Some Sig X owners have scheduled delivery dates in December 2015

[FarmerDave]

The only thing VIN assignment means in terms of building the car is that the order is confirmed and has been released to Production. It has nothing to do with the order in which the cars are built except F > S > P (except for Founder-by-referral which gets mixed in with the Sigs).

 

[dirkhh]

That would be very unlikely. I could see a week or two delay to attempt to deliver most of the Sigs first. Some people got really bent out of shape that a production car was delivered before a Sig even if it was only a few days with the Model S.

I actually developed a fun crazy theory... here it goes.

Tesla will build all the US Sigs that have been ordered / confirmed by... whatever, today.
Then they will build a few hundred Model X that will go to the different stores as test drive cars.
That should give them a couple of days to get the Sigs ready to be delivered and either two the customers (West Coast) or have delivery dates settled with the customers (rest of the country).
Now they will start making / delivering the first P90DL production reservations.

That would be a reasonably logical and useful way to avoid the "my Sig was delivered after that production car" issue without having to artificially park production cars... and it will give the urgently needed test drive cars to the stores... they want those there rather soon because quite a few Sig reservation holders are waiting for a hands on experience before clicking the button...

 

[aesculus]

Tesla will build all the US Sigs that have been ordered / confirmed by... whatever, today.
Then they will build a few hundred Model X that will go to the different stores as test drive cars.
That should give them a couple of days to get the Sigs ready to be delivered and either two the customers (West Coast) or have delivery dates settled with the customers (rest of the country).

This makes sense to me. There are still a lot of people who have not seen or sat in one of the cars yet and are on the fence deciding to pull the trigger or bail. Getting everyone comfortable, and in the order they reserved, should be a priority.

 

[AlMc]

I actually developed a fun crazy theory... here it goes.

Tesla will build all the US Sigs that have been ordered / confirmed by... whatever, today.
Then they will build a few hundred Model X that will go to the different stores as test drive cars.
That should give them a couple of days to get the Sigs ready to be delivered and either two the customers (West Coast) or have delivery dates settled with the customers (rest of the country).
Now they will start making / delivering the first P90DL production reservations.

That would be a reasonably logical and useful way to avoid the "my Sig was delivered after that production car" issue without having to artificially park production cars... and it will give the urgently needed test drive cars to the stores... they want those there rather soon because quite a few Sig reservation holders are waiting for a hands on experience before clicking the button...

This makes sense to me. There are still a lot of people who have not seen or sat in one of the cars yet and are on the fence deciding to pull the trigger or bail. Getting everyone comfortable, and in the order they reserved, should be a priority.

Dirk.....That makes WAY to much sense............:wink:

 

[n88]

I actually developed a fun crazy theory... here it goes.

Tesla will build all the US Sigs that have been ordered / confirmed by... whatever, today.
Then they will build a few hundred Model X that will go to the different stores as test drive cars.
That should give them a couple of days to get the Sigs ready to be delivered and either two the customers (West Coast) or have delivery dates settled with the customers (rest of the country).
Now they will start making / delivering the first P90DL production reservations.

That would be a reasonably logical and useful way to avoid the "my Sig was delivered after that production car" issue without having to artificially park production cars... and it will give the urgently needed test drive cars to the stores... they want those there rather soon because quite a few Sig reservation holders are waiting for a hands on experience before clicking the button...

I think you are right on track... and would only embellish a bit, thinking like a CFO:

Get as many Sigs out by year end to max year end statements (and to stick it to Eds, but sadly, it looks like those #s are on target)
For Q1 2016, deliver remaining Sigs and determine which SCs have the most reservations and un-ordered X's and ship demos to those sites first to max out reservation conversions, then to other SCs in order of ratio of un-ordered/reservations.
Then, start making production P90D's for delivery, as VINs just issued for as high as 28xx production P90Ds just announced.
Then, and here's a big assumption... that the take rate on P90Ds is a lot lower on the X than the S, 90Ds will then be produced, earlier than originally stated. It would make sense since the X is more family oriented and fewer buyers will opt for the uber performance model.

Naturally, this is all wishful thinking to get my 90D faster!

 

[hill]

https://modelxtracker.com/

Umm - maybe I failed to articulate the 1st sentence of the post you quoted, as this is the exact map i'd already hoped to see better developed - by suggesting a Google spreadsheet - quickly accessible by all members. I guess I was wrong - not the 1st time
.

 

[KenN]

Glad to see that P holders ...

I know it's juvenile, but this made me giggle.

 

[BillC]

Been given 12/29 delivery Sig X 10 AM Fremont. I hope it's firm cause I traded in my MS at SC today and fly to SFO Sunday!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Sig vin 22x, got a call today that I could pick it up at factory on 12/26, that's like 3 days warning over Christmas! No problem, Tesla, yeah, I have $120k lying around with like 1/2 business day before delivery! Luckily, I outsmarted Tesla and did in fact have $120k lying around...

I put in my info on modelxtracker.com. FYI, it took me a while to figure out where to put in my delivery date info!

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Sig vin 22x, got a call today that I could pick it up at factory on 12/26, that's like 3 days warning over Christmas! No problem, Tesla, yeah, I have $120k lying around with like 1/2 business day before delivery! Luckily, I outsmarted Tesla and did in fact have $120k lying around...

I put in my info on modelxtracker.com. FYI, it took me a while to figure out where to put in my delivery date info!

So what you're saying is "OMG! OMG! OMG! I'm getting my X in 3 days!" Or something like that.

 

[SCModelX]

So what you're saying is "OMG! OMG! OMG! I'm getting my X in 3 days!" Or something like that.

RIGHT?!?!?! That's exactly what they're sayin'!! Congrats!!

 

[MaxK]

Sig vin 22x, got a call today that I could pick it up at factory on 12/26, that's like 3 days warning over Christmas! No problem, Tesla, yeah, I have $120k lying around with like 1/2 business day before delivery! Luckily, I outsmarted Tesla and did in fact have $120k lying around...

I put in my info on modelxtracker.com. FYI, it took me a while to figure out where to put in my delivery date info!

I can relate. I got the call 48 hours ago and picked up tonight. I do count myself lucky to have the cash available to write a check on short notice and glad I didn't have to wrap of financing in 48 hours.

I had surgery this morning and came out of general anesthesia at noon, but there was not way I was missing my delivery time after waiting nearly 3 years.

 

[SCModelX]

I can relate. I got the call 48 hours ago and picked up tonight. I do count myself lucky to have the cash available to write a check on short notice and glad I didn't have to wrap of financing in 48 hours.

I had surgery this morning and came out of general anesthesia at noon, but there was not way I was missing my delivery time after waiting nearly 3 years.

YES!!! The floodgates are seeming to be opening!! (I'd do the same FYI. I pushed my honeymoon back 2 days to attend the last minute invite the the reveal in Fremont. We're crazy like that!)

- - - Updated - - -

The only thing VIN assignment means in terms of building the car is that the order is confirmed and has been released to Production. It has nothing to do with the order in which the cars are built except F > S > P (except for Founder-by-referral which gets mixed in with the Sigs).

So, what about THIS?!?!!? My VIN was released today... umm ... STOKED!! Then I see the VIN and it's F0004xx... Ummm, I've been WAY upgraded?!?!? WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN... haha!

 

[pvogel]

YES!!! The floodgates are seeming to be opening!! (I'd do the same FYI. I pushed my honeymoon back 2 days to attend the last minute invite the the reveal in Fremont. We're crazy like that!)

- - - Updated - - -



So, what about THIS?!?!!? My VIN was released today... umm ... STOKED!! Then I see the VIN and it's F0004xx... Ummm, I've been WAY upgraded?!?!? WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN... haha!

The F in that position is for the manufacturing location (Fremont), if it were for Founder you'd have less than 6 digits after the F

 

[Cosmacelf]

So what you're saying is "OMG! OMG! OMG! I'm getting my X in 3 days!" Or something like that.

Yes, that is what I'm thinking. Thanks for decoding that!

 

[omarsultan]

Get as many Sigs out by year end to max year end statements (and to stick it to Eds, but sadly, it looks like those #s are on target)
For Q1 2016, deliver remaining Sigs and determine which SCs have the most reservations and un-ordered X's and ship demos to those sites first to max out reservation conversions, then to other SCs in order of ratio of un-ordered/reservations.

I have heard a couple of SvCs mention Feb/March timeframe for getting an MX into the showroom, but I think the priority will still be to work off the backlog as quickly as possible. One of the thing analysts are going to be looking for is a sharp ramp in MX deliveries in Q1 and siphoning off cars for demos will not help that. I do agree the timing of the 90D is going to be dependent on when they start to see a taper on P90D orders, but I think you might see a higher take rate than expected, as there are folks like me, who have a 10 year old Jeep and cannot wait until mid-year to replace it, hence, buying P90D where we might otherwise have just gotten the 90D if wait times were closer.

 

[bobbykansara]

Agreed. I never intended to order the P90D. This was going to be my winter car, and I'm basically a soccer dad schlepping kids who was looking for a performance oriented minivan. But when I saw that I'd have to wait longer unless I got the P, then I decided to upgrade. And for many of us who can afford to buy the 90D, I don't think it's too great a leap to just decide to spend a little more and get the P90D. And of course, once I made that leap, I couldn't resist getting the Ludicrous upgrade too. I specifically ordered the configuration that allowed me to get the car soonest. I am very excited that the dam has burst and the floodgates have opened. Congrats to all of the lucky signature owners!

 

[n88]

One of the thing analysts are going to be looking for is a sharp ramp in MX deliveries in Q1 and siphoning off cars for demos will not help that. I do agree the timing of the 90D is going to be dependent on when they start to see a taper on P90D orders, but I think you might see a higher take rate than expected, as there are folks like me, who have a 10 year old Jeep and cannot wait until mid-year to replace it, hence, buying P90D where we might otherwise have just gotten the 90D if wait times were closer.

Given past statements and quotes from Elon, I don't think TM needs or cares to placate analysts... unless A. they are planning a new stock issue, B. planning to make acquisitions using TM stock as $ or C. management is worried about being replaced, neither of which is in play at the moment. The price of TM stock otherwise is in reality meaningless to TM. Executing their business model/plan is their major goal. A 100 or so demos are insignificant as to ramp up analyst concerns and could be responsible for a multiple of new reservations for later in the year.

As far a P90D's... given there will be a skew early on of higher P90D take rates for the reasons stated, so let's look at numbers. How many X's does everyone reasonably believe will be delivered in Q1? Assuming slightly higher overall S&X production rate than Q4, and half are X's per other posts regarding current production, the # should be about 7,500 Xs by March 31. (60,000 annual / 4quarters/ 50% ). So let's be conservative and say 6,000 Xs will be delivered. Out of 25K reservations, what % will be P90Ds? Although there are a fair number of enthusiasts like ourselves who might go P90D to get the car earlier, I just don't see a 25% overall take rate among the general reservation population. So I'm predicting that there will be some 90Ds MSRP over 100K delivered in Q1 in the latter half of March. Since a lot of us are anxious to get our X's, what does everyone else think?

 

[vandacca]

I guess it's too late for an X mass-delivery to occur this week?

 

[CarlK]

The fact that they have slowed down in sending invitation to configure makes me to think that they did have enough P90D orders from the initial 10,000 or so invitations to make them busy for a while.