futureproof
Member
No problem...@futureproof Thanks for the proxy link. I was looking at some tool which has outdated info.
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No problem...@futureproof Thanks for the proxy link. I was looking at some tool which has outdated info.
YesWe must be watching two different videos because I didn't hear him say that... Anyway, after all that was said yesterday, do you really think Sunpower sees leasing as a big part of their future strategy in residential DG? Do they offer any serious competition to Solarcity in the residential lease/ppa market?
I appreciate your optimism. But as a general rule SCTY always falls after ER. Here are the price changes on each of the post ER days (starting from the latest):
-5.71%
-16.70%
-10.80%
-12.37%
-14.43%
Here in MA they by default SCTY does get the SRECs. HOWEVER, if you ask nicely, they will quote a system where the customer gets the SRECs.This was probably mentioned before but am I right in assuming that with their lease agreements SCTY retains the right to the SRECs?
Unlocking Solar Energy's Value as an Asset Class | Alternative Energy Stocks
interesting article about yeildco and securitization. The articles discussion of retained value supports the point HenryF makes about truly understanding the best metrics to assess value and health of Solarcity...
We must be watching two different videos because I didn't hear him say that... Anyway, after all that was said yesterday, do you really think Sunpower sees leasing as a big part of their future strategy in residential DG? Do they offer any serious competition to Solarcity in the residential lease/ppa market?
Shares Outstanding[SIZE=-1][SUP]5[/SUP][/SIZE]:91.50M
% Held by Insiders[SIZE=-1][SUP]1[/SUP][/SIZE]:73.30%
% Held by Institutions[SIZE=-1][SUP]1[/SUP][/SIZE]:7.60%
Shares Short (as of Mar 31, 2014)[SIZE=-1][SUP]3[/SUP][/SIZE]:10.74M
Short % of Float (as of Mar 31, 2014)[SIZE=-1][SUP]3[/SUP][/SIZE]:49.90%
Short 49%? That can't be right? Holy cow talk about a short squeeze.
i also believe i saw that spwr had 30,000 leases already. do you know the number for scty?futureproof - I am going to give you some really good investment advice for your personal benefit, so please don't take this the wrong way:
I think that you should be a little bit more open-minded in the solar sector. You are dangerously looking at everything with your SCTY-colored glasses on. SolarCity is a great company, and I am sure that they will do well in the future and continue to grow. But because Tom Werner, CEO of SunPower, did not use the word 'lease' in his CNBC interview does not mean that SPWR is no competition to SCTY. You are looking for holes, that don't exist, with the sole intent of spinning it into a SCTY positive. I don't think you are doing this intentionally, which makes it all the more dangerous for you as an investor. I would recommend that you look at the whole solar sector with an open mind, because if SCTY were to start falling apart (hypothetically speaking) then I am fairly certain that you would see it as a "buying opportunity" and that you would ride SCTY all the way down to $0.
There is 1 residential market, and it doesn't matter if you do lease, PPA, or cash sale; it is the same thing. Once a solar system goes up on a roof, it is over and that is one less potential customer. 99% of people don't have solar, and 99% of those have no idea if they would want a lease, PPA, or cash sale.
That said, SPWR just raised over $500m in a few short months to do "residential" solar systems. This is obviously all dedicated for leases, because you don't have to raise money to do cash sales, duh!
SPWR also said in their presentation that they will do 420MWp - 450MWp of residential in 2014, and this doesn't include DG or power plants. SCTY on the other hand will do 475MWp - 525MWp in 2014 in total, including DG and other. It doesn't matter if it is lease or cash sale, even though the vast majority will be lease, because it is direct competition to SCTY. SPWR's MWp is a lot more valuable than SCTY's MWp, because SWPR's 420MWp (low end) will produce more energy than SCTY's 525MWp (high end estimate).
Now lets not forget about other competitors: Vivint, Sunrun, RGSE, EON, NRG, other utilities, CSIQ, etc.
Everybody wants a piece of the residential market, because margins are too high and they are going to get squeezed in the future, especially when the 30% tax credit expires in a short 2.5 years.
Therefore, SPWR is going to do more in residential alone than SCTY will do in residential and DG combined in 2014. Then SPWR will do another 800MW in DG and power plants in 2014, and their growth rate is pretty impressive as well (it will double from 1GW to 2GW from 2013 to 2016). SPWR also has some potentially awesome C7 technology in its pocket that can increase growth rates exponentially.
So the real question is why is SPWR a $4.2b market cap, while SCTY is a $5.4b market cap?
IMO SPWR is a far better investment than SCTY, and I would be looking at them for the best risk/reward in solar. I am not saying that SCTY will not outperform them, but the risk is significantly higher in SCTY and they would have to retain what are IMO unsustainable growth rates in order to outperform SPWR as an investment.
This is just my honest opinion.
Good luck to everyone and happy investing!
YPE Smart Grid Panel Series: The California Grid Under... Tickets, San Francisco - Eventbrite
This should be an interesting panel discussion on Thursday(24APR). Might be a good introduction to how Solarcity will integrate DG storage with the grid...
update: it is interesting to note that solarcity's speaker Ryan Hanley was just working for PG&E 6 months ago doing grid integration with PG&E's speaker... Hmm... Could there be a possible PG&E/Solarcity partnership on the horizon?
How Californias Biggest Solar Utility Is Tackling the Grid Edge Challenge : Greentech Media
Ryan Hanley - working on Smart Grid Tech | US-Ireland Alliance
This is just my honest opinion.
Good luck to everyone and happy investing!
Thank you Sleepy for your contributions to this thread. I would assume that SCTY provides an incentive to renew the lease in 20 years, otherwise it would be a bit ludicrous to include any value from that. No? Do they really use 6% discount rate to calculate the retained value of the leases? Forgive my lack of experience with economics, but does that strike you as odd when they are almost certainly using a higher rate to determine whether to pursue the lease in the first place? Or doesn't that matter?
HenryF, I'm thinking the DFJ fund is diferrent from entities associated with DFJ...
Shares Outstanding[SIZE=-1][SUP]5[/SUP][/SIZE]:91.50M
% Held by Insiders[SIZE=-1][SUP]1[/SUP][/SIZE]:73.30%
% Held by Institutions[SIZE=-1][SUP]1[/SUP][/SIZE]:7.60%
Shares Short (as of Mar 31, 2014)[SIZE=-1][SUP]3[/SUP][/SIZE]:10.74M
Short % of Float (as of Mar 31, 2014)[SIZE=-1][SUP]3[/SUP][/SIZE]:49.90%
Short 49%? That can't be right? Holy cow talk about a short squeeze.