Well let's register the disagreement. I give more credit to shareholder letters stating what has happened (which must be true otherwise a crime) than managements making predictions (which falls short quite often and don't usually have legal consequences)
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They have pretty good record on margins. Their so-so record on timing is irrelevant here.
EDIT: And just for the record, the shareholder letters did not contain any information that contradict the assumed TE pack cost of $238 / kWh, so I am not sure why you even mentioning it. There are million ways to come up with the CapEx (which IS mentioned in the letters) contribution to the TE cost, and the way you suggest it works is not based on any concrete information. What if depreciation is not 10, but 15 or 20 years? Why do you think that Pana cells include 0 depreciation? Tesla is BUYING these cells from Pana, and we do not know what the price is. Why do you think that there was 0 CapEx involved in re-launching mothballed Pana factories/lines? The list goes on and on...
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I guess these news from Germany do not help SP:
German government report critical of Tesla Autopilot - Spiegel
German government report critical of Tesla Autopilot - Spiegel
That isn't even news. It's snippets of an internal report. The negative spin these days is unbelievable. Us bulls are definitely getting it from the Matador these past couple weeks.
Also it's an optional system it doesn't have to be used, wow this is irritating. In addition, I want to know which version of the software they tested
Hmm. I don't see the German government rushing to bash the far, far, FAR inferior systems found in German cars, e.g. MB. A curious case indeed.
Must be too busy crafting EV incentives that top out right where Tesla's pricing begins.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Interesting.
But there has to be something else, something a lot more substantial as a reason for this drop.
Maybe we missed something?
Edit: New LOD.
There's no news as far as I can tell. I'm assuming the increased short availability made the shorts go nuts. Then the weak longs got spooked, and the short term traders piled in to chase their magical patterns. Just a normal TSLA week.
I think that when shares are widely available for shorting any opportunity to pile on by shorts (like this report from Germany) is being exploited to the fullest.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Funny, company is reporting record deliveries and SP heading south. As far as I can see not very rational. Really watching the next days/weeks to see if there is a hidden black swan out there somewhere
Not sure why this fundamental change (record deliveries) is not moving the needle much, but TSLA does seem to be in a technical downward channel since April, with peak resistances at roughly $265 (April 5th), $235 (July 29) and $215 (Oct 3rd).
We all know that Tesla doesn't actually lose money on each vehicle sold, so the Bears are just spreading FUD as usual to shake out weak longs to fuel their short position. If they don't sell enough vehicles, they don't make enough money to survive and go bankrupt. If they sell too many, they lose money and go bankrupt. It's a stupidly huge contradiction in where TSLA never makes money no matter which scenario plays out, which makes no sense (because it's not true, it's just the Bears will always purposely spin everything negatively to continue the FUD spreading for their manipulative purposes).
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Tesla Announces Release Date for Third Quarter 2016 Financial Results
PALO ALTO, CA -- (Marketwired) -- 10/07/16 -- Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will post its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2016, after market close on Wednesday, October 26, 2016. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory release containing a link to the Q3 2016 Update Letter, available on the TeslaIR website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at 2:30pm Pacific Time(5:30pm Eastern Time) to discuss the Company's financial and business results and outlook.
What: Date of Tesla Q3 2016 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast
When: Wednesday, October 26, 2016
Time: 2:30pm Pacific Time / 5:30pm Eastern Time
Shareholder Letter: http://ir.tesla.com
Webcast: http://ir.tesla.com (live and replay)
Approximately two hours after the Q&A session, an archived version of the webcast will be available on the Company's website.
For additional information, please visit http://ir.tesla.com.
Source: Tesla Motors, Inc.
Interesting. I guess they want the ER out of the way before the Tesla/Solar City announcement on the 28th. Then fueled by these positive news have the merger vote early November.
I don't get it. How is this stock supposed to do well when there's literally a hidden army of shorts with tens/hundreds of millions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of shares available to short it pounding on the SP every day? This is literally legal price manipulation and no one seems to care. I've stopped wondering why TSLA has been trading horizontal for the last three years despite all the gains its made.
A bit earlier than normal, and right before the solar roof event. I'm thinking he wants to stack up some catalysts ASAP and start defending the SP, which is fine by me.
Every ER seems to have a theme. I think this one will be TE. They did the GGF unveiling, are doing significant GGF construction (probably have a better idea of the ramp), announced a few big TE deals and are unveiling a product on the 28th. Everyone and their mother is shorting Tesla and Elon is pissed. If good old profitability isn't good enough then Elon is going to bring out the TE trump card and double down in this ER I think. Guidance, margins and a solid plan for all the GWs coming online. Most analysts are too dumb to do the math here so I think Tesla will spell it out so maybe, just maybe, people will start to understand that Tesla isn't just another automaker.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Based on past ERs I would've expected it in early November.
EDIT: I can't keep up - does this date mean someone has to shave a head, eat a sock, etc.?
Wow did anyone buy October 28th options? Congratulations you're.. now down 20% today instead of 40%. Well, anyway congrats.
Traditionally, the 1st Wednesday in November; it was moved up a day or so in 2012 before election.
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