Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[ZsoZso]

Model S is already MORE mass-market than Bolt will be for some time to come.

You are missing the point. Do not let facts get in the way of the good story:

1. Bolt is a mass-market car priced at $37,500 and planned to be produced upto 30,000 units per year (how many sold will be anybody's guess)
2. Tesla Model S is a niche toy for the few rich (selling over 50,000 a year is just a distraction, it does not match the definition of mass-market)
3. Tesla Model 3 is not mass market either, it will be too expensive at $35,000 starting price (production numbers simply don't matter)

So get on with the program and do not confuse the rock-solid definitions of tftf.

[/sarcasm]

 

[tftf]

I missed that. Another goal post move by tftf.

No, Tesla has been moving the goal posts for every vehicle launched so far...starting with the first Roadster. Prices were soon raised after the initial shipments - in other instances, lower-end models weren't/aren't available for years or are no longer offered (Model S 40, lower-end Model X versions delayed another year).

So while Tesla keeps talking about a $35k base price, I predict the Model3 versions actually available for ordering to be closer to $40-50k (at least until 2019 or 2020).

 

[The Blue Owl]

So while Tesla keeps talking about a $35k base price, I predict the Model3 versions available for order to be closer to $40-50k (at least until 2019 or 2020).

And it will be selling like hot cakes.

 

[Yggdrasill]

And it will be selling like hot cakes.

Indeed. 50-60k USD version will have stuff like AWD and ludicrous performance.

 

[dalalsid]

Indeed. 50-60k USD version will have stuff like AWD and ludicrous performance.

I highly doubt that.

This is what we should expect:

Model S Pricing (US$)	Estimated Model 3 Pricing (US$)
70	70000	60*	35000
70D	75000	60D*	40000
85	80000	75*	45000
85D	85000	75D*	50000
90D	88000
Performance	20000		20000
Ludicrous	10000		10000
Fancy Paint	1000-1500		1000-1500
Fancier Wheels	2500-4500		2500-4500
Leather	1750		1750
Fancier Seats (include leather)	2500
Fancier interior materials	750-1000		750-1000
Pano Roof	1500		1500
Spoiler	1000		1000
AutoPilot	2500		2500
Premium Interior & Lighting	3000		3000
Smart Air Suspension	2500		2500
Ultra High Fidelity Sound	2500		2500
Subzero Weather	1000		1000
Rear Facing Seats	3000
Fully Maxed	144,500		102,750

 

[Yggdrasill]

No way. Tesla will definitely reduce the pricing on various options as well. Greater volume, reduced complexity/quality and less margin allows for it.

I would expect pricing closer to what you find in this thread: Configure your Model 3 poll

 

[dalalsid]

No way. Tesla will definitely reduce the pricing on various options as well. Greater volume, reduced complexity/quality and less margin allows for it.

I would expect pricing closer to what you find in this thread: Configure your Model 3 poll

I have seen that thread but I highly doubt pricing will go that low. That is just setting up for disappointment. At the most I'd reduce most options by 20%. Some options like autopilot and ultra premium sound, I'd assume the same.
Tesla option pricing is already very competitive. For example - BMW goes from 33 - 63 for 320i to M3. I fully optioned out a BMW M3 - came to 86,500. I would not expect anything less with a fully optioned out Tesla Model 3.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I have seen that thread but I highly doubt pricing will go that low. That is just setting up for disappointment. At the most I'd reduce most options by 20%. Some options like autopilot and ultra premium sound, I'd assume the same.
Tesla option pricing is already very competitive. For example - BMW goes from 33 - 63 for 320i to M3. I fully optioned out a BMW M3 - came to 86,500. I would not expect anything less with a fully optioned out Tesla Model 3.

I'll agree the poll thread is likely somewhat optimistic. But I doubt the fully loaded Model 3 will break 75k. This is a very achievable price, and Tesla wants to show to the world that times have changed.

 

[wdolson]

And it will be selling like hot cakes.

The Model S is top of the $100K sedan market in large part because of all the people who would never consider buying a $100K car got upsold to the Tesla. Something like 50% or more of Model S owners never owned a car worth more than $60K before.

The same thing will happen with the Model 3. I expect a lot of people who have never spent more than $30K on a car before will plunk down $40K-$50K for a mid range Model 3.

 

[Johan]

The Model S is top of the $100K sedan market in large part because of all the people who would never consider buying a $100K car got upsold to the Tesla. Something like 50% or more of Model S owners never owned a car worth more than $60K before.

The same thing will happen with the Model 3. I expect a lot of people who have never spent more than $30K on a car before will plunk down $40K-$50K for a mid range Model 3.

YES! And that demographic is a lot bigger than the "Well I never spent more than $60k but what they heck I'll spend $100k+ because the Model S/X is too cool to pass on"-demographic.

 

[Bangor Bob]

Still very annoyed that school district here demands the use of TI. My poor son went through high school without the joy of RPN.

Requires? Damn, isn't there an app for that yet?

 

[wdolson]

YES! And that demographic is a lot bigger than the "Well I never spent more than $60k but what they heck I'll spend $100k+ because the Model S/X is too cool to pass on"-demographic.

Exactly. If a Model S with the features I want cost $50K, I'd have bought one by now. It would have been a little more than my target price when I started looking (around $40K), but a $10K stretch is not a huge burden for me. The stretch to the Model S is a lot tougher and takes a lot longer.

 

[woof]

Requires? Damn, isn't there an app for that yet?

Several, including my favorite "pcalc". School doesn't allow anything but the approved list of TI calculators. No phones, no tablets, no watches, no laptops, just TI Models A, B or C.

 

[tftf]

You are missing the point. Do not let facts get in the way of the good story:
1. Bolt is a mass-market car priced at $37,500 and planned to be produced upto 30,000 units per year (how many sold will be anybody's guess)
[/sarcasm]

Do you really think that GM will have trouble selling 30k units/year with the announced specs? This car will be sold nation-wide from the start and its development was fast-tracked:

"It's very safe to assume that this car is going to be here sooner rather than later," Balch said. "We've also committed that it's going to be a 50-state vehicle at launch. That's to show our commitment to the technology. Our hope is that it becomes a high-volume-selling car, and that it's not just for the coasts, it's not just for a certain income level, but it is a long-range EV that anybody can get themselves into. ... [This is] a good alternative to the luxury long-range EVs that are available now. It's something that people can see themselves actually affording to get into. That's the message from this car."

Chevy 'committed to marketing Bolt the right way'

Doesn't sound like a compliance car at all to me. And do you have any links that GM will limit annual sales at 30k? Doesn't make any sense as battery prices keep falling.

I can see GM increasing production targets (unless there's a major hiccup, e.g. a major QC problem or other unexpected launch glitch) soon after the Bolt is launched. Together with the 2017 Volt, GM will have a very compelling line-up in alternative propulsion.

A Cadillac with PHEV options (same battery capacity as 2017 Volt) will also follow in 2016: Cadillac CT6 to Offer Plug-In Hybrid Electric Technology

 

[techmaven]

I think the Bolt will do very well, albeit with the caveat that we don't really know all that much about the car. Given that GM is fast tracking this vehicle and it is supposively delivering to buyers in late 2016 or early 2017, we don't have ballpark figures or really any sense for battery capacity, horsepower, 0-60 times, MPGe, curb weight, AC charging power, DC charging power, and so forth. That's very curious.

We actually know more about the Model 3's range than the Bolt's.

 

[Gerardf]

I think the Bolt will do very well, albeit with the caveat that we don't really know all that much about the car. Given that GM is fast tracking this vehicle and it is supposively delivering to buyers in late 2016 or early 2017, we don't have ballpark figures or really any sense for battery capacity, horsepower, 0-60 times, MPGe, curb weight, AC charging power, DC charging power, and so forth. That's very curious.

Indeed.
And I would like to add that we still have not seen any plan / strategy for a Fast-Charge network to enable roadtrips for the Bolt (assuming the Bolt will even support approx. 100 kW DC-fastcharge).
Unless GM sign's up with Tesla, I do not see how they can have a useful DC-fastcharge network active on time (or even before the Model-3 appears on the road).


Actually, I hope GM solves that problem, and that the Bolt is a success, and will ramp up to more than the planned ramp to 30k by 2020. Tesla's Model-3 production will be sold-out for many years to come.

Note: I am long TSLA. However I see more advantages for TSLA by GM making a success of the Bolt than the Bolt failing.

 

[tftf]

Unless GM sign's up with Tesla, I do not see how they can have a useful DC-fastcharge network active on time (or even before the Model-3 appears on the road).

The Bolt will feature CCS (99% certain given GM's prior announcements): Chevy Bolt - 200 mile range for $30k base price (after incentive) - Page 85

So will all other futuer EVs and some PHEVs from Western car makers - even Hyundai is reportedly looking at CCS for Western markets (which is surprising since the Kia Soul EV uses Chademo).

 

[Yggdrasill]

The Bolt will feature CCS (99% certain given GM's prior announcements): Chevy Bolt - 200 mile range for $30k base price (after incentive) - Page 85

No long-range capabilities will be a big downside in the US. CCS is more common in Europe, but it's still questionable if it's very practical to take long trips any time soon. None of the installed CCS chargers are more than 50 kW, and very few locations have more than one charger.

 

[techmaven]

The Bolt will feature CCS (99% certain given GM's prior announcements): Chevy Bolt - 200 mile range for $30k base price (after incentive) - Page 85

Especially since they are using CCS and there is plenty of turmoil associated with that spec as well as the nascent network build out, there is a very big question about the practicality of the Bolt in comparison to the Model 3. Will the Bolt ship with the current CCS spec? Can it fully utilize 200 amp charging with the current plug? Will it be able to handle the higher charge rates with the upcoming CCS revision? Will early adopters be screwed with non-upgradable gen 1 CCS? Will CCS be deployed as a real long distance traveling enabler in time? Will they build out charging locations with redundancy and capacity for reliable long distance travel? How fast will they deploy gen 2 CCS? Who will ensure that charging stations get repaired? Will GM help you if the CCS station is down?

 

[tftf]

No long-range capabilities will be a big downside in the US. CCS is more common in Europe, but it's still questionable if it's very practical to take long trips any time soon. None of the installed CCS chargers are more than 50 kW, and very few locations have more than one charger.

That will be solved within 2-3 years (once cars with larger batteries are sold from various car makers supporting the CCS standard). CCS will support 150 kW for upcoming cars with larger batteries. See for example:

Audi Commits To Nationwide 150 kW Fast Charge Network In U.S. - Video

Audi, BMW, Daimler, Porsche, Volkswagen Others All Part Of 150 kW CharIn CCS Fast Charge Initiative


Don't underestimate the power of open standards. CCS went from zero to over 1500 charging stations within 2-3 years in Europe: CCS/Combo Charge Map - Europe (and it's still growing very fast)