Speculation on Model S/X Pricing Strategy

[cciesingh]

I'm guessing Tesla's offer of $46k wasn't in the last 5 days. The giant price drops on the S/X since Friday are going to affect used values all the way down the line. What was $46k a week ago will be $35k or less now. If you think that's bad, if someone took delivery of a fully loaded P100D in the UK recently, the've probably lost around $80,000, and that could just be in weeks or even days!

My quote was from last month and is valid for another 4-5 days. This 46k offer will surely drop .

I saw an Inventory P100 over the weekend that I wanted, contacted sales on the phone as my usual sales folks never repsonded (prob due to pending job losses or uncertainty)...

Tesla took two days to get back to me and by then my desired vehicle was sold. Pissed off!

Now in regards to my trade in quote, can I sell my vehicle back to them for that agreed offer without committing to purchasing something else just yet?

 

[Saimaannorppa]

The truth of actual scale back may be less than it looks from the announcement. They probably look at sales guys and location performance data and let the worse performing units go. Regular layoff style, but making it look like a strategic win by emphasizing online channel. If experiment fails, they’ll hire assumed better performers without media announcements.

Surprise surprise: Update on Tesla Stores and Pricing

One week into it and it is a 100% correct guess, except they did announce the pull back. They needed a "positive" story line to support cost savings and price reductions, and moving to online provided that.

I hope and expect it all turns out well for employees, company and customers.

I have been involved with sales performance evaluations in my career. I have to tip my hat to Tesla for being so fast to adjust and actually implement such plans. Most companies struggle to make decisions on strategic and end-to-end level.

 

[Ostrichsak]

Tesla NEEDS to go private to be successful.

 

[David29]

Without getting into all the who-shot-John of the recent price changes, I took a look at what it would cost today to buy the closest thing I can to what I bought in 2015. The price difference is not that much, except for content differences that have occurred over time.

The nearest thing to my 70D is the Standard Range Model S, which starts at $79,000. Adding my red paint, the cream interior (closest to the gray I have), and Autopilot (but no FSD) brings the bottom line to $86,000. (I do not know if this includes the latest 3% price increase.) The sticker price for my car in 2015 was $87,450, so it would be a tad less today.

But there are content differences. Today, the standard equipment includes air suspension and upgraded audio, neither of which I purchased. In addition, the AP hardware is a newer generation, as is the computer processor. Plus the Standard Range has a range of 270 miles vs the 70D range of 240 miles. In effect, those are free upgrades. The current cars also include the center console, which I had to pay $600 for as an accessory. The only feature I had that is no longer available is the sunroof (unless you can get it as a special order). Mine cost $1500 but I recall the price rose over time, until they were discontinued. ( I am ignoring differences in available upholstery and wood colors and the lack of leather, etc.)

Bottom line, if I had to buy a car today and wanted something as close as possible to what I have, the sticker price would be $1450 less than it was in 2015. if I deducted the price of the sunroof from the 2015 price, the difference becomes only $50! Of course, this ignores the effects of tax credits on the out-of-pocket cost. Both the Federal rebate and my MA rebate are now less than they were.

I did this as an exercise. What it tells me is that regardless of how Tesla got here, for my car specifically, their pricing is not much different from 2015. The standard content is arguably better, so you get a bit more bang for the buck, but it's almost exactly the same number of dollars. Interesting....

 

[Neppaaja]

Registered a moment ago so Hi to everyone here!

I'm pondering whether to order a Model S during the weekend, before the prices are increased. At the moment S 100D with the Autopilot activated (w/o other options) costs about 93 k€ in Finland. If I calculated correctly, considering the announced (average) 3% price increase and that the Autopilot price will be "reverted to normal" (3,3 => 5,4 k€), the new price seems to be about 97,8 k€, i.e. about 4,8 k€ increase.

The interior update is speculated to come in Q3/19. Most likely the new interior will be a clear step forward but it's unclear if there's some price impact as well.

The bigger tech update is speculated to come in 21.

Considering all this I'm a bit lost whether to order now, or to wait for the interior update or even the bigger tech update(?). My current ice car is 3 years old and it could easily serve me until 21. Any advice from the Forum members to help me to make the right decision next weekend?

 

[Saimaannorppa]

If your car is a Tesla, I'd keep it until a clear step refresh happens. If not, then I'd go for one anyway without regrets.

If you'd be happy with current interior, I wouldn't be waiting for a rumored refresh. If there is e.g. moving to using one screen, that may be even slightly controversial.

The price for a 100D is really good compared to what it was. Personally I'd go for the Model 3 for now and get a MS refresh when it is available to minimize the potential loss in value.

 

[Neppaaja]

If your car is a Tesla, I'd keep it until a clear step refresh happens. If not, then I'd go for one anyway without regrets.

If you'd be happy with current interior, I wouldn't be waiting for a rumored refresh. If there is e.g. moving to using one screen, that may be even slightly controversial.

The price for a 100D is really good compared to what it was. Personally I'd go for the Model 3 for now and get a MS refresh when it is available to minimize the potential loss in value.

My current ride is (unfortunately) an ICE car (Audi A6).

I'm also relatively / quite happy about the current interior, as it's been refined over the years. In my opinion it was a one major improvement when they ditched that alcantara stripe on the dash late 17, at least I didn't like that dual-cloth finish at all.

Yep, 100D (or Long Range now) used to be over 120 k€ with my preferred configuration and now it's 93 k€. I'm sure Model 3 is a good car in it's class but I prefer a bit bigger cars.

Getting again a bit more biased towards buying an S.

 

[Saimaannorppa]

If you can do it, do it. You’ll get it for a lot less I paid for 90D. I switched from an old A8.

I was so happy to get one of the last exclusive vinyl/alcantara combo cars.

Check today’s Model Y unveiling in case there are some fleet wide changes or ”one more thing” moment, before pulling trigger.

More than interior, I’d be looking into clarity of roadmap for V3 supercharging, if it is of value to you.

 

[BPeter]

The S might be going back to its price from before the price drop. I'm looking at inventory cars now and the P100Ds all went back up $20K, some are even a few hundred more than they were pre-drop. I was really hoping to buy a used P100D once the market settled, darn.

 

[Neppaaja]

∆ Haven't tried a P version but it must be a beast as I find even a normal 100D almost a bit scary. I would probably hit the I-want-my-mommy button.

I had a look at model 3 today for the first time and model S's interior is definately more to my taste.

Chances that i'll hit order-model-S-button this weekend are well over 50% now.

 

[Tarzan_fi]

I hit the order button for Model S immediately after the price drop. Sales Reps expected that the price was wrong as it was below that of the US. I thought its fine; then I won't just take the car... But it was true so I just sold my GT-R to my friend and I'm now waiting for the delivery.

I would be surprised to see prices moving up in a meaningful way, as it is already an old model. Germans would replace it this year. But we shall see.

 

[Neppaaja]

Sales Reps expected that the price was wrong as it was below that of the US.

Do you mean P with ludicrous? I think in the US you have to pay abt 15 k$ extra to get the L but in Europe it's included in the P(?).

 

[Tarzan_fi]

Do you mean P with ludicrous? I think in the US you have to pay abt 15 k$ extra to get the L but in Europe it's included in the P(?).

Well that's what they told me. I just pressed the button

Honestly, I think EUR 100k is a good price point for an EV with ok quality and Ludicrous performance. I personally would not pay much more than that. Porsche Taycan will be in the market soon, and it will definitely stomp Tesla in build quality. It will probably also maintain its value better.

 

[GeoX750]

What price are the S and X going up to on Monday ?

Tesla says 3%, but S and X prices went down, I think they went more than the 6% they said prices were reduced.

 

[Neppaaja]

Well that's what they told me. I just pressed the button

Honestly, I think EUR 100k is a good price point for an EV with ok quality and Ludicrous performance. I personally would not pay much more than that. Porsche Taycan will be in the market soon, and it will definitely stomp Tesla in build quality. It will probably also maintain its value better.

I think 100 k€ is a lot of money for a car , especially for one with just "ok quality" . Quality, when it comes to quality of the interior, has not been strong points of Tesla, but in my opinion the latest finish etc. has been satisfactory (not bad enough to turn me to consider the other makes ).

Taycan and maybe E-Tron GT will be good / excellent cars, but I need to to see some evidence first of their Godness .

 

[Saimaannorppa]

I think 100 k€ is a lot of money for a car , especially for one with just "ok quality" . Quality, when it comes to quality of the interior, has not been strong points of Tesla, but in my opinion the latest finish etc. has been satisfactory (not bad enough to turn me to consider the other makes ).

Taycan and maybe E-Tron GT will be good / excellent cars, but I need to to see some evidence first of their Godness .

I wouldn’t be first adopter of VAG electric motors and batteries. Tesla has worked out related problems, and seems to have hard to reach level of efficiency. I’d wait for some statistics on battery degradation as evidence, especially if 350kW charging is promised. Which leads to another moat: charging network for roadtrips is non-existing and development is in 3rd party hands. 350kW charging may turn out to be 80kW charging in reality (see Teslabjorn’s éTron charging test). 3rd party charging means you can’t really even expect anything.

Those are the main reasons I’m not even considering other EVs currently.

Btw. I’ve done pretty good DIY improvements on the interior quality feel, but fully agree 100k€ car shouldn’t have room for such.

 

[Neppaaja]

∆ You are absolutely right that Tesla has a lot of experience of building reliable EVs, which the other manufactures don't have yet.

There are still some inventory 75Ds in Finland. The starting prices (before taxes) were around 81 k€ a couple of days ago, but when I checked them today they started at 72 k€, i.e. about 9 k€ drop. It seems that they really want sell those existing 75Ds before they start receiveing new Standard Range models with bigger battery (sw limited 100 kWh?).

 

[Saimaannorppa]

∆ You are absolutely right that Tesla has a lot of experience of building reliable EVs, which the other manufactures don't have yet.

There are still some inventory 75Ds in Finland. The starting prices (before taxes) were around 81 k€ a couple of days ago, but when I checked them today they started at 72 k€, i.e. about 9 k€ drop. It seems that they really want sell those existing 75Ds before they start receiveing new Standard Range models with bigger battery (sw limited 100 kWh?).

There was some speculation that the newest spec Model S SR battery is not software limited, but a 100kWh battery with one module less, resulting roughly 85kWh physical battery. Don’t remember seeing a confirmation which one it is. Software limited would be a better deal of course.

Take into account that 75kWh battery is 350 volt architecture, which is a little slower in supercharging, and likely does not get any benefit from supercharger v3 upgrade.

Inventory cars get an ”everything must go” at end of quarter every time if there is a lot of inventory. There will likely not be a better timing to buy. I had similar chance at q3 17 90D inventory push.

 

[Neppaaja]

^ Decision made, I placed order for a new Long Range model a moment ago. Perhaps there could have been good discounts on inventory cars, but at least I'll get a new batch to the back of the car, instead of that old battery capacity batch.

 

[PhaseWhite]

Well that's what they told me. I just pressed the button

Honestly, I think EUR 100k is a good price point for an EV with ok quality and Ludicrous performance. I personally would not pay much more than that. Porsche Taycan will be in the market soon, and it will definitely stomp Tesla in build quality. It will probably also maintain its value better.

I wouldn't be so sure about value retention. The EV space is evolving quickly and there are huge advances between car generations. The rapid tech advancement will probably depreciate the Porsche Taycan just as fast or faster than the Model S.

Also it seems the top of the line Taycan has performance specs that are inline with the Model 3 Performance. Model 3 performance is about half the price so the Taycan will need to be a god on the track to justify the performance premium.