SolarCity (SCTY)

[Johan]

With Elon looking to expand high speed internet access globally(through spacex), a solar home in the backwoods of the Nepali Himalayans could make an electricity payment to Solarcity as easy as a family in Santa Monica California. As well as buy and sell production credits to reduce costs and/or make money. We are at the beginning of some very transformative stuff.

Only thing I'm not quite yet grasping is how that transaction (of credits/cryptocurrency) is related to the actual kWh produced/sold or bought unless there is a physical connection that can distribute the energy. I get that you don't mean literally that the family in Nepal sells a kWh to the family in the US. You mean there will be trading within microgrids? And that with time we will see greater and greater interconnectivity between microgrids forming macrogrids if you will, with decentralized production? In in the limiting case you have a kind of global internet for energy, just as we do now for information? If so I can also clearly see how storage catalyzes this transformation and enables it to a large extent (since the distances between the parts of the earth where there's day vs. night are to big for there to be any feasible way of transferring electricity thus trading it directly).

 

[Foghat]

Only thing I'm not quite yet grasping is how that transaction (of credits/cryptocurrency) is related to the actual kWh produced/sold or bought unless there is a physical connection that can distribute the energy. I get that you don't mean literally that the family in Nepal sells a kWh to the family in the US. You mean there will be trading within microgrids? And that with time we will see greater and greater interconnectivity between microgrids forming macrogrids if you will, with decentralized production? In in the limiting case you have a kind of global internet for energy, just as we do now for information? If so I can also clearly see how storage catalyzes this transformation and enables it to a large extent (since the distances between the parts of the earth where there's day vs. night are to big for there to be any feasible way of transferring electricity thus trading it directly).

Micro grids is one way to transmit the value of that energy, but also that value can be converted into something else that can be globally distributed such as radio signals, light, etc. over the SpaceX satellite constellation. What value to global markets can this capability bring? This is what I mean by credits because Solarcity could be using that produced energy in this way and offering credits as a result.

Example, could it be possible to make a phone call in Santa Monica using a signal created from energy made at Solarcity solar home in the Nepalese himilayans? Or turn on your house lights using a signal created in Nepal? Outsource anything that uses a signal, anything that will utilize spacex satellite constellation. What costs savings can this bring domestically by having access to global distributed energy like this? What about companies like Netflix, Hulu, apple, Google...? Big, big possibilities.

 

[Johan]

Micro grids is one way to transmit the value of that energy, but also that value can be converted into something else that can be globally distributed such as radio signals, light, etc. over the SpaceX satellite constellation. What value to global markets can this capability bring? This is what I mean by credits because Solarcity could be using that produced energy in this way and offering credits as a result.

Example, could it be possible to make a phone call in Santa Monica using a signal created from energy made at Solarcity solar home in the Nepalese himilayans? Or turn on your house lights using a signal created in Nepal? Outsource anything that uses a signal, anything that will utilize spacex satellite constellation. What costs savings can this bring domestically by having access to global distributed energy like this?

OK this one I have to think of a little more. I'm not sure what you mean by "signal" here. Surely you're not suggesting that actual large quantities of electrical energy (electricity) gets transferred across large distances wirelessly using a web of satellites? "Beaming" the electricity from one place to another, in the form of a radio signal or [I assume you mean visible] light (both the same, basically its just electromagnetic radiation with different wave lengths) makes no sense. With solar PV you take sunlight, refine it in to electrical potential that can be used for a wide range of things (hence we have converted energy in to a, for us, more valuable form of energy than EM radiation in the visible spectrum). It would make little sense to convert the electricity generated back to any wavelength of EM radiation again in order just to distribute it around the world. Then it would have to be reconverted again in to electricity at the receiver site, presumably by a PV panel of some kind. Sounds very lossy to me.

 

[Foghat]

OK this one I have to think of a little more. I'm not sure what you mean by "signal" here. Surely you're not suggesting that actual large quantities of electrical energy (electricity) gets transferred across large distances wirelessly using a web of satellites? "Beaming" the electricity from one place to another, in the form of a radio signal or [I assume you mean visible] light (both the same, basically its just electromagnetic radiation with different wave lengths) makes no sense. With solar PV you take sunlight, refine it in to electrical potential that can be used for a wide range of things (hence we have converted energy in to a, for us, more valuable form of energy than EM radiation in the visible spectrum). It would make little sense to convert the electricity generated back to any wavelength of EM radiation again in order just to distribute it around the world. Then it would have to be reconverted again in to electricity at the receiver site, presumably by a PV panel of some kind. Sounds very lossy to me.

each install already has a modem to make digital payment. Signals are already transmitted back and forth. Energy not self consumed is stored on battery. That battery energy can be used to send data/info via communications device on site. Interesting thing is can this be commercialized globally? If so, solarcity(spacex,Elon et al) are positioning themselves to really take advantage.

this is a little further out there, but, is it possible for directed signals (such as those coming from spacex satellites) excite electrons in a tesla Powerwall/power pack? If this is possible, then it is also possible to distribute energy from around the world this way as well...

 

[jhm]

The interest to borrow SCTY shares for shorting has reached a ridiculous level of 48%

View attachment 93039

I remember the good old days when for TSLA it reached 48% range in early 2013. Then one positive tweet by Musk set off a scramble to cover, the stock zoomed like a rocket and never returned back.

Similarly, I firmly believe SCTY is compressed to an artificially low price. Any reasonable valuation will put it it at $100+ right today. We just need an ignition event, thats it, this thing will zoom like crazy.

Wow, that is crazy. The thing to do is just keep buying shares. Time is on the side of shareholders. Shorts will pay through the nose just to buy time. Eventually they give up or run out of cash to pay interest.

- - - Updated - - -

each install already has a modem to make digital payment. Signals are already transmitted back and forth. Energy not self consumed is stored on battery. That battery energy can be used to send data/info via communications device on site. Interesting thing is can this be commercialized globally? If so, solarcity(spacex,Elon et al) are positioning themselves to really take advantage.

this is a little further out there, but, is it possible for directed signals (such as those coming from spacex satellites) excite electrons in a tesla Powerwall/power pack? If this is possible, then it is also possible to distribute energy from around the world this way as well...

Are you talking about transmitting power wirelessly a la Nikola Tesla's dream, or just sending wireless signals as point of sale authentication scheme for power to be obtained from ordinary electrical devices?

 

[Foghat]

Wow, that is crazy. The thing to do is just keep buying shares. Time is on the side of shareholders. Shorts will pay through the nose just to buy time. Eventually they give up or run out of cash to pay interest.

- - - Updated - - -



Are you talking about transmitting power wirelessly a la Nikola Tesla's dream, or just sending wireless signals as point of sale authentication scheme for power to be obtained from ordinary electrical devices?

Forget batteries, phones could soon be charged by WI-FI | Daily Mail Online

'We also demonstrate the feasibility of wirelessly recharging nickel–metal hydride and lithium-ion coin cell batteries.'

Something like this...

 

[SBenson]

Wow, that is crazy. The thing to do is just keep buying shares. Time is on the side of shareholders. Shorts will pay through the nose just to buy time. Eventually they give up or run out of cash to pay interest.

Yes, indeed. Shorting SCTY is a crowded trade. Even worse, it's crowded on the wrong side.

Here is the scenario:

Short PoV: Negative EPS, even worse growing negative EPS, import tariffs, ITC reduction, net-metering battles.

Long PoV: Solid net-retained-value, even better solidly growing net-retained-value, confidence in management to lower costs to overcome tariffs and ITC reduction (panel factory for example), confidence in overcoming net-metering battles one way or other, international expansion, product expansion (recent commercial, storage, micro-grids).

The battle lines are drawn. You are in one camp or the other. There is no in between (I don't know of any longs who look at EPS).

The shorts really have to ask themselves - who is going to sell now?? Longs won't. Shorts can't.

In a traditional high short-interest scenario, shorts expect that the company will show surprising losses, shares will fall, they cover. Now in SCTY case, even if EPS goes further negative, no long is going to fizzle, because they simply don't care about it (it's just a wrong thing to look at).

To make matters worse for shorts, all longs believe that the stock is insanely under-valued. Then why would we sell now or worse at an even lower price? Look at this thread, when the stock fell into 30's, everyone is buying hand over fist. Even Musk did it himself. This locks up the shares even further.

Unless there is some huge macro event and everyone is exiting everything, I can't see why SCTY will fall much lower from here. Longs won't sell. Shorts can't short any further than they already did.

Ultimately shorts would have to cover here or cover later at much higher prices. There really is no profitable exit for them (from here on).

 

[jhm]

Yes, indeed. Shorting SCTY is a crowded trade. Even worse, it's crowded on the wrong side.

Here is the scenario:

Short PoV: Negative EPS, even worse growing negative EPS, import tariffs, ITC reduction, net-metering battles.

Long PoV: Solid net-retained-value, even better solidly growing net-retained-value, confidence in management to lower costs to overcome tariffs and ITC reduction (panel factory for example), confidence in overcoming net-metering battles one way or other, international expansion, product expansion (recent commercial, storage, micro-grids).

The battle lines are drawn. You are in one camp or the other. There is no in between (I don't know of any longs who look at EPS).

The shorts really have to ask themselves - who is going to sell now?? Longs won't. Shorts can't.

In a traditional high short-interest scenario, shorts expect that the company will show surprising losses, shares will fall, they cover. Now in SCTY case, even if EPS goes further negative, no long is going to fizzle, because they simply don't care about it (it's just a wrong thing to look at).

To make matters worse for shorts, all longs believe that the stock is insanely under-valued. Then why would we sell now or worse at an even lower price? Look at this thread, when the stock fell into 30's, everyone is buying hand over fist. Even Musk did it himself. This locks up the shares even further.

Unless there is some huge macro event and everyone is exiting everything, I can't see why SCTY will fall much lower from here. Longs won't sell. Shorts can't short any further than they already did.

Ultimately shorts would have to cover here or cover later at much higher prices. There really is no profitable exit for them (from here on).

Shorts should be going after utilities like Hawaiian Electric Company, which recently had its bonds down rated. Another little surprise that short may not see coming is that the sun shines brightest in Q3. There is a fair chance that SolarCity will post positive earning in Q3 owing to solar electricity sales. But don't tell them about it. Let's keep that our little secret so they can enjoy the surprise.

The funny thing about EPS is it has the wrong denominator for this business model. It is much better to look at net loss to equity per Watt installed. Depending on the tilt of the earth, it ranges from a loss of 14 c/W to gain of 14c/W. This is pretty amazing considering that they spend about $2.91/W installed and collect small payments over a 20 to 30 time horizon with NPV about $1.10/W. It is important to denominated the earning by Watt installed, rather than by shares outstanding, because installation drives their whole business. The more they install, the more their short term losses. It is a business where most revenue is deferred but overhead expenses are not. They've got a healthy gross margin, about 42%, but SG&A and R&D do not get deferred to match revenue recognition. So SG&A is about 77c/W, which is much bigger than the net loss to equity of 12 c/W they saw last quarter. Surely some portion of that is cost that varies directly with sales though GAAP does not allow this to be deferred. Sales alone was 53 c/W and most sales expenses are directly tied to how many MW is booked and deployed in a quarter. So the business really is creating incremental value each quarter.

It is a confusing business model that leads to bad looking conventional metrics, but investors that take the time to understand the business model will ultimately be vindicated. The cash flow from the PowerCo will continue to grow and may become a powerful dividend engine, but as long as the DevCo is growing faster than say 30% per year the income statement will be ugly. So for the next 20 years this could be an undervalued company that grows at an extraordinary rate. So the basic thing to do is to keep accumuling shares year after year. Eventually, it will pay massive dividends.

Currently NRV per share is about $32. In principle, the PowerCo could payout about 5% of this in annual dividends. Presently, about $1.60/share or 3.2% yield on a $50 share. But the reason why they are not paying such a dividend is because they have the opportunity to reinvest it in a business that is growing NRV by about 80 to 90 percent per year. So that dividend potential could grow to $2.90 in 12 months and $5.20 in year another year. So the longer the DevCo can drive extraordinary growth, the larger the future dividend stream from the PowerCo. When I retire in 10 to 20 years, I'll be happy to collect those dividends, but now is not the time for dividend or conventional profits. Now is the time for growth.

 

[Johan]

With this short interest data and for the reasons eloquently expressed by SBenson I'm looking at Apr16 $75 calls at $1.83 as a potential bargain to get good exposure to a possible squeeze. My main concern would be (as always with options) timing (there's no difference between the wrong move all together and the right move but being off in timing when you're dealing with options). Another concern would be relatively low liquidity (only 198 open contracts and a rather big buy-ask spread of $1.65 - $2.24). Anyone have some thoughts on this?

The Jan17$75 calls traded last at $4.68.

(I'm not in a position now to sell puts, only buy calls).

 

[Johan]

Now this is a very interesting real-life example of how desperate the utilities are getting due to generation glut, and how skewed the landscape is due to the way regulation both limits the profit margins of utilities but at the same time favors very unnatural and counterintuitive business practices:

Pay me to use power? Really?

I met someone who works for the local electric power company at a dinner last eveing. When I mentioned owning an electric car she mentioned her company’s two tiered system.

I knew they had such a system but another person I spoke with on the phone right after buying the car in April talked me out of it.

The lady last eveing acknowledged there are better systems in other states but suggested I at least consider it and then pointed me to this file (with an incredibly long URL):
https://www.rockymountainpower.net/c...perimental.pdf

Or if that does not work try:
http://tinyurl.com/q7we8wq

The downside I noticed right away is that the two tier system is only available May through Saptember.

But then she pointed to the rates they charge during that period. Power consumed during peak hours of 1300 to 2000 is 4.3560¢ per kWh.

That’s pretty cheap but then she pointed to the off peak rate of (1.6334)¢ per kWh. When I asked about the parenthesis she said it’s a credit. What?! Not only cheap but they are in effect paying me to use power off peak.

That just seems crazy.

Of course the offices are closed until Tuesday so I can’t confirm so I thought I’d post here to see if that could possibly be true, here or anywhere else.

True?

 

[SBenson]

With this short interest data and for the reasons eloquently expressed by SBenson I'm looking at Apr16 $75 calls at $1.83 as a potential bargain to get good exposure to a possible squeeze. My main concern would be (as always with options) timing (there's no difference between the wrong move all together and the right move but being off in timing when you're dealing with options). Another concern would be relatively low liquidity (only 198 open contracts and a rather big buy-ask spread of $1.65 - $2.24). Anyone have some thoughts on this?

The Jan17$75 calls traded last at $4.68.

(I'm not in a position now to sell puts, only buy calls).

I am no expert in timing. But these are my thoughts:

- As I remember now, TSLA margin rate went into 70's (or even 80's) in early 2013. So it's possible for the margin rates to go up further in SCTY. So we have sometime for the squeeze.

- Lyndon is certainly very annoyed with all this shorting. The best thing he can do is pre-release Q3 installations number and/or give 2016 guidance.
They did something like this for Q3 2013, while they were negotiating pricing of the secondary offering. Stock zoomed up 23% on that day - Oct 11, 2013.
Obviously for the pre-release we need to wait till end of the quarter and then some.

- On a separate note, Model X will be revealed (hopefully) on Sep 29. Then in a few days Tesla Q3 deliveries will be released. TSLA IV is not going up as much as it should for these end of the quarter numbers. I guess the geeks didn't get to code up the end of the quarter scenario for TSLA yet.

- Putting it all together:
-- Buy some Oct 9 calls for TSLA before Sep 29th. Closer to the date better to avoid all this macro volatility.
-- Once that is done in early Oct, roll into SCTY Dec 18 calls.
Dec is the max I would go because I believe Q3 results and 2016 guidance is the best trigger for short squeeze.

I could be all wrong (none of us have a crystal ball ). But this is how I am thinking.

 

[Johan]

I am no expert in timing. But these are my thoughts:

- As I remember now, TSLA margin rate went into 70's (or even 80's) in early 2013. So it's possible for the margin rates to go up further in SCTY. So we have sometime for the squeeze.

- Lyndon is certainly very annoyed with all this shorting. The best thing he can do is pre-release Q3 installations number and/or give 2016 guidance.
They did something like this for Q3 2013, while they were negotiating pricing of the secondary offering. Stock zoomed up 23% on that day - Oct 11, 2013.
Obviously for the pre-release we need to wait till end of the quarter and then some.

- On a separate note, Model X will be revealed (hopefully) on Sep 29. Then in a few days Tesla Q3 deliveries will be released. TSLA IV is not going up as much as it should for these end of the quarter numbers. I guess the geeks didn't get to code up the end of the quarter scenario for TSLA yet.

- Putting it all together:
-- Buy some Oct 9 calls for TSLA before Sep 29th. Closer to the date better to avoid all this macro volatility.
-- Once that is done in early Oct, roll into SCTY Dec 18 calls.
Dec is the max I would go because I believe Q3 results and 2016 guidance is the best trigger for short squeeze.

I could be all wrong (none of us have a crystal ball ). But this is how I am thinking.

Thanks for your thoughts.

For sure I won't play the short term game with TSLA. The days of easy money in TSLA calls are over.

With SCTY you have a point and I'll likely divide my purchases between Dec15 and Apr16 expiries. Good thinking that pre announcement would have to wait until late September or beginning of October. You just don't want to wait too long to buy and miss it (get too greedy that is).

 

[jhm]

I would recommend not trying to time a short squeeze. IV on near term call options is very high. Buy shares puts direct pressure on shorts and does not require precise timing. Buying longterm LEAPS and rolling them can provide leverage for a longterm investment. If you do want to play short term options writing puts would be more advantageous from an IV perspective than buying calls.

I do believe that shorts have suppressed the price below equilibrium, but this does not mean that you can count on a massive short sqeeze in any time frame. There is a possibility that the stock will continue to trade sideways for another year. If that happens, near term call options lose value rapidly. But if you write near term puts, you will be happy to see those loose time value as well. Holding shares will enable you to hold out in a flat market. It is a war of attrition with shorts. The investors who can hold out the longest will win.

BTW, one reason why I would like SolarCity to announce a dividend policy is that it forces shorts to pay dividends to shareholders. They can base it on the cash that the PowerCo generates, and as the DevCo mutiplies PowerCo holding, it multiplies the burden of shorting SolarCity. I think just announcing a dividend policy tied to PowerCo available cash, say some fixed percent pay out of available cash, would shut down the shorts.

 

[blakegallagher]

With this short interest data and for the reasons eloquently expressed by SBenson I'm looking at Apr16 $75 calls at $1.83 as a potential bargain to get good exposure to a possible squeeze. My main concern would be (as always with options) timing (there's no difference between the wrong move all together and the right move but being off in timing when you're dealing with options). Another concern would be relatively low liquidity (only 198 open contracts and a rather big buy-ask spread of $1.65 - $2.24). Anyone have some thoughts on this?

The Jan17$75 calls traded last at $4.68.

(I'm not in a position now to sell puts, only buy calls).

I have some calls very near to the April ones you mentioned and I split my buy between jan 2017 calls at around 85 strike I think, Also have quite a few at 140 in case we get the fireworks I think we could

 

[SBenson]

I would recommend not trying to time a short squeeze. IV on near term call options is very high. Buy shares puts direct pressure on shorts and does not require precise timing. Buying longterm LEAPS and rolling them can provide leverage for a longterm investment. If you do want to play short term options writing puts would be more advantageous from an IV perspective than buying calls.

I do believe that shorts have suppressed the price below equilibrium, but this does not mean that you can count on a massive short sqeeze in any time frame. There is a possibility that the stock will continue to trade sideways for another year. If that happens, near term call options lose value rapidly. But if you write near term puts, you will be happy to see those loose time value as well. Holding shares will enable you to hold out in a flat market. It is a war of attrition with shorts. The investors who can hold out the longest will win.

Jhm, Appreciate the caution.

When people are shorting at such high margin rates, they are essentially betting on an imminent business failure - shutdown of operations, bankruptcy, stuff like that. We know that SolarCity is not anywhere close to that. Just last week they announced another $400mil fund to finance projects. On top of that Lyndon asserted on CNBC that business is doing phenomenally well. So what is that which is encouraging so many shorts?? It's puzzling.

One potential negative event is Fed raising rates. SolarCity is negatively exposed to interest rates. They can't pass on the higher rates to consumers because ultimately they are limited by utility rates... A lot of people are expecting that when Fed raises rates there will be a sudden drop in stocks in general. I think shorts are expecting SCTY to fall harder. And thus positioning themselves accordingly.

If this were to happen, the best way to capitalize this event is by buying more stock (this ties into your point of fighting shorts by buying more stock). For my part I am placing a GTC Limit Buy order to buy at $35.

My broker (IB) lends out my shares on my behalf and pays me a small fee for letting them do that. I am going to pull the plug on that at the right moment. I know my position is tiny compared to daily volumes but will contribute with what I can.

If you guys want to fight the shorts you should figure out how you can stop your broker from lending out your shares. Apparently some brokers do it behind the scenes without your explicit consent. Some people believe if you place a limit-sell order (even, say at $200, which is unlikely to trigger) apparently the broker will be reluctant to lend out. This is worth figuring it out.

Having said that, IF margin rates were to creep up to 70's or 80's, based on timing, there will be some very good opportunity to make big returns on calls. Of course this strategy should only be limited to play money. At that margin rate, the stock will have to move big time one direction or the other. If there is no big drop pretty soon, there will be a sudden scramble to cover which will cause a steep run up.

So there maybe a way to capitalize both ways.

 

[Johan]

I agree with the need not to bet heavily in call options. Writing puts would be better, I agree, but for me personally this is difficult as I would have to have a large cash position with my US broker to cover that position (no margin for foreigners apparently).

I was looking at nothing more near term than April2016 since a shorter perspective than that is more gambling than trading. And of course I would have to be willing to cut my losses should the stock trade sideways for the rest of the year. I was trying to get a feel for how you guys feel about the pricing on the Apr16$75 calls I described above. Good value? "Expensive"?

After all the stock ATH was $75 in 2014 with much less data, customers, outlook or guidance to support it. The high short interest comes on top of that as well.

 

[Foghat]

Japan Space Agency Advances in Space-Based Solar Power - Japan Real Time - WSJ

"According to a spokesman at the agency, the researchers were able to transform 1.8 kilowatts of electric power into microwaves and transmit it with accuracy into a receiver located 55 meters away. The microwave was successfully converted into direct electrical current at the receiving end."

Elon Musk Admits Satellite Internet Plan Could 'Over-Extend' SpaceX | Motherboard

"Musk said he’s optimistic about the future of satellite internet. “I think the long-term potential of it is pretty great,” he said, and noted that Space X’s “communications technology will be substantially more advanced” than previous satellite internet endeavors."

I'm feeling Elon is putting up more then global high speed internet up in those 4000 satellites soon. I feel Solarcity will put together a demonstration project for distributed energy "distribution" network over satellite retransmission globally... Essentially PV systems all around the world will collect solar energy and store it on powerwall/powerpack systems. Consumers will sell this energy on the market through a microwave power transmission network(through the spacex satellite constellation). Those that are buying energy will receive directed microwaves to their receiver, then that energy will converted to DC and stored on their powerwall/powerpack. The size of he distribution network could provide gigawatts of energy around the world delivered to where it is needed, so no need for a massive receiver (as the Japanese study suggests). Something in this type of arena is currently happening on Reunion island off of Madagascar, so not too far off concept.

As one could extrapolate(highly spec), Spacex could establish Mars' first indusrty as energy production and transmission to spacex satellite distribution network for earth consumption. In this way, Mars investment now could translate into real dollars here on earth later.

update:
solarcity could integrate the "rectennas" into their silevo solar panels, so could take advantage of production scale of traditional panels.

Also, the solar Bitcoin currency system could be extended to Mars residents as well which would integrate into our terrestrial financial system for sale/payments.

 

[winfield100]

Japan Space Agency Advances in Space-Based Solar Power - Japan Real Time - WSJ

"According to a spokesman at the agency, the researchers were able to transform 1.8 kilowatts of electric power into microwaves and transmit it with accuracy into a receiver located 55 meters away. The microwave was successfully converted into direct electrical current at the receiving end."

Elon Musk Admits Satellite Internet Plan Could 'Over-Extend' SpaceX | Motherboard

"Musk said he’s optimistic about the future of satellite internet. “I think the long-term potential of it is pretty great,” he said, and noted that Space X’s “communications technology will be substantially more advanced” than previous satellite internet endeavors."As one could extrapolate(highly spec), Spacex could establish Mars'

It would be more efficient to estrablish them on/near Mercury. much higher solar insolation. stories have been written about this for years in the ESSEFF literature. also ground based lasers for spaceship engines so you can boost at 1g and decelerate ar 1 g to Mars etc. 5 days or so.

- - - Updated - - -

anyone read the MIT study that seems to have a thesis of Utility grade PV good/cheap, Rooftop solar/distributed solar PV bad/expensive? (no storage)
https://mitei.mit.edu/system/files/MIT%20Future%20of%20Solar%20Energy%20Study_compressed.pdf
(its about 350+ pages of turgid prose)

 

[Johan]

Japan Space Agency Advances in Space-Based Solar Power - Japan Real Time - WSJ

"According to a spokesman at the agency, the researchers were able to transform 1.8 kilowatts of electric power into microwaves and transmit it with accuracy into a receiver located 55 meters away. The microwave was successfully converted into direct electrical current at the receiving end."

Elon Musk Admits Satellite Internet Plan Could 'Over-Extend' SpaceX | Motherboard

"Musk said he’s optimistic about the future of satellite internet. “I think the long-term potential of it is pretty great,” he said, and noted that Space X’s “communications technology will be substantially more advanced” than previous satellite internet endeavors."

I'm feeling Elon is putting up more then global high speed internet up in those 4000 satellites soon. I feel Solarcity will put together a demonstration project for distributed energy "distribution" network over satellite retransmission globally... Essentially PV systems all around the world will collect solar energy and store it on powerwall/powerpack systems. Consumers will sell this energy on the market through a microwave power transmission network(through the spacex satellite constellation). Those that are buying energy will receive directed microwaves to their receiver, then that energy will converted to DC and stored on their powerwall/powerpack. The size of he distribution network could provide gigawatts of energy around the world delivered to where it is needed, so no need for a massive receiver (as the Japanese study suggests). Something in this type of arena is currently happening on Reunion island off of Madagascar, so not too far off concept.

As one could extrapolate(highly spec), Spacex could establish Mars' first indusrty as energy production and transmission to spacex satellite distribution network for earth consumption. In this way, Mars investment now could translate into real dollars here on earth later.

update:
solarcity could integrate the "rectennas" into their silevo solar panels, so could take advantage of production scale of traditional panels.

Also, the solar Bitcoin currency system could be extended to Mars residents as well which would integrate into our terrestrial financial system for sale/payments.

Love your enthusiasm but I don't think any of this is remotely plausible. Even with 4000 satellites you won't be able to beam around a lot of energy without some very difficult engineering and safety issues to solve first. And producing energy on Mars and then beaming it to earth? I don't mean to be rude but do you have any idea how far away Mars is, even at the point of Earth's and Mars' solar orbits being the closest together? I'm sorry, that is just not going to happen. Ever.

Look, the sun provides plenty of radiating energy hitting the earth all the time, allbeit not 24 hours a day. This is where storage comes in. Storage is and will be the solution, a much safter, more economical and realistic one.

 

[Lessmog]

Must say I agree with Johan, you seem to be too far out.
Maybe remove the fog hat and enjoy the sun shine? :wink: