Shouldn't the "Gen3" car really have come before the Model X?

[neroden]

Why do so many people keep referring to the Model S and the Model X as $100K cars? That's simply not true in the general usage of the terms: it is possible to configure these cars to reach a $100K price point, but that's like calling a BMW 5-series sedan a $100K car because a tricked-out M5 can go as high as $107K. The reality is that both the 5-series and the Teslas have base pricing in the $50's, and will sell for average pricing in the $60's or $70's.

Not so sure about that. There's been a definite bias towards more-loaded sales with Model S. I'm actually quite price-conscious, and I ended up with an sticker price of $85.6K (which would be 88.1K after the price increase.) I'd expect average pricing to be $80-90K.

I still don't think it's fair to round that up to $100K, which you're only going to reach if you order the Performance. (A *fully loaded* non-Performance, including options which most people have no use for at all, and including impossible-to-use combos such as getting both the parcel shelf and the jumpseats, is $99,500).

These are prices assuming you don't get the tax credit, by the way.

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Personally I couldn't live with the 40kwh car and the 60 would be very limiting. The 85 is just right, and really not enough (Going roundtrip to DC and back is pushing the limit for us). On the east coast, with no superchargers, you're looking at an $80k car with no options. $90k with options. $100k for the top of the line. So, $80-90k car. There is a market, sure. But the market for the $50k car is MUCH bigger.

Reality: Until there are superchargers all over, the car will be a relatively niche product. For Californians, you are seeing a different world than everyone else. You could probably live with a 40kwh car since there are SC's around. On the east coast, you'd be toast unless you used your $60k+ car as solely a commuter or an "around town car."

Last I checked something like half of Tesla's US sales were in California (though this may not be true any more). So the divergence between California (with lots of charging and no cold weather) and elsewhere *does* sound right. I'd be interested to see whether the 40kW and 60kW sales have an even stronger bias towards California right now than the 85kW, but that information isn't available.

 

[strider]

The reason is simple: battery technology isn't quite there yet.

+1. Battery prices need to drop further to make Gen 3 price competitive w/ other cars in that segment. Model S/X are price competitive in their segments now but Gen 3 is going to go up against VWs and Hondas. Battery prices need to drop in order to get there. Model X gives the nerds a few more years to get there.