Year 2025 scenarios
1) Tesla sell 5m vehicles
Average sales price $30k plus 50% take-up of FSD at $70k
Total revenue = $150Bn = $45Bn profit
Profit from Robotaxis from that year of sales (assuming 1 car makes $40k and Tesla's share is 30%) - 5m*50%*$40k*30% = $30Bn
2 year profit = 45+45+30+30+30=$180Bn
2) Tesla keeps all 5m vehicles - funded from FSD revenues on previously sold vehicles.
Sales loss = $150-45 = $105Bn
Profit from Robotaxis from that year of non-sales (assuming 1 car makes $40k and Tesla's share is 100%) - 5m*100%*$40k*100% = $200Bn
Year 2 = $400Bn
2 year profit = 400+200-105-105 = $390Bn
V2G profits on top
3) Tesla sell all 5m vehicles
Average sales price $100k (FSD bundled)
Total revenue = $500Bn = $395Bn profit
Profit from Robotaxis from that year of sales (assuming 1 car makes $40k and Tesla's share is 30%) - 5m*100%*$40k*30% = $60Bn
2 year profit = 395+395+60+60+60 = $960Bn
Scenario 2 is a no brainer. Shareholders won't like it in the short term though. We will therefore most likely transition from 1 to 3 to 2.
Dave is looking bottom up from the consumer view rather than from Tesla's viewpoint. Non-Tesla vehicles will be available to those that want to own.