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Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

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AlMc, RobStark, Robert.Boston, thank you very much! These are the exact kind of comments that I was looking for. I appreciate your feedback.

Robert.Boston, yes, I was intentionally exaggerating the case just to test how far the notion makes sense. Your comments about co-location answer the question economically.


Little bit off-topic:

RobStark, I kind of agree with you about establishing direct relationships with the vendor / mining companies. I think that's how typically agricultural products such as grains are aggregated from individual farmers to elevators & co-ops.

However, on a fundamental level I am a proponent of transparent markets. There is a role that the commodities exchange such as LME or NYMEX can play here. For instance, at initial negotiations and/or at contract renewal (or price reset) it helps to know where the general market levels are (plus-minus local transportation basis and maybe product grade basis).

In absence of the exchange you have a similar situation as with railroad shipment contracts where same carrier would charge different rates to different customers or cargo type. Also, should the price of raw materials fluctuate a lot, it makes sense for TSLA to use the exchanges for delta-hedging (or through the customized OTC contracts with the banks where the banks then turn around and hedge themselves with the exchange traded contracts).

Although it may not be feasible to acquire the mining company itself, it may make sense to have deeper interaction with them aside from consumption of raw materials. Mining companies generally run on thin operating margins and are subject to oil price spikes due to heavy consumption of petroleum based products. So perhaps if TSLA or SCTY could provide electric energy supply to the mine it would reduce the mining company's exposure to the oil markets. That would be a win-win situation where TSLA would also save on hedging costs by virtue of not having to deal with the forwards/futures/options trade execution. I don't expect this to be a large item on the income statement, however, maybe 1-2% at most. -- Anyway, I am getting off topic here. Sorry.

Once again, thank you all for the quick feedback!
 
I do not share this view. I think others will build gigafactories and compete. Nissan has already built one. Their Smyrna, Tennessee plant has a nameplate capacity of 200,000 battery packs per year, or roughly 4.8 gigawatt hrs. At the moment, they are actually building about 1/10 of that, or half a gigawatt hrs.

Just as a side note, in a discussion with Nissan, I asked about their battery plants. They are not on the scale of what Tesla is planning. The reason they are at a half gigawatt right now is because they are supplier constrained. They cannot get the anodes and cathodes they need, so they cannot build the batteries. So says Nissan.

Tesla wants to bypass that bottleneck by being their own supplier. No one else is doing that. Not saying they can't, but they don't. Like saying that MickeyDs might beat out TacoBell selling crunch wraps. Oh, sure, they could. But they don't. They build something similar to what they are already doing and push the advertising on that.

Hmmmm. Sounds familiar.
 
Just as a side note, in a discussion with Nissan, I asked about their battery plants. They are not on the scale of what Tesla is planning. The reason they are at a half gigawatt right now is because they are supplier constrained. They cannot get the anodes and cathodes they need, so they cannot build the batteries. So says Nissan.

Tesla wants to bypass that bottleneck by being their own supplier. No one else is doing that. Not saying they can't, but they don't. Like saying that MickeyDs might beat out TacoBell selling crunch wraps. Oh, sure, they could. But they don't. They build something similar to what they are already doing and push the advertising on that.

Hmmmm. Sounds familiar.

Interesting, the various articles I have read indicate that it is a customer demand issue, not a supplier issue. It would be interesting to see what the inventory levels are like for the Leaf.... There is also something about the new battery that might also muddy the picture. Did Nissan indicate when they might be able to gets more supply?
 
Interesting, the various articles I have read indicate that it is a customer demand issue, not a supplier issue. It would be interesting to see what the inventory levels are like for the Leaf.... There is also something about the new battery that might also muddy the picture. Did Nissan indicate when they might be able to gets more supply?
FWIW, there are 40 2014 Nissan Leafs sitting unsold on dealers' lots within 50 miles of Boston (according to Nissan's web search tool). That sounds like a lot at first, but it's a lot lower than the inventory of other models, e.g. there are 271 2014 JUKEs and 376 2014 Maximas. Some data points, not sure how to interpret them.
 
FWIW, there are 40 2014 Nissan Leafs sitting unsold on dealers' lots within 50 miles of Boston (according to Nissan's web search tool). That sounds like a lot at first, but it's a lot lower than the inventory of other models, e.g. there are 271 2014 JUKEs and 376 2014 Maximas. Some data points, not sure how to interpret them.

Quick internet search, this was posted a ~year ago:

ModernMarvelFan · 44 weeks ago

According to cars.com,

Within 150 miles of SF, there are over 450 Leaf
Within 150 miles of Seattle, there are over 377 Leaf.
Within 150 miles of Portland, there are over 461 Leaf.
Within 150 miles of LA, there are over 230 Leaf.

Within 150 miles of Atlanta, there are over 128 Leaf.
Within 150 miles of Dallas, there are ONLY 88 Leaf.
Within 150 miles of Chicago, there are ONLY 69 Leaf.

Well, within 150 miles of SF there are 789 Leafs now. Within 150 ml of LA there are 232 Leafs. Only 73 in Dallas. Only 132 in Portland.
Someone could check other cities, same cars.com source.
 
Month
Nissan LEAF
U.S. Sales 2010
Nissan LEAF
U.S. Sales 2011
Nissan LEAF
U.S. Sales 2012
Nissan LEAF
U.S. Sales 2013
Nissan LEAF
U.S. Sales 2014
January
-----
87
676
650
1252
February
-----
67
478
653
1425
March
-----
298
579
2236
2507
April
-----
573
370
1937
2088
May
-----
1142
510
2138

June
-----
1708
535
2225

July
-----
931
395
1864

August
-----
1362
685
2420

September
-----
1031
984
1953

October
-----
849
1579
2002

November
-----
672
1539
2003

December
19
954
1489
2529

Year
Nissan LEAF
U.S. Sales
Nissan LEAF
Canadian Sales
2010
19
-----
2011
9674
170
2012
9819
240
2013
22,610
470
2014 YTD *
7272
257
 

2014 Energy Storage Symposium - JB Straubel's Keynote


2014 Energy Storage Symposium - JB Straubels Keynote - YouTube

Great video all around, some good new info here for sure!

something great that I want to point out, the question asked at around 43 minutes was do you think that lithium will dominate forever and what are you doing about that.

this is an incredibly important answer from the perspective of those who have asked, isn't Tesla just wasting money on the factory and are they planing for flexibility... Just listen to his whole response... But to sum it up, he thinks lithium will only dominate for maybe the next 5-10 years... He himself is rooting for battery innovation. He said he would love it if a high capacitor type cell would come out and be viable because it would work perfectly for everything they are working on. However, their stance is that if you can do something now and make money off of the technology now, then you are losing money by just sitting around and waiting. Technology is always getting better and you can't wait to act.

anyway, he said it better than I, and i highly recommend anyone who questions the logevity or viability of the factory for Tesla should listen to what he said and how he said it... I know my confidence level in JB and Tesla has gone up! :)
 
Hey all, first post here after reading for a few months now. I have a question that I emailed Investor Relations about after watching JB's Keynote but have yet to hear back. I own common stock and am planning to add to it (in general, but specifically after hearing JB's thoughts on the potential for the the stationary storage business). I want to be sure that as a TSLA investor we are going to be the primary beneficiary should the stationary storage unit segment take off. From what I've heard and read it seems so since Tesla is the company developing these units, but almost every mention is followed up by something to the effect of "to be leased/sold through Solar City". I do not currently own any SCTY and do not want to miss out on the future stationary storage revenue streams. Thanks for any help, and thanks also for all the excellent information constantly kicked around on this forum.
 
Hey all, first post here after reading for a few months now. I have a question that I emailed Investor Relations about after watching JB's Keynote but have yet to hear back. I own common stock and am planning to add to it (in general, but specifically after hearing JB's thoughts on the potential for the the stationary storage business). I want to be sure that as a TSLA investor we are going to be the primary beneficiary should the stationary storage unit segment take off. From what I've heard and read it seems so since Tesla is the company developing these units, but almost every mention is followed up by something to the effect of "to be leased/sold through Solar City". I do not currently own any SCTY and do not want to miss out on the future stationary storage revenue streams. Thanks for any help, and thanks also for all the excellent information constantly kicked around on this forum.

Welcome to TMC ClownMouth! They are already selling a very small volume of stationary storage units through SolarCity. This is in partnership, likely where Solarcity buys the packs from Tesla and then leases it to residential customers. This makes a ton of sense as it leverages the channel SolarCity is using to sell and install home power electronics already. As public companies that have to be accountable to shareholders, Tesla wouldn't just hand over developments stemming from significant R&D investments and gigafactories. They could be sweetheart deals but would certainly be mutually beneficial to shareholders of both.

The short answer is that they would both be very large participants in stationary storage market growth, but it would benefit each respective company in different ways.

Here's the current offering for your reference:
Home Energy Storage & Battery Backup System - SolarCity
 
Welcome to TMC ClownMouth! They are already selling a very small volume of stationary storage units through SolarCity. This is in partnership, likely where Solarcity buys the packs from Tesla and then leases it to residential customers. This makes a ton of sense as it leverages the channel SolarCity is using to sell and install home power electronics already. As public companies that have to be accountable to shareholders, Tesla wouldn't just hand over developments stemming from significant R&D investments and gigafactories. They could be sweetheart deals but would certainly be mutually beneficial to shareholders of both.

The short answer is that they would both be very large participants in stationary storage market growth, but it would benefit each respective company in different ways.

Here's the current offering for your reference:
Home Energy Storage & Battery Backup System - SolarCity
Great. Thanks for the information and link, eepic.
 
They are already selling a very small volume of stationary storage units through SolarCity. This is in partnership, likely where Solarcity buys the packs from Tesla and then leases it to residential customers. This makes a ton of sense as it leverages the channel SolarCity is using to sell and install home power electronics already. As public companies that have to be accountable to shareholders, Tesla wouldn't just hand over developments stemming from significant R&D investments and gigafactories. They could be sweetheart deals but would certainly be mutually beneficial to shareholders of both.
Right, so the real question is what the transfer price will be between the companies, and therefore how the profit is split. This is always a huge issue between related firms. I worked on a legal dispute that hinged on how Exxon priced transfers between its subsidiaries, and it's really complex when there are no market transactions against which to compare. Fortunately, Tesla Motors and Solar City are independent companies, with no overlapping officers (remember, Musk is the non-executive chairman of Solar City, not an officer), so there's good reason to believe that the pricing is fair to Tesla Motors.

You do wonder, though, when Tesla is going to drop the word "Motors" from its corporate name, or create a distinct Tesla Storage company under a Tesla Holdings umbrella.
 
Right, so the real question is what the transfer price will be between the companies, and therefore how the profit is split. This is always a huge issue between related firms. I worked on a legal dispute that hinged on how Exxon priced transfers between its subsidiaries, and it's really complex when there are no market transactions against which to compare. Fortunately, Tesla Motors and Solar City are independent companies, with no overlapping officers (remember, Musk is the non-executive chairman of Solar City, not an officer), so there's good reason to believe that the pricing is fair to Tesla Motors.

You do wonder, though, when Tesla is going to drop the word "Motors" from its corporate name, or create a distinct Tesla Storage company under a Tesla Holdings umbrella.

Tesla Power
 
For the new name.

Tesla Power Systems. This way we can all talk about the TPS reports. (see movie Office Space)

I thought we were supposed to hear about the ground breaking of a site before the end of June. They have one day left. Maybe this falls within the Musk time dilation.

Lower post is correct with end of june being a month away. I guess I have a hard time waiting.
 
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Right, so the real question is what the transfer price will be between the companies, and therefore how the profit is split. This is always a huge issue between related firms. I worked on a legal dispute that hinged on how Exxon priced transfers between its subsidiaries, and it's really complex when there are no market transactions against which to compare. Fortunately, Tesla Motors and Solar City are independent companies, with no overlapping officers (remember, Musk is the non-executive chairman of Solar City, not an officer), so there's good reason to believe that the pricing is fair to Tesla Motors.

You do wonder, though, when Tesla is going to drop the word "Motors" from its corporate name, or create a distinct Tesla Storage company under a Tesla Holdings umbrella.

Why drop "Motors"? --> Tesla Power Motors

:smile::smile: