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SolarCity (SCTY)

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Well it is when someone is trying to make a point that SolarCity is an evil company out to sell an inferior product.

I do think ~$5/watt is expensive, but I haven't seen someone else offer the 30 year loan and 30 year warranty. In California, for most people, this makes it cheaper per month to own solar than continuing to buy power from the utility.

SolarCity sells a service, not a product per se. The naysayers have a hard time seeing this distinction (not referring to you jjkroll). I bet SolarCity's management heard of all these arguments as to why the model won't work since inception. We have mounting evidence quarter after quarter that more and more people are choosing SolarCity - increase in installs, increase in market share. But electracity and other folk spin the same old argument that the market of ignorant people will dry up. I have personally seen this argument since more than 2 years ago. They have been woefully wrong all along but never admit. Keep throwing the same sh!t at the wall, hoping one day it will stick.

Here is an interesting development. SolarCity is planning to go big into commerical installations aimed at small businesses. We can hopefully agree that small business owners are lot more savvy with money matters than an average household of 4 with cushy desk jobs. Now SolarCity claims in the CC that "The economics to SolarCity will be very similar to our residential business with a gross retained value of around $1.90 a watt". Lets see how much this product, err, service sells. If SolarCity makes it big in this space, will bears admit that they mis-understood the model? or will they simply say - well, these small business owners are all uneducated, dumb and stupid. The ignorant-people market is going to dry up!
 
Governor Iges energy future (Full interview) - YouTube

after watching this interview with Hawaii governor David Ige, Solarcity will have a massive market expansion there in short order. He is 100% on board with DER centric grid and is looking for "partners" (Solarcity et al) to achieve this path toward 100% renewable grid. He is completely skipping natural gas in this effort. He also is against the heco merger with Florida based utility(which is all about nat gas investments inhawaii).

With Powerwall installs starting in a few weeks, Hawaii looks primed for big numbers starting in 2016. Hawaii will really be the poster child for the mainland and give credence to planning big time DER integration.

he alluded to all homes having pv, so that is a 520,000+ market if all are available to pv installs, not including community solar for apartments and condos which would probably double the market if implemented.

This is very interesting. Apparently the reporter just doesn't get that converting to LNG is a huge capital investment. This is the sort of thing that loads utility rates with alot of fixed costs that drive a load defection crisis. Moreover HECO has blown its bond rating so it is not in a strong position to make these changes without a merger. So Ige is making the right call, sparing the state from a major LNG boondoggle.

I'd also point out that HECO has tried to push through alot of utility solar projects, but these are meeting with resistance from voters. It is entirely hypocritical for HECO to cap residential solar to plaster the beautiful islands with ugly ground mounted systems. HECO is increasingly out of political favor with residents.

So it is not a surprise the the Governor is looking for a partner who can share a vision for 100% renewable and highly distributed energy.

I do think that SolarCity should bid out a microgrid project. Perhaps they could develop a microgrid solution for the entirety of one of the islands. This would give serious proof of concept.
 
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SolarCity Corp up ~11% in the last five days, has seen a fierce spike in borrowing costs this week. The interest expense to cover short sales is now almost five-times more expensive today than it was just one week ago. Cost conscious subscribers to Jim Chanos’s “subprime financing company” theory may be disappointed to know SolarCity is now at the most expensive borrowing levels year-to-date. Demand to borrow shares is street wide and Prime Brokers are scrambling to scoop up shares, regardless of rate, to avoid closing out their customers’ short positions

This popped up from Interactive Brokers traders insight take that Mr chinos
 
This is very interesting. Apparently the reporter just doesn't get that converting to LNG is a huge capital investment. This is the sort of thing that loads utility rates with alot of fixed costs that drive a load defection crisis. Moreover HECO has blown its bond rating so it is not in a strong position to make these changes without a merger. So Ige is making the right call, sparing the state from a major LNG boondoggle.

I'd also point out that HECO has tried to push through alot of utility solar projects, but these are meeting with resistance from voters. It is entirely hypocritical for HECO to cap residential solar to plaster the beautiful islands with ugly ground mounted systems. HECO is increasingly out of political favor with residents.

So it is not a surprise the the Governor is looking for a partner who can share a vision for 100% renewable and highly distribute energy.


It is interesting to note Governor Ige is an electrical engineer. He was born and raised in Hawaii. One of 6 siblings growing up in Pearl City. He is the true definition of Hawaiian local. I sense from the video is his completely sold on DG integration. That said, I think he has the best intentions for the long term energy success of Hawaii in mind. He also has all the best information, including the R&D studies by NREL and Solarcity happening as I write this. He's knows the grid can handle a lot more DG then the utitlities had previously believed possible. Also, NREL just revealed DG assets are not the same as adding fossil fuel power generating assets, they have completely different characteristics and effects when interconnected to the grid. That means the assumptions/risks associated with effects caused by increases fossil fuel capacity are not the same as adding DG capcity. As such Governor ige is learning first had that traditional Utitlity assumptions about DG do not hold water anymore and must be scraped for new ones. Those new assumptions radically change utitlity rate design as well as future capital expensive requests during rate cases.

again, Solarcity is right there next to governor ige showing him this information. Florida based Nextera is not. Suffice it to say, Solarcity is winning over the governor and that is why we hear Lyndon Rive saying Hawaii is the postcard of the future to the rest of the country. If Solarcity can help develop massive solar(&storage) installs while proving safe, reliable and economic for all residents of Hawaii, there can no longer be a disbute around pro DG policy being fantastic policy nationwide (and in perpetuity).

News article just came out showing gdp rising to record levels in CA while greenhouse gas emissions have flattened out in CA. This is a clear indication the exponential DG growth (and utitliy solar among EE) has not hurt he economy. It has proven to be the opposite. And this is only mounting more evidence in Solarcity's favor for unlocking that infinite market down the road.
 
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SolarCity Corp up ~11% in the last five days, has seen a fierce spike in borrowing costs this week. The interest expense to cover short sales is now almost five-times more expensive today than it was just one week ago. Cost conscious subscribers to Jim Chanos’s “subprime financing company” theory may be disappointed to know SolarCity is now at the most expensive borrowing levels year-to-date. Demand to borrow shares is street wide and Prime Brokers are scrambling to scoop up shares, regardless of rate, to avoid closing out their customers’ short positions

This popped up from Interactive Brokers traders insight take that Mr chinos

I'd be careful about buying options when the cost to borrow shares are high. Such situations can ca use put/call parity to break down. So make sure you look carefully at IV before trading options. When IV on a call equals IV on a put at the same strike and term, you know put/call parity hold. I just checked the option chain and found that IV for near terms is very high and in many cases IV for calls is much higher than for puts. Thus, call buyers are at risk for paying premium. If you want to be long you might consider selling puts instead of buying calls.

On thing that this situation suggests is that the shorts are primarily borrowing shares to short in lieu of holding puts. These shorts can also take advantage of premium IV on calls by selling calls.

So please be careful with buying and holding near term call options. The shorts can very easily turn synthetic short positions in the option market and trash the current call option prices. Sell puts or buy shares.
 
Thanks for heads up since it was replacing my shares the nearest term I have is April of 2016 the others are January 2017.

All of my short term options with Solar City has burnt me hoping for better results with these long term ones

Yeah, I should have pointed out that LEAP are probably okay since the elevation in IV is more of a near term phenomenon. In fact it may be smart to roll to longterm LEAPS, selling high IV and replacing it with low IV.
 
It is interesting to note Governor Ige is an electrical engineer. He was born and raised in Hawaii. One of 6 siblings growing up in Pearl City. He is the true definition of Hawaiian local. I sense from the video is his completely sold on DG integration. That said, I think he has the best intentions for the long term energy success of Hawaii in mind. He also has all the best information, including the R&D studies by NREL and Solarcity happening as I write this. He's knows the grid can handle a lot more DG then the utitlities had previously believed possible. Also, NREL just revealed DG assets are not the same as adding fossil fuel power generating assets, they have completely different characteristics and effects when interconnected to the grid. That means the assumptions/risks associated with effects caused by increases fossil fuel capacity are not the same as adding DG capcity. As such Governor ige is learning first had that traditional Utitlity assumptions about DG do not hold water anymore and must be scraped for new ones. Those new assumptions radically change utitlity rate design as well as future capital expensive requests during rate cases.

again, Solarcity is right there next to governor ige showing him this information. Florida based Nextera is not. Suffice it to say, Solarcity is winning over the governor and that is why we hear Lyndon Rive saying Hawaii is the postcard of the future to the rest of the country. If Solarcity can help develop massive solar(&storage) installs while proving safe, reliable and economic for all residents of Hawaii, there can no longer be a disbute around pro DG policy being fantastic policy nationwide (and in perpetuity).

News article just came out showing gdp rising to record levels in CA while greenhouse gas emissions have flattened out in CA. This is a clear indication the exponential DG growth (and utitliy solar among EE) has not hurt he economy. It has proven to be the opposite. And this is only mounting more evidence in Solarcity's favor for unlocking that infinite market down the road.

Gov. Ige could become one of the most important leaders for the energy transformation. I'm so glad he's got an EE background and is able to think in a total systems way. I think it's taking real courage and leadership to oppose LNG interests.

I do think there are big economic benefits that DG can unleash in Hawaii. Consider how much cash flows out of the Hawaiian economy just to import fuel. Rooftop solar is cheaper. So the solar owner has more discretionary income to spend in the state economy. Also most of the cost of solar is local installation, sales, and other soft costs within the state economy. What actually gets imported is a small component. So this creates more net jobs in the local economy. Next, distributed solar preserves the natural beauty of the state which, in addition to being a positive value for residents, supports tourism. When Hawaii is able to say that it is 100% renewable, this will also be a positive message for tourism. It really is the paradise state. Ige seems pretty concerned about the coats of environmental regulation. Not only is this a burden to industries in the state, a burden passed on tonresidents, but even a burden to the government agencies that must process all the permits and due diligence at a cost to Hawaiian taxpayers. All these layers of regulatory cost are a drag on the state economy. By contrast, the regulatory burdens both public and private, of distributed generation may be far lighter. For example, environmental impact studies and public hearing are required for utility scale installation, but not residential. So this whole transition can be deployed at lower systemwide regulatory cost. Finally, Ige wants Hawaii to be a Research and Development state for renewables. This is not just about solving local problems and showcasing to the world. It is about creating a high tech industry, attracting talent and cultivating businesses that meet compete in global markets. If Hawaii can figure out how to power its islands with 100% renewable, then it will have a lot of export opportunities to take solutions across the planet. So putting all these things together, if Hawaii succeeds in this transformation, its economy will grow and become much more dynamic.

Here's one way Hawaii could pursue going 100% renewable. Allow different companies to collaborate and compete to transform suubstations to 100% renewable energy. A few substaions would be testbeds. A company like SolarCity could be given a special opportunity to take the lead in a couple of test beds. Essentially, the testbed, a substation would work toward becoming a self-sufficient microgrid. It would need to generate, distribute and balance load for all power within the microgrid. There may be opportunities to export and import power with the grid, but this would need to be done in a way that is compatible with the goal of a 100% renewable network of microgrids. So for example, if two renewable microgrids trade power, say one has some wind power and the other some geothermal power, then that sort of trading is entirely compatible with the 100% renwable goal. So these different test beds can try out different approaches and they can trade with each other. Once a few testbeds get to say 98% renwable levels, it should also become clear how to move whole grids to full renewability. Some testbeds will deploy more quickly, other test beds may achieve lower costs, and some may have better reliability than others. But in all that testing, best practices should emerge. Companies that are abke to deliver the best results will win more opportunities to replicate those results. Losers will be weeded out. HECO can be one of the participants, but they will have to innovate at the same levels as SolarCity and others if they want to retain their vertically integrated franchise. Citizens within each substation can vote on whether or not they want their substation to be a test bed. The most willing communities are enrolled in the program first.
 
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Podcast 7.10.15 on Vimeo

Wow. This aired nearly 2 months ago. Solarcity is a sales machine. One person had 14 sales in one day. One person achieved 35 sales from selling just to 2 customers which shows the power of the ambassador program.

The big eye opener for the big increase in sales is Solarcity moving into malls. They've done as much sales from the less then a year in malls then they have of over 3 years at best buy. They anticipate being in over 250 malls by October and every mall in all Solarcity territories by 2016. If this momentum holds with malls(and their overall sales force) we may see more quarterly booking records coming very soon. Like I said before they shutdown the Solarcity Now website, I was tracking them to break the 395MW record from last quarter. This mall strategy could really be the answer to pushing toward 1.6-1.8GW, possibly 1.9GW install guidance for 2016. it might be a long shot, but this guidance might come at q3 call in Novemeber, maybe during the huge global climate summit in France. November will be a big Solarcity month for sure.
 
Just spec, but seeing a lot of solar flags going up around Brazil(net metering, Sunedison plant, Solarcity exec down there right now,etc)... Could Solarcity be eyeing expansion down there soon? A lot people, a lot of sun, a lot of rooftops, a lot of promising policy....?

I'm also feeling Sunedison and Solarcity might be game for a partnership of some sort. Lyndon rive did say Sunedison purchase of Vivint was a good thing for DG policy advancement, so... Again, just spec for thought...

would be kind of a big SCTY catalyst if it materialized...

im also still a believer that as international expansion happens, Solarcity will develop a bitcoin based payment system down the line... a lot of flags in this direction as well. By pass all banks and currencies in global financial transactions would be pretty significant cost saver. Global Cell phone proliferation has been a massive catalyst for this.
 
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How ‘gold-plating’ the Australian electricity grid is killing off coal : Renew Economy

A startling decoupling of grid-supplied electricity and economic growth has occurred in Australia over the past few years.

Since peaking in 2009, electricity demand in the Australian National Electricity Market has fallen by 7.5 percent while Australian GDP has expanded by about 16 percent.

This article covers some of the themes we've discussed here. I'd like to highlight this idea of a national economy growing even as consumption of grid power declines. The decline is largely an ice ease in energy efficiency and rooftop solar. Both are consistent with economic growth. The connection is made even stronger by the fact that for quite some time residential rates had trippled even as wholesale rates declined. (So much for the theory you can lower residential rates buy lowering wholesale. It just doesn't trickle down like that.) Effectively the high cost of retail power is a drag on the economy.

The discussion comments are just as interesting. Note the discussion of economic fuel substitution. Yes, EVs are substituting electricity for gasoline. But note that some Australians with solar are replacing gas appliances with electric. Part of the context here is that utilities have been allowed to set their own feed in tariffs for solar. In some cases the tariffs are as low as AUD 0.05/kWh which is cheaper than natural gas in Australia. So there is a strong incentive to get batteries and to find alternative uses for solar energy. An electric water heater uses about 10 kWh per per day.

So the upshot for a company like SolarCity is to find other uses for electricity and so expand the customer relationship. Right now in the US natural gas is quite cheap, so I don't see solar owners replacing gas water heaters with electric any time soon. But it's worth thinking along these lines, what are really cool things solar owners can do with surplus solar energy? Running clothes dryer or defrosting the refrigerator in lieu of exporting to the grid or charging a home battery may be better uses of surplus solar energy. SolarCity can help customers navigate such solutions.
 
How ‘gold-plating’ the Australian electricity grid is killing off coal : Renew Economy



This article covers some of the themes we've discussed here. I'd like to highlight this idea of a national economy growing even as consumption of grid power declines. The decline is largely an ice ease in energy efficiency and rooftop solar.
a tiny bit of info. total consumption in wind and solar in terawatt hours in Australia (aggreated everything)
200920102011201220132014terawatthours
0.31.02.02.43.84.5 solar
4.45.46.07.79.310.2 wind
 
Foghat, what indications is it you're seeing with regards to SCTY implementing BTC or some similar (their own?) non-fiat, electronic, crypto currency in their global business? I see the value of it as/if they start managing constantly growing and interconnecting micro/decentralized grids where power gets traded back and forth. Bypass the utility completely.
 
The interest to borrow SCTY shares for shorting has reached a ridiculous level of 48%

Screen Shot 2015-09-04 at 12.30.31 PM.png


I remember the good old days when for TSLA it reached 48% range in early 2013. Then one positive tweet by Musk set off a scramble to cover, the stock zoomed like a rocket and never returned back.

Similarly, I firmly believe SCTY is compressed to an artificially low price. Any reasonable valuation will put it it at $100+ right today. We just need an ignition event, thats it, this thing will zoom like crazy.
 
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Foghat, what indications is it you're seeing with regards to SCTY implementing BTC or some similar (their own?) non-fiat, electronic, crypto currency in their global business? I see the value of it as/if they start managing constantly growing and interconnecting micro/decentralized grids where power gets traded back and forth. Bypass the utility completely.

Jervetson, draper, bill lee to name a few are heavily involved in Bitcoin investments. So is Elon. All are investors or board members of Solarcity. Secondly, Solarcity bought a stake in an African solar company(same b model as Solarcity as well)that uses bitpesa/m pesa as payment system in Kenya/Tanzania. Tanzania/Kenyans do something like 98% of financial transactions using M-Pesa digital currency. It's pretty wild how big it is over there... Yet milions of people don't have home electricity to charge their phones. They have to go into town to charge their phones. Solar is cheaper to put on their roof them go into town to charge the phone plus the cost of kerosine to run the home. Home solar is currently seeing a massive adoption rate because of this. Around the world cell phones and digital currency transactions are sky rocketing, yet 1.3 billion people don't have electricity... The home solar market is primed for mega expansion as a result. Just follow where cell phones and digital currency are rapidly growing(mostly emerging markets). Bangladesh now has over 3 million home solar installs, already seeing nearly $100 million in national kerosine savings projected. wild stuff happening right now. Digital currency is actually taking off without the United States so I'm feeling as Solarcity begins to expand beyond the United States, they will start integrating a digital currency payment system that makes sense. I think a solar Bitcoin could be a strong possibility, where consumers can buy and trade kWh production credits around the world as well. Mind blowing the potential to really change the global financial landscape especially from traditionally thought of as third world country markets. solarcity could receive direct payments in real time from far off markets that never existed before in history. Not only could they take traditional global energy market market share, they could also expand the market by 1.3 billion people.
 
Jervetson, draper, bill lee to name a few are heavily involved in Bitcoin investments. So is Elon. All are investors or board members of Solarcity. Secondly, Solarcity bought a stake in an African solar company(same b model as Solarcity as well)that uses bitpesa/m pesa as payment system in Kenya/Tanzania. Tanzania/Kenyans do something like 98% of financial transactions using M-Pesa digital currency. It's pretty wild how big it is over there... Yet milions of people don't have home electricity to charge their phones. They have to go into town to charge their phones. Solar is cheaper to put on their roof them go into town to charge the phone plus the cost of kerosine to run the home. Home solar is currently seeing a massive adoption rate because of this. Around the world cell phones and digital currency transactions are sky rocketing, yet 1.3 billion people don't have electricity... The home solar market is primed for mega expansion as a result. Just follow where cell phones and digital currency are rapidly growing(mostly emerging markets). Bangladesh now has over 3 million home solar installs, already seeing nearly $100 million in national kerosine savings projected. wild stuff happening right now. Digital currency is actually taking off without the United States so I'm feeling as Solarcity begins to expand beyond the United States, they will start integrating a digital currency payment system that makes sense. I think a solar Bitcoin could be a strong possibility, where consumers can buy and trade kWh production credits around the world as well. Mind blowing the potential to really change the global financial landscape especially from traditionally thought of as third world country markets. solarcity could receive direct payments in real time from far off markets that never existed before in history. Not only could they take traditional global energy market market share, they could also expand the market by 1.3 billion people.

Thanks, super interesting stuff. I'll read up on the situation in Kenya, which was not on my radar until now.

The advent of digital currency though has been obvious for a long time (I'm invested though not heavily in BTC) and as you point out there are obvious possible synergies with solar and how it decentralizes production and distribution of energy. Kind of the same way that both solar and cryptocurrencies have clear paths to globalize and democratize the world.

I love it how this might be happening already and the powers that be (economically, politically, with regards to energy distribution and production) are completely oblivious as of yet.
 
Thanks, super interesting stuff. I'll read up on the situation in Kenya, which was not on my radar until now.

The advent of digital currency though has been obvious for a long time (I'm invested though not heavily in BTC) and as you point out there are obvious possible synergies with solar and how it decentralizes production and distribution of energy. Kind of the same way that both solar and cryptocurrencies have clear paths to globalize and democratize the world.

I love it how this might be happening already and the powers that be (economically, politically, with regards to energy distribution and production) are completely oblivious as of yet.

With Elon looking to expand high speed internet access globally(through spacex), a solar home in the backwoods of the Nepali Himalayans could make an electricity payment to Solarcity as easy as a family in Santa Monica California. As well as buy and sell production credits to reduce costs and/or make money. We are at the beginning of some very transformative times.
 
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