The car has been shown, the launch features and specs are published, and prices are available.
I'm a legitimate Model 3 intender and I'm parsing all the teeth gnashing over various elements of the launch. The loudest voices in the last 48 hours seem to be from those who expected a self driving Audi S4 for $34,995 available on September 1st, 2017. Maybe unexpectedly, this gives me great hope for the ultimate success of the Model 3. I'll explain.
In the past ten years there have been three consumer facing products which have starkly defied the predicted success of the loudest voices at launch. They are the Apple iPhone, the Nest Learning Thermostat, and the Tesla Model S. I see so many parallels with them and the Model 3.
1. iPhone. Of course the iPhone was famously derided by some very influential people at launch, such as Steve Ballmer and Jim Balsillie. Who would pay $500 for a phone?! You want to store more than the basics, that'll be $600 (long range battery)!! It can't even do MMS (instrument cluster)! It can't shoot video! No 3G! You can buy a RAZR (Bolt) that will match the iPhone spec-for-spec and you can save 50%! Of course we all know how this played out; Ballmer is out on his ass, BlackBerry is kaput, and Apple owns the absolute bulk of profit and mindshare in the smartphone space just ten years later. I personally sacrificed other perks in life and took on extra work in 2007 to be able to afford an iPhone 8GB. No, it wasn't the financially wise thing to do spending so much on what was considered a toy but it's what I did. I stretched to get something I loved and I've now had four or five of them in succession.
2. Nest Learning Thermostat. Man, when this launched the talking heads were just like the ones for the iPhone (and TM3). Who on earth would pay $250 for a thermostat? For crying out loud you need a smartphone and persistent Internet access to even make the most use of it. That'll drive up your data plan! It doesn't even have any damned buttons! What if the Internet goes out! When I bought my first house (which I still live in) and the original thermostat conked out I stretched to get a Nest. It cost 400% more than the traditional option. In my personal orbit I'd say that in 80% of homes I visit there is an Internet-connected smart thermostat and the bulk of those are Nests.
3. Tesla Model S. Don't need much backstory here, the pundits were tripping over themselves predicting a few thousand deliveries at most followed by ultimate failure in late 2011. "What LEAF driver can afford a $100,000 car?!" "Don't people know it'll take 4.7 million miles worth of gasoline to offset the cost over a used Honda Accord?" It went on an on. The two families closest to me with a Model S came from a Toyota Prius and a Jetta TDI. These people tried the Model S and loved it so much that they stretched to get it and they don't regret it. They certainly didn't put themselves into financial jeopardy to get the car, but they otherwise wouldn't have gone up that far on the pricing ladder for other comparable models.
So that brings us to the Model 3. Like any car in its class the price will spike if you want the fun stuff. Has anyone configured a comparably-equipped 340i? Spoiler alert, it costs the same as the Model 3 and can't steer itself down the freeway. You will not get that autonomous S4 for $34,995. Never mind that, if the Model 3 is anywhere near as good as the early experiences claim and customers fall in love with it then the cars will be flying out of Fremont at a rapid clip while the rest of the auto industry will be baffled. Just like the iPhone, Nest, and Model S. It'll be fun to watch.
I'm a legitimate Model 3 intender and I'm parsing all the teeth gnashing over various elements of the launch. The loudest voices in the last 48 hours seem to be from those who expected a self driving Audi S4 for $34,995 available on September 1st, 2017. Maybe unexpectedly, this gives me great hope for the ultimate success of the Model 3. I'll explain.
In the past ten years there have been three consumer facing products which have starkly defied the predicted success of the loudest voices at launch. They are the Apple iPhone, the Nest Learning Thermostat, and the Tesla Model S. I see so many parallels with them and the Model 3.
1. iPhone. Of course the iPhone was famously derided by some very influential people at launch, such as Steve Ballmer and Jim Balsillie. Who would pay $500 for a phone?! You want to store more than the basics, that'll be $600 (long range battery)!! It can't even do MMS (instrument cluster)! It can't shoot video! No 3G! You can buy a RAZR (Bolt) that will match the iPhone spec-for-spec and you can save 50%! Of course we all know how this played out; Ballmer is out on his ass, BlackBerry is kaput, and Apple owns the absolute bulk of profit and mindshare in the smartphone space just ten years later. I personally sacrificed other perks in life and took on extra work in 2007 to be able to afford an iPhone 8GB. No, it wasn't the financially wise thing to do spending so much on what was considered a toy but it's what I did. I stretched to get something I loved and I've now had four or five of them in succession.
2. Nest Learning Thermostat. Man, when this launched the talking heads were just like the ones for the iPhone (and TM3). Who on earth would pay $250 for a thermostat? For crying out loud you need a smartphone and persistent Internet access to even make the most use of it. That'll drive up your data plan! It doesn't even have any damned buttons! What if the Internet goes out! When I bought my first house (which I still live in) and the original thermostat conked out I stretched to get a Nest. It cost 400% more than the traditional option. In my personal orbit I'd say that in 80% of homes I visit there is an Internet-connected smart thermostat and the bulk of those are Nests.
3. Tesla Model S. Don't need much backstory here, the pundits were tripping over themselves predicting a few thousand deliveries at most followed by ultimate failure in late 2011. "What LEAF driver can afford a $100,000 car?!" "Don't people know it'll take 4.7 million miles worth of gasoline to offset the cost over a used Honda Accord?" It went on an on. The two families closest to me with a Model S came from a Toyota Prius and a Jetta TDI. These people tried the Model S and loved it so much that they stretched to get it and they don't regret it. They certainly didn't put themselves into financial jeopardy to get the car, but they otherwise wouldn't have gone up that far on the pricing ladder for other comparable models.
So that brings us to the Model 3. Like any car in its class the price will spike if you want the fun stuff. Has anyone configured a comparably-equipped 340i? Spoiler alert, it costs the same as the Model 3 and can't steer itself down the freeway. You will not get that autonomous S4 for $34,995. Never mind that, if the Model 3 is anywhere near as good as the early experiences claim and customers fall in love with it then the cars will be flying out of Fremont at a rapid clip while the rest of the auto industry will be baffled. Just like the iPhone, Nest, and Model S. It'll be fun to watch.
