Would Tesla have to build larger facilities to service these trucks? Will existing service centers be able to handle these large trucks?
I'm not in the industry (so take these as guesses) - yes, I figure Tesla will need to build out a Semi service and support network. And thus - no, the existing service network can't service commercial trucks the way they need to be serviced.
Heck - if Tesla is going to go after this market on it's own, I figure they've got an entire division that needs to be built, not just Tesla branded commercial service centers. They'll need to build service centers around the country, as well as make available training, parts, and tools for existing service centers.
They've got to get a parts division that is sharp and on the ball - a truck that needs a part needs it that day or the next, because every day it's out of service is a day of revenue lost. These are income producing assets for the buyers, and they're not going to buy if they don't trust their ability to keep them on the road.
I figure many of the larger fleets have their own service people / centers - they will need service manuals and fast access to parts as well, and training on how to do more than air pressure and wiper blades.
There's also more than trucks involved in selling trucks. From reading
Trucking Articles - FreightWaves I get the sense that there's a bunch of electronics in the truck cab. Some of that Tesla can partner with and/or rely on 3rd parties to provide (something they're known for
). Or they'll need to build themselves. Some of it they can probably do better than anybody else and use that to create a competitive advantage (truck telemetry), but that's got to be available to truck buyers - not just Tesla.
The real point is that this market is different than the light duty vehicle market Tesla's been in so far. These are income producing assets Tesla will be making, and buyers aren't getting vehicle #2 if vehicle #1 is off the road for a week for an otherwise routine repair that should be same day or tomorrow at worst.
Personal experience with my Model X. We had a car v. coyote encounter near Boise that needed repair. The body shop there was outstanding to work with, got parts reasonably quickly, and had the car repaired and ready for me to pickup in about 4-6 weeks (I think about 1/2 of that time waiting on parts from Tesla). That worked out fine for me and I think generally works in the light duty vehicle market. My guess is that's a disaster in the commercial truck market (anybody with actual knowledge like to correct me?)
All of this is stuff I put into my 3 phase adoption model for electric semi's (I made this up - it's my view into how things evolve).
In phase 1, the question buyers are asking is "do these things work?". This is an intentionally vague question as it encompasses everything involved in the buyer operating their business. Do they move stuff from here to there, in quantities that diesels move today?
Can they be refueled fast enough that they can be used again as fast as the business needs (a truck that makes one out and back / day has overnight to refuel / charge - that's easy).
Can they be repaired? Can fleet service bays stock common parts, or are they all special orders? Can fleet service bays get maintenance and service manuals? Can they get training? Can they do battery swaps and motor swaps, or do they need to wait for Tesla Service to handle that? Do the special parts arrive the next day reliably, or do they take a week? Etc..
Is there extra training to run the truck (of course) and is it difficult (probably not)?
And on and on. To me, all of this is wrapped up under "can I drop this into my current business process, and/or can I drop this into a lightly modified version of my current business process" that still works?
When the answer is yes, then buyers can move to phase 2 (economics), and later phase 3 (replace the whole fleet - volume availability).
It's also my guess that this is closer to a year or 2, than a month or 2, worth of evaluation. Part of the evaluation will be a truck that gets abused / driven to the upper limit of what that fleet expects of their vehicles. Stuff you can't learn in a week or a month of driving test routes, but stuff you learn over a year or 2 of driving it hard, different weather conditions, stuff breaking, routine maintenance, unexpected repairs; living with it.
My own view of things, which seems to largely be my own
, is what I'd like to see is for Tesla to partner with an existing manufacturer of trucks. Tesla gets that division that knows how to handle parts & service, has a training organization, has manufacturing set up to handle the large number of different configurations that get small build numbers, and Tesla doesn't have to hire and develop all of that itself.
The manufacturer gets an awesome drive train and access to the battery quantity it needs for phase 3.
To make this work, Tesla needs to find a manufacturer that is ready to sell out on electric trucks. That manufacturer needs to convince Tesla that they want the electric future for commercial trucks at least as badly as Tesla, and maybe more (they just can't get the batteries to make it happen - the bottleneck for everybody).
The goal is to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport - with the right partner, I see this as the fastest path to widespread availability of electric commercial trucks.
My guess is that Tesla won't find that manufacturer, and thus will have no choice except to go it alone.