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jhm
Well-Known Member
Rooftop solar could provide nearly half of US electricity demand
Here's some good news for rooftop solar. NREL estimates that rooftop solar can provide 40% of electricity consumed in the US. This was based on using 16% average panel efficiency. If 20% efficiency is assumed this goes up to 50% of consumption. SolarCity, SunPower and Panasonic are now building panels at about 22%. So perhaps this gets up to 55% potential. Also canopies and ground mount are ignored in this study.
So it looks like SolarCity has an addressable market of about half of all electricity consumed. That is enormous.
Here's some good news for rooftop solar. NREL estimates that rooftop solar can provide 40% of electricity consumed in the US. This was based on using 16% average panel efficiency. If 20% efficiency is assumed this goes up to 50% of consumption. SolarCity, SunPower and Panasonic are now building panels at about 22%. So perhaps this gets up to 55% potential. Also canopies and ground mount are ignored in this study.
So it looks like SolarCity has an addressable market of about half of all electricity consumed. That is enormous.
Not really. Many people choose to buy direct. We don't actually know the addressable market. We can not really base the split between buying vs PPAs based on the rate of current installs because we don't know how much sales effort is being expended on either side.
From all indications it appears like that SC found a niche market where people don't have pay much taxes and thus can not make use of tax-credits fully. I didn't run the numbers but it would be interesting to find out demographics on that.
In other news, grid based solar is growing like a crop.
Harvesting Sunshine More Lucrative Than Crops at Some U.S. Farms
Eventually we will have so much solar that it will be very over-flooded. Batteries will be desperately needed for growth and the ultimate growth constraint will be the amount of storage. Cost of batteries needs to be factored into any parity analysis with fossil fuels.
Harvesting Sunshine More Lucrative Than Crops at Some U.S. Farms
Eventually we will have so much solar that it will be very over-flooded. Batteries will be desperately needed for growth and the ultimate growth constraint will be the amount of storage. Cost of batteries needs to be factored into any parity analysis with fossil fuels.
doggusfluffy
Closed
jhm
Well-Known Member
The key word here is "addressable." They are addressing the whole rooftop and canopy market; how successful they are in capturing market share is a separate matter. It's a big pie whatever their slice.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Considering the 740+ credit score demographic of SolarCity's customer base to this point, I would say that conclusion is nearly 180 degrees incorrect. Half of the retired customers(which could be a substantial amount) would perhaps look at it from that perspective, but the vast majority of customers to date have incomes well above average.
Not having to deal with the tax credit likely has brought in more customers than the need to bypass it.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
And it's not addressable production percentage that counts, it's addressable current dollars spent on electricity. Clearly residential/commercial is the sweet spot for that, and those just happen to be the sectors that didn't have the option to self produce.....until now. Targeting the industrial customer is like targeting utility scale solar installs, there's never going to be any margin.
Not sure I agree that SC can't successfully compete on the purchase front. Imho, at least here in California, I think they have the market power to successfully compete in any part of the rooftop market (PPA, purchase, financed, etc.).
Thought I'd weigh in on this point with my own anecdote.
Both my brother and sister have installed solar on their homes in the last 2 years (they are basically professional middle class and can use the tax credit, but live paycheck to paycheck). Both used "cheaper" installers.
- My sister opted for a PPA. Ultimately it worked out, but her installation was a nightmare. It took months of delays and non-communication from the installer. She had the panels installed for 4 months before anything was turned on. Start to finish it took almost a year.
- My brother opted for a PPA at first. Installer took his deposit and basically never performed the work -- although they did upsell my brother on overpriced energy efficiency upgrades. My brother ultimately got his deposit back but it took months of wrangling. My brother then managed to successfully find another installer and get the job done on a purchased basis (albeit financed).
Much like with any contractor I hire, I will not choose the cheapest installer -- particularly for something being installed in my roof. Like most homeowners, I made too many mistakes earlier in life with low-bid providers doing shoddy work, or even with high quality installers failing on communication.
On solar directly, I've heard way too many anecdotes -- and not just from my family members -- for it to ever be worth my time and aggravation to save even $1.50/watt. I'll choose the dominant provider in my area -- the one that can deal with my utility, my city and install a clean technological product in a timely professional manner.
Heck, I still haven't ruled out using a PPA even though I could purchase outright.
SC might not be that provider, but I can guarantee that my decision will not be based on price. If you were to ask my brother or sister to choose again, they wouldn't be choosing based on price either.
And as an aside, it's always mystified me the stigma put on choosing PPA over financing/purchasing. Much like with car leasing versus buying, many rational people would choose a PPA over purchase. It could be because of psychological comfort about obsolete technology or it could also be that your own cost-of-money is sufficiently higher than what a PPA is charging you (e.g., you have better investment opportunities) or it could be for myriad other reasons.
doggusfluffy
Closed
Utah guv signs bills on power regulation, porn and lands lawsuit
To be fair, they also signed a bill declaring pornography as a public health crisis....so obviously they have it dialed in.
To be fair, they also signed a bill declaring pornography as a public health crisis....so obviously they have it dialed in.
I'm so freakin tired of this resistance. It.is.going.to.happen. I want to pull out my white glove and give them each a gentlemen's slap in the face.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
How is the SUNE debacle not dragging down SCTY? I was expecting a nice dip in options pricing and it keeps drifting upward.
doggusfluffy
Closed
Maybe all this new interest in Elon and Tesla is shining on some SCTY panels today?
The same analogy can be made to say that McDonalds has enormous potential to deliver all food to all Americans who are hungry. It's a stretch to link one particular company to the entirety of the need of the population. Especially when economics and supply/demand/competition are involved.
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