially reopened and decided to take a 'hit' on the drivetrain warranty set aside all in Q3. Thus, with Q4 shaping up to be 'big' I can see TM concentrating on using some of that income to open up many more superchargers. I also believe that they are concentrating more efforts on getting SCs in Europe and China (as they should) versus NA in the short term.

Exactly.

How about at least 45 new live Supercharger stations in North America in the remaining 4 months in 2014, and the rest in Q1 2015?

OK, that's more than the number in the previous 7 months (Feb-Aug), but I guess that with more money to spend in the time ahead more people can be put to work and thus more work can be done/finished, right?

And let's face it, it's alwas better to calculate up front that there will be a delay, because then you will have less chance to be disappointed at the time of the deadline, right?

 

[Rodolfo Paiz]

I'm having trouble finding (or remembering where to find) info on rumors about Superchargers or info about Superchargers that are not yet online but are in progress. Do we know anything about an Orlando Supercharger at this point?

 

[emupilot]

I'm having trouble finding (or remembering where to find) info on rumors about Superchargers or info about Superchargers that are not yet online but are in progress. Do we know anything about an Orlando Supercharger at this point?

The repository of information and rumors is the Supercharger Progress wiki. The most often rumored spot near Orlando would be the Turkey Lake service plaza on the turnpike, but there hasn't been any concrete information yet.

 

[Gear]

Exactly.

How about at least 45 new live Supercharger stations in North America in the remaining 4 months in 2014, and the rest in Q1 2015?

OK, that's more than the number in the previous 7 months (Feb-Aug), but I guess that with more money to spend in the time ahead more people can be put to work and thus more work can be done/finished, right?

And let's face it, it's alwas better to calculate up front that there will be a delay, because then you will have less chance to be disappointed at the time of the deadline, right?

How about they build how many they say they're going to build? It's not our job to be conservative on our expectations. It's their job to be conservative with the expectations they give us.

 

[PhilBa]

How about they build how many they say they're going to build? It's not our job to be conservative on our expectations. It's their job to be conservative with the expectations they give us.

While I agree with your comment about them doing what they say they are going to do, Tesla's lack of schedule discipline (or communication discipline) has lead to this state of affairs. In the early days (like 6 months ago!) it was like a treasure hunt. Now it's just tedious waiting for them to do something. I don't burn too much energy on it personally but in looking at the trends and past performance (and please spare me the old stock market disclaimer), it doesn't look like they are even going to get close by 12/31.

 

[Joel]

Exactly.

How about at least 45 new live Supercharger stations in North America in the remaining 4 months in 2014, and the rest in Q1 2015?

OK, that's more than the number in the previous 7 months (Feb-Aug), but I guess that with more money to spend in the time ahead more people can be put to work and thus more work can be done/finished, right?

And let's face it, it's alwas better to calculate up front that there will be a delay, because then you will have less chance to be disappointed at the time of the deadline, right?

I believe Tesla will open 70 superchargers in North America between today and December 31st.

Below is a list of 9 Super Chargers that are waiting on transformers or other items outside of Tesla's control (Cottonwood please clarify the technical language and electrical logistics :smile These 9 or 10 Super Chargers are at a point that historically took 2 or 3 weeks to come on-line (Again, Cottonwood or anyone else, please correct me if I've overstated the time line). Also, I hate to be the optimist, but I believe whatever is holding up Greenville will be resolved in 4 months. So, that is 10 North American Super Chargers. Also, Ocala Florida broke ground recently. My numbers are conservative because I have not thoroughly reviewed the Supercharge Progress Update Wiki (Supercharger Progress - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum) or the Super Charger Page (Superchargers)

Basically, I believe at least 10 more North American Super Chargers will be on-line by September 12th. And I believe Tesla will have another end of year push for an additional 60 in 3 Months (October, November, December).

Here is my list (I welcome all comments and additions/edits):

2 Log In Page Redirect:
QC, Drummondville Sign into My Tesla | Tesla Motors
ON, Cornwall Sign into My Tesla | Tesla Motors

20 Coming Soon:
AZ, Casa Grande Casa Grande Supercharger | Tesla Motors
CA, El Centro El Centro Supercharger | Tesla Motors
CA, Los Angeles Downtown Los Angeles Supercharger | Tesla Motors
CA, Manteca Manteca Supercharger | Tesla Motors
CA, San Diego San Diego Supercharger | Tesla Motors
CO, Denver Denver Supercharger | Tesla Motors
FL, Gainesville Gainesville Supercharger | Tesla Motors
GA, Atlanta Atlanta Supercharger | Tesla Motors
ID, Coeur d’Alene Coeur d'Alene Supercharger | Tesla Motors
MA, Auburn Auburn Supercharger | Tesla Motors
NC, Charlotte Charlotte Supercharger | Tesla Motors
NH, Portsmouth Portsmouth Supercharger | Tesla Motors
NV, Primm Primm Supercharger | Tesla Motors
PA, Allentown Allentown Supercharger | Tesla Motors
*SC, Greenville Greenville Supercharger | Tesla Motors
AZ, Cordes Lakes Cordes Lake Supercharger | Tesla Motors
CA, Indio Indio Supercharger | Tesla Motors
FL, Tampa Tampa Supercharger | Tesla Motors
MA, Sagamore Sagamore Supercharger | Tesla Motors
ON, Kingston Kingston Supercharger | Tesla Motors

“Coming Soon” Dots added on July 11, 2014
CA, Oxnard
TN, Chattanooga
FL, Ocala Supercharger - Ocala, FL - Page 2
IN, Indianapolis
KS, Topeka
MD, Hanover About Arundel Mills - A Shopping Center in Hanover, MD - A Simon Property
ON, Barrie
ON, Hope

 

[GSP]

michiganmodels,

I hope Tesla adds some Michigan SuperChargers to your 2014 list. :smile:

GSP

 

[Joel]

michiganmodels,

I hope Tesla adds some Michigan SuperChargers to your 2014 list. :smile:

GSP

There will be :smile:

And Tesla will be able to get the Michigan Super Chargers on line in short order when they move SC resources to Michigan :smile:

 

[emupilot]

I believe Tesla will open 70 superchargers in North America between today and December 31st.

Most of that list of 30 Coming Soon installations will be done by the end of the year (Cornwall probably by the end of the day), but there will be some which follow the circuitous route taken by San Juan Capistrano, Edison, and Allentown well into 2015. The problem is that if I remember correctly even under an expedited schedule it still takes at least three months to go through the process, which means about 45 additional stations would have to be in motion as of a month from now if we were to get 70 by the end of the year. Besides the coming soon sites, there are about 25 additional rumored locations at the Supercharger Progress wiki, and I'm sure a few more will surface, but I doubt very much there will be enough surprises to get us all the way to 70. I'd figure we'll get 40-45 by the end of the year and then fairly rapid deployment in early 2015.

We may need to cross Gainesville off the Coming Soon list since it looks like it will be replaced by Ocala. We can add Defuniak Springs in its place, since that is in motion.

 

[Joel]

Most of that list of 30 Coming Soon installations will be done by the end of the year (Cornwall probably by the end of the day), but there will be some which follow the circuitous route taken by San Juan Capistrano, Edison, and Allentown well into 2015. The problem is that if I remember correctly even under an expedited schedule it still takes at least three months to go through the process, which means about 45 additional stations would have to be in motion as of a month from now if we were to get 70 by the end of the year. Besides the coming soon sites, there are about 25 additional rumored locations at the Supercharger Progress wiki, and I'm sure a few more will surface, but I doubt very much there will be enough surprises to get us all the way to 70. I'd figure we'll get 40-45 by the end of the year and then fairly rapid deployment in early 2015.

We may need to cross Gainesville off the Coming Soon list since it looks like it will be replaced by Ocala. We can add Defuniak Springs in its place, since that is in motion.

I won't argue with that. Tesla's September activity will be most telling. If there are a flurry of permits and ground breaking, we'll see another year end push.

I'm remaining (naively?) optimistic.

 

[AlMc]

I won't argue with that. Tesla's September activity will be most telling. If there are a flurry of permits and ground breaking, we'll see another year end push.

I'm remaining (naively?) optimistic.

While your exact numbers may not be correct your overall optimism is. TM will push in Q4 and have the increased money to build these SCs because of their large increase in production/deliveries in Q4 and Q1 2015.

(sending you a PM) Al

 

[dhanson865]

All the feedback makes sense. Still not sure why the bars aren't more corresponding to the power consumed. Unless its total, or something odd like that. Seems like one of those "progress bars" on Windows that just isn't accurate.

it's called non zero scale, Wikipedia calls it truncated graph Misleading graph - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A truncated graph (also known as a torn graph) has a axis that does not start at 0. These graphs can create the impression of important change where there is relatively little change.
Truncated graphs are useful in illustrating small differences. Graphs may also be truncated to save space.

 

[caddieo]

Here is my list (I welcome all comments and additions/edits):

“Coming Soon” Dots added on July 11, 2014
CA, Oxnard
TN, Chattanooga
FL, Ocala Supercharger - Ocala, FL - Page 2
IN, Indianapolis
KS, Topeka
MD, Hanover About Arundel Mills - A Shopping Center in Hanover, MD - A Simon Property
ON, Barrie
ON, Hope

There is a "Coming Soon" dot in the southwest corner of Chicago next to the dot of the open Aurora SpC. Anybody know exactly where it is and the timetable to completion?