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Tesla safety stats

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Mullermn

Adapting to life without USS one hour at a time
Jun 25, 2022
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Uk
Article on notateslaapp : Tesla's Autopilot is the Safest Driver on the Road
‘Tesla cars with Autopilot turned on are much safer than cars driven by people. In Q4 2022, there was only one crash for every 4.85 million miles driven. According to the most recent data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), one crash happens every 652,000 miles for all other cars.’

I was curious about the actual report so to save anyone else looking it up it’s here Tesla Vehicle Safety Report | Tesla

Which includes these notes on their methodology:
We collect the amount of miles traveled by each vehicle with Autopilot active or in manual driving, based on available data we receive from the fleet, and do so without identifying specific vehicles to protect privacy. We also receive a crash alert anytime a crash is reported to us from the fleet, which may include data about whether Autopilot was active at the time of impact. To ensure our statistics are conservative, we count any crash in which Autopilot was deactivated within 5 seconds before impact, and we count all crashes in which the incident alert indicated an airbag or other active restraint deployed. (Our crash statistics are not based on sample data sets or estimates.) In practice, this correlates to nearly any crash at about 12 mph (20 kph) or above, depending on the crash forces generated. We do not differentiate based on the type of crash or fault (For example, more than 35% of all Autopilot crashes occur when the Tesla vehicle is rear-ended by another vehicle). In this way, we are confident that the statistics we share unquestionably show the benefits of Autopilot.

Please note that seasonality can affect crash rates from quarter to quarter, particularly in quarters where reduced daylight and inclement or wintry weather conditions are more common. To minimize seasonality as a variable, compare a quarter to the same quarter in prior years.

*Update (January 2023):
We are proud of Autopilot’s performance and its impact on reducing traffic collisions. The benefit and promise of Autopilot is clear from the Vehicle Safety Report data that we have been sharing for 4 years. As part of Tesla’s commitment to continuous improvement, recent analysis led us to identify and implement upgrades to our data reporting. Specifically, we discovered reports of certain events where no airbag or other active restraint deployed, single events that were counted more than once, and reports of invalid or duplicated mileage records. Including these events is inconsistent with our methodology for the Vehicle Safety Report and they will be excluded going forward. These upgrades in data analysis reinforce the positive impact that Autopilot has on vehicle safety. To ensure the accuracy of our reporting, we updated all collision rates historically to account for these upgrades, including the baseline collision rates for the United States based on currently available NHTSA and FHWA data. (Note that for purposes of the baseline collision rates in the United States, an automobile crash is one that involves at least one passenger vehicle, light truck, SUV or van that is 10,000 pounds or less, as classified by available federal data.) The end result is that, when Autopilot is active, the collision rates are even lower than we previously reported.
 
What’s notable is that they include any crash where AP was active within 5 seconds as an AP crash (not sure if that’s long enough to be fair or not?), and they also include any crash where the Tesla gets rear ended while AP is on as an AP crash.
 
Bringing this to the forefront to note that since updating these descriptions at the start of the year, Tesla has not provided updated safety stats since Q4 2022 -- apologies if this is being discussed anywhere else.

I think all this likely ties to the letter the NHTSA sent to Tesla regarding how these numbers are derived/calculated and presented -- it's also seemingly impossible to find details about this letter anywhere.
 
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