Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[racer26]

My guess is fiat Chrysler is the first to fall, the CEO is being militantly stubborn on ignoring evs

Could be. Personally, as a guy who's had nothing but Honda and Acura products as my daily drivers since I was 17, I'm a bit concerned by the way Honda seems to be all-in on the FCEVs. Hopefully for them they are able to port that knowledge over to BEVs quickly and compete. I'm planning to buy a Model 3 because I want a compelling electric car, and right now, Tesla is the only one who can provide.

As of right now, I see Nissan, Ford and GM as the furthest along the path to being real competitors in the BEV market. They all have real BEVs you can buy today, and a 200+ mi vehicle in the works. Mercedes, BMW, KIA, and probably a few others have something, but aren't as far along as the first three.

Then there's always the surprise element that could come from Apple or Faraday Future. I suspect one or both will turn out to be vaporware, but you never know. Sounds like they've got lots of capital to throw around.

 

[Dwdnjck]

What is Chrysler's relationship to Ferrari now? I am very optimistic about the future of Ferrari as a brand and car maker.

really? Why?

 

[Johan]

Very interesting for MobilEye to say publicly that Tesla are dropping them as a customer. This has to mean that either (most likely) Tesla are developing their own hardware or (less likely) that they're switching supplier.

 

[koolkool]

The spring is loaded.
I expect quite some short term traders looking at their weekly put positions after yesterday's great trading session knowing about today's TM press conference and more details to emerge till grand opening event of the GigaFactory later this week.
They know that the only thing that's left is hopium, usually not good.
TM already changed our world more than we have expected in less time than we have expected, and there is only more to come.
All the best to everybody who is working on a better future!

TM press conference? Where did I miss this? Can you please post a link?

 

[racer26]

Very interesting for MobilEye to say publicly that Tesla are dropping them as a customer. This has to mean that either (most likely) Tesla are developing their own hardware or (less likely) that they're switching supplier.

You can pretty much safely bet any time one of Elon's companies is dropping a supplier that there's a pretty good chance that means they're going for even more vertical integration.

 

[JBRR]

Mobileye (MBLY) Falls as Tesla (TSLA) Relationship to Come to an End

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Very interesting for MobilEye to say publicly that Tesla are dropping them as a customer. This has to mean that either (most likely) Tesla are developing their own hardware or (less likely) that they're switching supplier.

It seems that the breakup may have been initiated by Mobileye:

Mobileye (MBLY) Falls as Tesla (TSLA) Relationship to Come to an End

UPDATE: Below is the statement the company provided to StreetInsider:

"Mobileye's work with Tesla will not extend beyond the EyeQ3. We continue to support and maintain the current Tesla Autopilot product plans. This includes a significant upgrade of several functions that affect both the ability to respond to crash avoidance and to optimize auto-steering in the near term, without any hardware updates.

Nevertheless, in our view, moving toward more advanced autonomy is a paradigm shift both in terms of function complexity and the need to ensure an extremely high level of safety. There is much at stake here, to Mobileye’s reputation and to the industry at large. Mobileye believes that achieving this objective requires partnerships that go beyond the typical OEM / supplier relationship, such as our recently announced collaboration with BMW and Intel. Mobileye will continue to pursue similar such relationships."

EDIT: I don't think Mobileye likes Tesla writing software for it's hardware.

 

[andrerodpt]

But...

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Gerasimental]

really? Why?

I work in the auto industry and have heard encouraging noises. Can't give specifics as I don't have any (and I wouldn't if I did), but my impression is that Ferrari has a good future. Sorry this is totally OT.

 

[Bgarret]

You can pretty much safely bet any time one of Elon's companies is dropping a supplier that there's a pretty good chance that means they're going for even more vertical integration.

.....and for better, more robust technology. Cameras alone aren't the autonomous drivin solution, they are a patch. I'm not aware Mobileye is exploring any radar/Lidar integration or augmentation, which leaves it stuck at its current level of development. I would guess that some analysts don't realize that MBLY doesn't have any of the 3 million miles/day of data Tesla has been gathering - that will set them back on the 6 Billion mile Musk autonomous yardstick.

Two of the biggest players in Autonomous driving - Tesla and Google - have been the slowest to find a partner for the square dance I think the MBLY-BMW-Intel partnership was driven by the impending Tesla breakup.

 

[Johan]

EDIT: I don't think Mobileye likes Tesla writing software for it's hardware.

Probably a very good analysis. And the fact that BMW may try to get a leg up on Tesla by offering Mobileye some very good terms with the condition of dropping Tesla.

 

[andrerodpt]

.....and for better, more robust technology. Cameras alone aren't the autonomous drivin solution, they are a patch. I'm not aware Mobileye is exploring any radar/Lidar integration or augmentation, which leaves it stuck at its current level of development. I would guess that some analysts don't realize that MBLY doesn't have any of the 3 million miles/day of data Tesla has been gathering - that will set them back on the 6 Billion mile Musk autonomous yardstick.

Two of the biggest players in Autonomous driving - Tesla and Google - have been the slowest to find a partner for the square dance I think the MBLY-BMW-Intel partnership was driven by the impending Tesla breakup.

Well... they sure can dance together, no? Imagine Tesla & Google expertise (and money) together.

 

[Johan]

The mindset of Elon here is: Let's get autonomous driving working and in general use as soon as possible, in absolute terms.

The mindset of everyone else is: We don't care when, in absolute terms, autonomous vehicles become a reality as long as we are ahead of our competitors.

This difference is quite fundamental, if you think about it.

 

[racer26]

Wall St certainly doesn't seem to like the idea of MBLY and TSLA parting ways.

Time for one of those GF press previews Electrek told us to expect starting today to turn things around.

 

[Irishjugg]

What is Chrysler's relationship to Ferrari now? I am very optimistic about the future of Ferrari as a brand and car maker.

No idea sorry

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Wall St certainly doesn't seem to like the idea of MBLY and TSLA parting ways.

Time for one of those GF press previews Electrek told us to expect starting today to turn things around.

Well Wall Street has been wrong for a long time

 

[esk8mw]

Isn't it crazy how there is a momentum killer for this stock every single time it shows strength? So incredibly annoying. The last uninterrupted rise I can think of is from February, when it ran from 141 to 270 in short order. I can't wait for a clean breakout; the stock is going to go vertical.

 

[tinm]

Seems to me that Occam's Razor would say Tesla's dumping Mobileye because they're not happy with the performance of Mobileye's tech. Esp in light of recent accidents. Also, Tesla moves fast, much faster than any other automaker. This pace is probably a big strain on supply-chain partners. Tesla is impatient, as are we, its customers.

Random prediction, based on no facts or info just thin air: LIDAR is coming.

 

[Drax7]

Tesla must want its own proprietary solution to autonomous driving, and to introduce it as quickly
As possible. Tesla wants a first mover advantage. Mobileye wants its solution to be industry wide.

Mobileye can handle all the sensing , camera lidar radar etc., but for autonomous
Driving you need to know where to go, and need mapping as a redundancy, and that
goes beyond identifying obstacles.
Mobileye is doing fine there too, however tesla must feel confident it can get there
As well and faster.

 

[racer26]

In other news, the SCTY/TSLA arbitrage gap is down to $1.10.