I was just thinking that it would make sense to use the Gigafactory as test facility for integration between power packs, solar and wind. Even if it's not economical, it makes sense for that reason alone.
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Tesla Gigafactory
- Thread starter domenick
- Start date
I believe the original plan was to start producing batteries for Model S and X around the end of 2016 and the current schedule looks like they may beat that by 4 months or so. I'm hoping they will pass the savings on to the customer with a price drop on the Model S and X.
"Done", as in producing the first Cells. Reaching full capacity in 2020.
The original schedule was 5 phases as listed in this documents (last page), but I don't remember what those phases entail.
http://www.diversifynevada.com/documents/Tesla_Abatement_Application.PDF
They do have a precedent for that. They eliminated the Tech Package and made some of the features standard.
It's possible they will offer a larger battery at the same price. We'll see what happens.
dgpcolorado
high altitude member
Came across this tidbit:
Source: Electrek, October 2nd, Elon Musk: Tesla Model X launch caused a “big, a very big jump” in orders for the Model S
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Only very slowly. Because:
- Fast price drop would reduce value of already sold cars making owners unhappy.
- They need to earn money they have spend for MX design, production line and gigafactory.
- They have promised to keep buying cells from current Panasonic factories. Price of those will not fall quickly.
- No real competition. So no need to reduce prices.
So battery capacity will increase perhaps 5% yearly. Price of smaller batteries will fall less than that.
I guess you meant TM3?
Probably correct. But if you look at the original plans for the GF, it would produce 50GWh of battery packs, of witch 35GWh would come from cells produced at the GF and 15GWh from current Panasonic factories. From my understanding of this plan the 35GWh produced at the GF was for the cars, and the 15GWh from Panasonic elsewhere was for stationary batteries. Maybe just for exactly this reason. But on the other hand, plans may have changed since then...
Tesla has not been shy to devalue cars already in the hands of customers before. The forum is full of people complaining their pre-autopilot and pre-dual motor cars are worth less because of the upgrades. There is so much pent up demand for Teslas a price drop would probably stimulate sales for Model S and X and with the same margin, they would make more money in the end. Right now I believe they make an average profit of $20,000 a car, but that's not $20,000 for every car, it's lower on the 70s and very high on the P90Ds.
As I understand the agreement with Panasonic is they will buy batteries from Panasonic's Asian plants if needed, but will source batteries from the Gigafactory first. Panasonic still makes money on the deal because they are a partner in the Gigafactory.
I would also argue the Model S and X are competing with other $90K-$100K cars and the P90D is competing with a number of sports cars. The European luxury car makers are nervous because Tesla has cut into their market share. In the US, Tesla is the best selling car among $100K luxury sedans. It's a small market, but they came out of nowhere and took it over. If the Model S and X were in the same price range as the upper end of Cadillac and Lincoln's range (around $70,000), it would likely cut into their sales too.
If you're only looking at long range BEVs, yes, Tesla is the only car in that market niche right now, but they are successfully competing against ICE cars in some upper end niches now.
They don't want to get the Model S and X down to where they are competing with the Model 3, but there is a long ways to go before that becomes a problem.
That is not my understanding of the deal, but if you have sources to confirm this I'm eager to read it
My understanding is rather the opposite: They lunched the "Tesla Energy"/"Powerpack"/"Powerwall" when they did just to ensure Panasonic that they had a marked for the cells from the Asian plants even when the cars would be would be served by the GF: "See - we have a product that will use your Asian cells, and we have a marked for this. So please invest in our GF, we will buy all your cells for both the GF and your existing factories - as many as you may ever produce!". A few weeks later Panasonic confirmed investment in the GF if I recollect correct.
Edit: of course the "deal" may be worded like you suggested, and that is exactly why Panasonic were unsure whether they would invest if the GF or not, and needed this reassurances.
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The complexities of a deal like that is more about the relationship than about the transaction. As @Model3 suggestedTesla affirmed the value of the relationship to panasonic.
That is not my understanding of the deal, but if you have sources to confirm this I'm eager to read it
My understanding is rather the opposite: They lunched the "Tesla Energy"/"Powerpack"/"Powerwall" when they did just to ensure Panasonic that they had a marked for the cells from the Asian plants even when the cars would be would be served by the GF: "See - we have a product that will use your Asian cells, and we have a marked for this. So please invest in our GF, we will buy all your cells for both the GF and your existing factories - as many as you may ever produce!". A few weeks later Panasonic confirmed investment in the GF if I recollect correct.
Edit: of course the "deal" may be worded like you suggested, and that is exactly why Panasonic were unsure whether they would invest if the GF or not, and needed this reassurances.
According to the agreement with Panasonic Tesla will continue to purchase cells produced at Panasonic's Japanese factories:
MassModel3
Member
Two major factors here. First is that Tesla needed Panasonic (or somebody) to go in on the factory to help absorb some of the cost and streamline production. Second is that Panasonic massively ramped up production in their current factory to accommodate Tesla. There's no way Panasonic would sign the gigafactory deal of it was going to be a hardship in their current facilities. So yes, Tesla had to agree to continue with the current distribution line as well as the new battery line in Nevada.
Panasonic would not invest to Gigafactory, if it means that they have to close their own factories. Gigafactory might even produce larger cells that won't fit into current backs.
I wonder what would have happened if Tesla had sold only 60 kWh and 85 kWh models until 2017 and then added 100 kWh model with cheaper GF battery. So I expect 95 kWh model in 2016 or 2017. 100 kWh year or two later.
Currently Tesla sells all cars they can make without advertising. So they don't have real competition.
The document you referenced includes a Manpower Schedule dated October 21, 2014 by Yates Construction Company, Tesla's prime contractor. It shows Yates planned to have workers on the five phases during the following time frames:
Phase 1: Sept., 2014 through Sept., 2015
Phase 2: Dec. 2014 through Dec., 2015
Phase 3: Apr., 2015 through May, 2016
Phase 4 May, 2015 through Dec., 2016
Phase 5 Aug., 2016 through Dec., 2017
The same Yates schedule was included in Tesla's May 2015 submittal to Nevada and included in the Exhibits to the most recent quarterly filing with the SEC.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
The First American Gigafactory Probably Won’t Be from Tesla
t Be from Tesla Navigant Research
Looks like LG Chem's Michigan factory may beat Tesla to the 1 Gigawatt mark.
"Meanwhile, near the shore of Lake Michigan, an LG Chem factory is poised to be the first North American facility to produce more than 1 GWh of automotive Li-ion cells, likely before the end of 2016."
t Be from Tesla Navigant Research
Looks like LG Chem's Michigan factory may beat Tesla to the 1 Gigawatt mark.
"Meanwhile, near the shore of Lake Michigan, an LG Chem factory is poised to be the first North American facility to produce more than 1 GWh of automotive Li-ion cells, likely before the end of 2016."
I think the first phase of the gigafactory comes on line in spring. It should be able to hit one GW.
MassModel3
Member
First and foremost, I'm assuming Tesla has trademarked the name "Gigafactory". So the first Gigafactory will definitely be from Tesla! :biggrin:
Or maybe not. Wikipedia says:
On April 30, 2015, Elon Musk announced that the factory heretofore known simply as the Gigafactory was now to be known as Gigafactory 1 as Tesla plans to build more such factories in the future. At the same event, Musk also said that he believed that other companies would build their own similar "Gigafactories".
Maybe the name's just a generic term. Dunno.
But definitely Tesla Gigafactory 1 should be able to hit that 1 GWh mark long before the end of the year. Musk had said earlier this year that the current structure is 20% of the final Gigafactory, so I expect that to mean it can put out 20% of full production, or 7 GWh per year. It should definitely hit the 1 GWh mark in the first 2 or 3 months of production.
Or maybe not. Wikipedia says:
On April 30, 2015, Elon Musk announced that the factory heretofore known simply as the Gigafactory was now to be known as Gigafactory 1 as Tesla plans to build more such factories in the future. At the same event, Musk also said that he believed that other companies would build their own similar "Gigafactories".
Maybe the name's just a generic term. Dunno.
But definitely Tesla Gigafactory 1 should be able to hit that 1 GWh mark long before the end of the year. Musk had said earlier this year that the current structure is 20% of the final Gigafactory, so I expect that to mean it can put out 20% of full production, or 7 GWh per year. It should definitely hit the 1 GWh mark in the first 2 or 3 months of production.
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