Tesla reduces output of Y and 3 in Shanghai

[FastLaneJB]

Just seen this. Dropping the factory from 6 1/2 days to 5 days production so that's a reasonable drop. Both Y and 3 demand is not high enough.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Discounts coming for other locations that they sell to and not just China? Maybe lower interest rates on the Highland coming to align the the Y?

Bad times I think for all EV's, Tesla is not immune.

 

[gangzoom]

I think there isn't a unrealistic chance in 5 years times EVs might be viewed in the same way diesels are now.

Ev charging on M-ways is now as expensive as petrol, add in the additional inconvenience, once BIK tax goes up, lots of people will be asking what's the point......Let's not pretend anyone really believes the 'green' push.

 

[Zilla91]

Just wait for the drop off when the refreshed Y gets released

 

[FastLaneJB]

I think there isn't a unrealistic chance in 5 years times EVs might be viewed in the same way diesels are now.

Ev charging on M-ways is now as expensive as petrol, add in the additional inconvenience, once BIK tax goes up, lots of people will be asking what's the point......Let's not pretend anyone really believes the 'green' push.

I'd like think a lot do care about global warming. It's just not enough to do something about it if it hits them in the pocket, either because they cannot afford to pay more or just don't want to.

As you say as incentives vanish, it's not going to help in this country.

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Can just look at this list to see what cars are struggling to sell right now. All EV's.

 

[MD70]

Until Tesla produces the smaller cheaper vehicle sales are going to stagnate.

The other issue is that Tesla doesn’t seem to care about the second hand market.
Combined with the great unknown about what percentage of batteries will fail at what years and mileage plus the potential costs of a replacement battery means that vehicles outside warranty will be harder to sell and prices will fall resulting in less people buying new ones.

I thought EVs will take over but now I am not so sure. Only government mandates like Norway’s can force the transition but it looks like our governments will backtrack on that.

 

[boombap]

I think there isn't a unrealistic chance in 5 years times EVs might be viewed in the same way diesels are now.

Ev charging on M-ways is now as expensive as petrol, add in the additional inconvenience, once BIK tax goes up, lots of people will be asking what's the point......Let's not pretend anyone really believes the 'green' push.

That is pretty darn unrealistic.

A small decrease in growth rate of EVs doesn’t change the fact ICE vehicle sales peaked in 2019 and continue to decline at a steady pace, not even managing a post pandemic bounce, they just keep declining YoY.

The temporary energy market problem in Europe isn’t helping EV adoption but it is temporary and given time will drive prices down as renewables accelerate to wean off the expensive imported gas.

 

[FastLaneJB]

Sadly we weren't as smart with our oil as Norway so aren't nearly as wealthy per head as them. Their subsidiaries worked great, plus with their almost fully cheap renewable electricity it all makes great sense for them.

EV residuals is a mixture of the unknown but also they are getting cheaper to make. You've seen some improvements into manufacturing approaches taken to try to offset the extra costs of the battery. However the costs of that battery is also dropping so in real terms as the complexity drops also, they should be cheaper to buy and run than an ICE. Thesd improvements don't help keep prices up of the earlier, less advanced and originally more expensive EV's though.

I think the batteries will last long enough. It's more a case that maybe at some point one of these miracle batteries will finally ship. Maybe we'll have cars with twice the range, less battery cost and can fill to full in 5 -10 minutes. The older cars that take 40 minutes to charge, go half the distance and cost a lot more upfront won't be nearly as desirable. ICE doesn't have these issues because frankly it's so major that the needle barely moves on improvements.

It's going to be a bumpy road the whole transition but that's kind of to be expected.

 

[boombap]

Sadly we weren't as smart with our oil as Norway so aren't nearly as wealthy per head as them. Their subsidiaries worked great, plus with their almost fully cheap renewable electricity it all makes great sense for them.

Yup, Norway with their Hydro and wealth fund, Denmark with their wind, Iceland with its geothermal, France with their abundant Nuclear are all way better prepared on energy security that is or Germany.

 

[ACarneiro]

Wind, Hydro and Geothermal are quirks of geography they were lucky to have.
Nuclear is a matter of choice. The UK and Germany don’t seem to be making that choice.

 

[ACarneiro]

I think there isn't an unrealistic chance in 5 years times EVs might be viewed in the same way diesels are now.

I think that is highly unrealistic because the whole driving experience of an EV is so much superior.
They’re quieter, more responsive and cleaner to run and those differentiators alone would ensure they endure even if running costs were comparable.
Capital outlay costs will come down as the technology matures so I really do think the future is bright for EVs

 

[Lord Farquad]

Pretty much everyone I know who’s driven an EV has preferred it. Tesla’s minimalist interior is marmite, but so is IPhone and that’s done ok.

The factors adversely effecting the transition are mainly infrastructure, where different failings of central and local government are causing frustrations. The central government should be mandating and subsidising the creation of significant charging facilities and local government should make it easy to build.

Add in massive negative MSM and SM by groups lobbied and funded by factions who are invested in ICE and the public are confused.

Tesla could make a huge difference if it ran significant educational campaigns around EVs, highlighting reliability and efficiency. They also need to take a genuine interest in after sales, residual values and insurance. If they fail to look after current customers their rise will be brief, as few will spend money again if they have lost out disproportionately and blame the manufacturer.

They have massive influence and revenue sources, plus a stated aim of driving the transition. Time for them to put their money where their corporate mouth is in my opinion.

 

[gangzoom]

I think that is highly unrealistic

I like to think so, but diesel were seen as the answer not that long ago. Its 10 years now since the S was introduced in the UK, there are more EVs on the road but far more petrol cars still sold.

The number of 20 years old petrol cars I see around is still quite amazing, how many EVs with make it to 20 years old without some major costs for a new traction battery?

We've seen how quickly governments can change their minds on what is the future, and how incentives/penalties can quickly change people buying pattern.

Horizon scan the next 10 years, Trump back in white house, Elon does something utter mad and takes everything related to him down, China does whats right for China, Labour and OPEC joing forces to ensure motoring doesnt just become accessible to the rich by ensuring combustion cars are still sold (EVs are the preserve of the rich still), I wouldn't be surprised to see a U turn on favourable policies.

Uncertainty is the core feature of the world we live in!!

 

[NewbieT]

That is pretty darn unrealistic.

A small decrease in growth rate of EVs doesn’t change the fact ICE vehicle sales peaked in 2019 and continue to decline at a steady pace, not even managing a post pandemic bounce, they just keep declining YoY.

The temporary energy market problem in Europe isn’t helping EV adoption but it is temporary and given time will drive prices down as renewables accelerate to wean off the expensive imported gas.

Is it temporary though? I don’t see it returning any time soon. Look at the cost of Nuclear. The high prices do help the Net Zero journey though. While energy was so cheap the business case to invest in PV or EV infrastructure was reliant on altruistim rather than financial returns - you could get better returns elsewhere. No ultra rapids, no EV transition. We’re yet to see the Rapid Charging Fund do anything either. Spent on consultants and abandoned before it does anything- typical government.

 

[FastLaneJB]

Wind, Hydro and Geothermal are quirks of geography they were lucky to have.
Nuclear is a matter of choice. The UK and Germany don’t seem to be making that choice.

Pretty sure we don’t have a shortage of wind

We also have a lot of coast we can use for tidal power.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I like to think so, but diesel were seen as the answer not that long ago. Its 10 years now since the S was introduced in the UK, there are more EVs on the road but far more petrol cars still sold.

The number of 20 years old petrol cars I see around is still quite amazing, how many EVs with make it to 20 years old without some major costs for a new traction battery?

We've seen how quickly governments can change their minds on what is the future, and how incentives/penalties can quickly change people buying pattern.

Horizon scan the next 10 years, Trump back in white house, Elon does something utter mad and takes everything related to him down, China does whats right for China, Labour and OPEC joing forces to ensure motoring doesnt just become accessible to the rich by ensuring combustion cars are still sold (EVs are the preserve of the rich still), I wouldn't be surprised to see a U turn on favourable policies.

Uncertainty is the core feature of the world we live in!!

EVS better, fewer moving parts, scope for longer-lasting cars than overstressed small ICE engines (ecoboost, turbo).

This is the most important aspect in recent comments - "A small decrease in growth rate of EVs". EV growth is happening, but not always and in all places by 70-100+% a year. New markets all the time (Chile this year, Turkey last year). Many of the usual suspects on the Daily Hate comment section seem to misunderstand this as LESS EVs, when it just means EV sales are maybe ONLY 30% higher than last year's.

Diesel was obviously a bad idea to anyone who can think critically, just that the lobbyists could spin it as a good idea via media & paid-for politicians. Tiny bit better for CO2 for long steady driving (not short trips on a cold diesel engine), terrible for NOX and particulates in cities. Lots of maintenance costs (income for dealers).

Limiting the size of the urea tank by cartel-like activity wasn't going to help.

- initially only enough for 1200-1800 miles, later increased, but still limited to 8 litres in USA & 16 litres in Europe (about 16 minutes in).

Their own lawyers told them it was illegal.

 

[winryn]

The new adopters seem to be slowing significantly. Realistically Ev’s don’t work unless you can home charge (cost wise). Insurance is crazy, road tax is coming so I can see why they’re losing appeal.

I think whilst ice cars are still available, evs will become a very hard sale. My model y is a cheap lease so I’ve got no concerns over residual value. There is no way I’d buy or pcp an ev at the moment.

The model y was a trial to see if I could swap our bmw and model y for a Porsche macan ev. I’m sold on it (model y is fantastic) but the numbers are insane. £48k cost over 36 month pcp on a base macan ev.

 

[Durzel]

Wind, Hydro and Geothermal are quirks of geography they were lucky to have.
Nuclear is a matter of choice. The UK and Germany don’t seem to be making that choice.

We should have started building out nuclear 20 years ago. We’re only just doing it now, at a glacial pace.

UK is also a windy country but you wouldn’t know it since wind farms are still a novelty here.

Long and short of it is that our governments have never had the “big picture” mindset. The stuff they have set out to do - e.g. HS2 - have been hopelessly managed.

 

[Lord Farquad]

We should have started building out nuclear 20 years ago. We’re only just doing it now, at a glacial pace.

UK is also a windy country but you wouldn’t know it since wind farms are still a novelty here.

Long and short of it is that our governments have never had the “big picture” mindset. The stuff they have set out to do - e.g. HS2 - have been hopelessly managed.

Couldn’t agree more. And with a change in management on the cards it’ll be worse, as they flip flop on ideas and fail to deliver anything.
I’m not suggesting the current lot are any better. The whole lot are inept, self serving morons.

 

[UkNorthampton]

The new adopters seem to be slowing significantly. Realistically Ev’s don’t work unless you can home charge (cost wise). Insurance is crazy, road tax is coming so I can see why they’re losing appeal.

I think whilst ice cars are still available, evs will become a very hard sale. My model y is a cheap lease so I’ve got no concerns over residual value. There is no way I’d buy or pcp an ev at the moment.

The model y was a trial to see if I could swap our bmw and model y for a Porsche macan ev. I’m sold on it (model y is fantastic) but the numbers are insane. £48k cost over 36 month pcp on a base macan ev.

In the USA, apartment dwellers have EVs as a larger % than those living in houses (Source:

- good watch for personas like "EV haters").

UK - Tesla charges as low as 28pence/kWh depending on how busy. That's cheaper than many general electric tariffs.

USA - high takeup rates in California, Florida & Texas -

As for insurance in UK, with the number of nicked range Rovers & Porsches (especially Macan) - Teslas with PinToDrive become cheaper to insure.

Macans are about to be uninsurable! - Page 10

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www.macanforums.co.uk

 

[UkNorthampton]

Couldn’t agree more. And with a change in management on the cards it’ll be worse, as they flip flop on ideas and fail to deliver anything.
I’m not suggesting the current lot are any better. The whole lot are inept, self serving morons.

Solar/Wind/Storage cheaper and most critically faster to bring online than nuclear, phase by phase, bit by bit. The huge delays for political/oil corruption reasons in the UK are a scandal. Energy independence held up for years exposing us to petro-dictators, shipping problems and other bottlenecks.