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SolarCity (SCTY)

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It's hard to imagine how SolarCity + Tesla Energy wouldn't remain a viable company with the vast amount of work that needs to be done globally... for the foreseeable future at least.

Venezuela Rations Electricity Amid Energy Crisis
The Venezuelan government is enormously dependent on oil revenue. So this situation does not surprise me.

I could see wealthy people in such an area loading up on Powerwalls and solar. This could allow even more political support for the government run utility to die. So it continues to get worse until most people have become off-grid capable. Not a pretty transition, but the end state could be much better than what they've got now.
 
Renim that does not tell the full story. You cherry picked the cheapest Solar that has been sold in the nation. They also have a 20 year PPA with a utility solar plant that is over $0.10 a kilowatt hour I believe

No, that was not cherry picking, that was an easy to find and very relevant to the situation in Nevada.

Cherry picking, check out the solar price in New Mexico 3.5 cents per kilowatt hour
http://www.bizjournals.com/albuquer...ew-nm-solar-farms-states-biggest-line-up.html sure it may levelise up to 4 cents, but it is a realistic price 2016

again the question is
How much solar do you want?

the wholesale price of solar PV panels from China is about 50cents per watt
its not that hard to fill a sea container with 840 panels
ironically the wholesale price of a solar panel is about equal to Solarcitys marketing cost
free solar panels anybody? because solarcity basically has a price double due to marketing cost.
 
The "Nevada situation" is fairly easy to analyze. Retail is 11¢ 24/7. Baseload wholesale is 3¢, peak wholesale is 8-14¢. (I think these are near correct)

Solar customers currently get net metering (11¢/kWh) for energy pushed to the grid and NV Energy wants to shift that to the baseload rate of 3¢/kWh. They also want a $39/month fee for solar customers.

Simple logic states that if the solar customer were not there to provide energy at peak, the utility would need to source wholesale energy at 8-14¢ from a peaker plant. So all these fees and lower payback rates are to fill the lost revenue to NV Energy, not to make the cost structure "more fair" to nonsolar customers. The fair and free-market way would be to shutter newly redundant peaker plants, not build even more at $900M a piece.

Residential solar is being driven out of the state to protect the inefficient but profitable status quo while NV Energy simulraneously builds out utility solar to keep all production behind the meter. It's clear as day.
 
Solar competes at the retail level. Oh wait, utilities can't compete at that level............. Regulatory Capture.

What is 'Regulatory Capture '
Regulatory capture is a theory associated with George Stigler, a Nobel laureate economist. It is the process by which regulatory agencies eventually come to be dominated by the very industries they were charged with regulating. Regulatory capture happens when a regulatory agency, formed to act in the public's interest, eventually acts in ways that benefit the industry it is supposed to be regulating, rather than the public.



Read more: Regulatory Capture Definition | Investopedia Regulatory Capture Definition | Investopedia
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Tesla, Switch backing effort to end NV Energy monopoly

After announcing the initiative in February and filing it with the Secretary of State’s office, organizers did not disclose who was backing the ballot measure.

In late February, several sources said it was being backed by gaming and technology companies. Matt Griffin, a lobbyist for the Energy Choice Initiative, was not immediately available for comment today.
 
The Energy Modernization Act of 2015 which includes the King-Reid amendment for "Net Metering", also includes an appropriation for the Flint Michigan water crisis. It is being held up by Utah Senator Mike Lee.

Is this not definitive "Regulatory Capture".

Michigan's lament: As Utah senator holds up aid package, Flint suffers


Senator Mike Lee.jpg


King-Reid Amendment.jpg
 
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China Is on an Epic Solar Power Binge

And China’s massive solar panel manufacturing sector needs new markets for its products. Patrick Jobin, an analyst at Credit Suisse, said Monday that a solar panel glut could hit the sector this year as China’s top three producers, JA Solar, JinkoSolar, and Trina Solar, continue to ramp up production despite flattening international demand. “We believe solar manufactures face an exacerbated, oversupplied environment in 2016,” he wrote. So the central government’s bold plans could be a strategy for soaking up the excess supply.
 
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Sent SolarCity Investor Relations an email looking for clarification around customer acquisition costs. They responded by putting me on the sales list and cold calling me twice on Easter Sunday. Not feeling great about the direction and cost of the SCTY acquisition process.
Ouch. When did you email them? If during the holiday, maybe some AI intern was on call. Otherwise, not a very good sign.
 
Vivent is very close to a MLM scheme that only happens to be involved in the Solar sector. Basically they have a gigantic mailing list and existing customer base and try to bundle together /sell every conceivable service related to the home. However, if you check out the BBB website, it's clear they use loads of subcontractors and questionable contracts to acquire and hold onto customers. Also, there

Basically everything that has to do with the home. Home security, TV, Internet, and Energy,

Sunedison and Terraform buying Vivent Solar was probably not a good idea, unless the objective was to get them out of the market so Sunedison could be acquired.

Also SunEdison is an old company with a lot of problems. This article does an okay job explaining certain things. (See link for the rest of the article)

Understanding SunEdison's Business Model - Market Realist

Overview of SunEdison—An Outperformer in the Solar Power Industry (Part 1 of 13)
SunEdison’s Place in the Solar Energy Industry
By Saania MalikJul 15, 2015 5:01 pm EDT
History
SunEdison (SUNE), formerly known as MEMC Electronics Materials, was founded in 1984 in Delaware as a silicon wafer manufacturer for the semiconductor industry. In 1995, the company went public. MEMC acquired SunEdison LLC in 2009, and the name change took place in 2013 after the company shifted its focus toward solar energy.






Recent performance
In 2012, solar stocks saw a steep decline and sell-off due to an industry-wide oversupply, which led to falling revenues and lower margins. Most stocks have since recovered. In line with the industry-wide revision of solar stock prices, SunEdison’s stock price rose 623%, going from just over $4.00 in January 2012 to $29.59 as of July 1, 2015.

During the same time frame, industry peer First Solar gained 29%, while the Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN) gained 47%. Interestingly, FirstSolar is the top holding in the Guggenheim Solar ETF, making up more than 8% whereas SunEdison makes up just over 4%.

Overview: business activities
SunEdison develops and sells photovoltaic energy solutions. It also develops, manufactures, and sells silicon wafers to the semiconductor industry. The company also owns and operates clean power generation assets.

The company’s primary business activities are divided into its three segments: the Solar Energy segment, the Semiconductor Materials segment operated under the publicly subsidiary SunEdison Semiconductor Ltd. (SEMI), and TerraForm Power operated as a yieldco under Terraform Power (TERP). To find out more about these segments, read on to the next part of the series.

Key competitors
SunEdison’s key competitors in the solar energy business include renewable energy providers NRG Energy (NRG), NextEra Energy (NEE), SunPower (SPWR), First Solar (FSLR), Solar City (SCTY) in the US and Enel Energia, E.On, and JUWI Solar in Europe. Because SunEdison produces energy from its own projects, it competes directly with renewable energy production of large utilities like NRG Energy and NextEra Energy. These two companies, along with SunPower and First Solar, all have launched their own yieldcos, or have plans to do so in the near term.

Key competitors of the semi-conductor business include established manufacturers Shin-Etsu Handotai, SUMCO, Siltronic, and LG Siltronic. Each of these competitors is based outside the US.

Despite a steep climb in its stock price, SunEdison’s earnings have been either very low or negative since 2009. In subsequent parts of this series, we will address the causes of the company’s suffering profitability, as well as its potential for future turnaround.


PART 2
Overview of SunEdison—An Outperformer in the Solar Power Industry (Part 2 of 13)
Understanding SunEdison’s Business Model
By Saania MalikJul 15, 2015 5:03 pm EDT
Revenue generation model
SunEdison’s (SUNE) business model is divided into three revenue segments: Solar Energy, Semiconductor Materials (SEMI), and TerraForm Power (TERP). Combining the products and services in these three segments, the company’s operations span the solar value chain—from polysilicon manufacturing to electricity sales.






SunEdison has a complex corporate structure with publicly traded subsidiaries handling two of the three operating segments. Over 60% of the company’s revenues come from the Solar Energy Segment. The company is currently undergoing restructuring efforts with the newest segment, TerraForm, taking on an increasing share of revenues.






Key customers and geographic reach
SunEdison has a diverse customer base in terms of user types as well as geography. Domestically, key customers of the Solar Energy business include commercial customers (retail chains and real estate property management firms), government customers (federal, state, and municipal), and utilities.

Internationally, the company has extended its geographic outreach to specific countries in Latin America, Europe, Middle East, and Asia, including Chile, Brazil, Italy, Turkey, Japan, and China. Within those countries, the company works with local project developers.

Key customers of the Semiconductor Materials business include notable firms like IBM (IBM), Intel (INTC), Samsung, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. The company has deployed direct sales forces serving customers internationally, including in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and the US.

These three segments are discussed in greater detail in the following parts.


PART 3
Overview of SunEdison—An Outperformer in the Solar Power Industry (Part 3 of 13)
SunEdison’s Solar Energy Business: Sales Mix and Revenues
By Saania MalikJul 15, 2015 5:03 pm EDT
Products and services
SunEdison’s (SUNE) Solar Energy segment is vertically integrated across the solar value chain. The company focuses on interconnecting solar energy systems to the grid. Over 60% of the company’s revenues come from its Solar Energy segment.

The Solar Energy segment engages in the manufacturing, design, installation, financing, monitoring, operation, and maintenance of solar projects.






Segment operations and revenues
In order to support its downstream operations, the segment has manufacturing capabilities for polysilicon, silicon wafers, and solar modules. The company also sells these modules to third parties. Electricity is sold to customers through long-term power purchase agreements, as well as to government entities and utilities through feed-in tariff agreements.

The company’s revenues are dependent on RECs (renewable energy credits) and PBIs (performance-based incentives). These are issued by regulatory bodies and utilities, respectively. RECs are sold to utilities that can offset their renewable energy generation requirements, or they can be sold to investors who sell them to utilities.

Operations and maintenance (O&M) services are also provided to non-SunEdison solar projects. These services consist of project monitoring, data collection, and corrective and preventive maintenance work. Additionally, the company offers portfolio management services to its customers. These services include maintenance of compliance matters and consolidation of financial reports. SunEdison also provides software applications and data analysis to enhance asset performance.

Revenue contribution
Solar Energy segment revenues increased over 30% year-over-year in 2014. The source of its revenue increase in the past year was mostly an increase in sales from energy production, as well as an increase in sales of solar materials.

However, over the past few years, revenues have been volatile due to fluctuations in the average selling price as well as due to business segment restructuring.

  • In 2011 and 2014, segment revenues grew over 30% year-over-year.
  • In 2012, segment revenues saw soft growth of only 2.3%, and in 2013 they fell over 30%.
The decline was mostly due to a shift in focus toward retaining solar projects instead of selling them off. To find out more about this strategic decision, read on to the next part of this series.


PART 4
Overview of SunEdison—An Outperformer in the Solar Power Industry (Part 4 of 13)
SunEdison’s Solar Energy Business: Strategy and Cost Control
By Saania MalikJul 15, 2015 5:04 pm EDT
Segment strategy
SunEdison aims to keep its solar power assets on its balance sheet. This is a two-fold strategy, allowing commercial customers to only pay for the output generated by systems installed on their property, avoiding the extensive upfront payments typically involved with power plants. This also enables customers to counter the price volatility of conventional energy because they can generate electricity in daylight hours, which is also when prices are highest.

Keeping assets on its balance sheet also provides SunEdison with the opportunity to drop the assets to its yieldco, TerraForm (TERP), discussed later in this series.






Restructuring
SunEdison has been through significant restructuring since MEMC’s acquisition of SunEdison LLC. While its strategic aim is to provide a diversified product mix based on industry demand, the company has struggled with profitability during this restructuring.

Despite the strong growth in interconnected solar energy capacity, segment revenues have not followed the same trends, as shown in Part 3 of this series. In addition to volatile revenue, costs have increased significantly over the last few years. So what has been driving these costs and keeping the company from realizing positive earnings


Disclaimer : I understand very little about how these types of maneuvers work, or if this is what happened, but it sounds plausible.
 
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Vivent is very close to a MLM scheme that only happens to be involved in the Solar sector. Basically they have a gigantic mailing list and existing customer base and try to bundle together /sell every conceivable service related to the home. However, if you check out the BBB website, it's clear they use loads of subcontractors and questionable contracts to acquire and hold onto customers. Also, there

Basically everything that has to do with the home. Home security, TV, Internet, and Energy,

Sunedison and Terraform buying Vivent Solar was probably not a good idea, unless the objective was to get them out of the market so Sunedison could be acquired.

Disclaimer : I don't know anything about how these types of maneuvers work, or if this is what happened, but it sounds plausible.
Thanks! Someone posted a link to powur the other day. Impressive sales videos - for what smelled to me like a MLM scheme based on climbing over subordinate people making a few hundred bucks for sales leads to SolarCity. Higher bonuses for more underlings and leads. Holiday Magic all polished up! :p
 
Thanks! Someone posted a link to powur the other day. Impressive sales videos - for what smelled to me like a MLM scheme based on climbing over subordinate people making a few hundred bucks for sales leads to SolarCity. Higher bonuses for more underlings and leads. Holiday Magic all polished up! :p

VSLR acquired most of its customers from its existing customer base and door to door sales. VSLR doesn't have much if any technology advantage nor does it appear to have a credible accounting strategy.

SolarCity is a vertically integrated technology company, that relies on word of mouth advertising, along with sales people to grow. SolarCity has partnered with Tesla Motors, SpaceX, Nest (Google), Home Depot, the DOD, Walmart and many others. Additionally, SolarCity has acquired companies with real value. The acquisitions were conditioned on time, quality, and other factors. Also, SolarCity has access to an almost unlimited capital due to Elon Musk, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Google, not to mention Sergei Brin and Larry Page.
 
Vivent is very close to a MLM scheme that only happens to be involved in the Solar sector. Basically they have a gigantic mailing list and existing customer base and try to bundle together /sell every conceivable service related to the home. However, if you check out the BBB website, it's clear they use loads of subcontractors and questionable contracts to acquire and hold onto customers.

There's no shortcut to sustainable success in the PPA world. Operations like this want to have it both ways, outsource all the work effort AND maintain top notch quality. The model itself breeds horrible service, there's no way around it.

You MUST keep everything in-house, that's why SCTY's lead in the industry will be so valuable in 2-4 years when it's near scale nationwide. You can't walk into an industry and show a record of 10 years of unwavering service, you have to earn those years and it sounds like everyone other than SCTY is going to get shaken out this year.

Solar will obviously continue to grow.
Cost will continue to drop.
The PPA model will continue to appeal to 40-60% of solar customers.
SCTY may very well be the only top quality nationwide PPA option soon.

:)
 
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