Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Crowded Mind]

So he didn't know that he had a busy schedule ahead of him before making a proclamation that the plan will be posted last week?

You seem to get easily caught in technical minutiae. The point is not that this specific delay has relationship to model-3. The point is that this "behavior" of ever missing publicly announced timelines is concerning. As this is a very seriously recurring pattern, there is very little chance that Model-3 will be launched or ramped in the timelines the big man proclaimed. What is becoming increasingly clear is that all the timelines that he announces are his "aspirations" or when he would like to get something done - which is different from a projection from known/available information or a project plan.

If you are going to hold someone so closely to their words, perhaps you should be using the correct words.

"Working on Top Secret Tesla Masterplan, Part 2. Hoping to publish later this week." - Elon Musk

Edit: Got riled up and replied before reading the rest of the posts. Glad we're all in agreement.

 

[MitchJi]

So he didn't know that he had a busy schedule ahead of him before making a proclamation that the plan will be posted last week?

You seem to get easily caught in technical minutiae. The point is not that this specific delay has relationship to model-3. The point is that this "behavior" of ever missing publicly announced timelines is concerning. As this is a very seriously recurring pattern, there is very little chance that Model-3 will be launched or ramped in the timelines the big man proclaimed.

You believe that prioritizing actually working on the M3 as opposed to working on a blog post means it's less likely that the M3 gets completed in time? That's classic! Finishing the blog post on time is totally and completely irrelevant, except that some people think it is, which hopefully means a better entry point for buying J19 LEAPS when they become available.

I'm betting by going all in on J19 LEAPS as soon as I can that the ramp will be close to on time. I'd advise you not to bet against that but if you do we'll see who's correct.

 

[Drumheller]

I'd rather he got rest tonight and worked on the SMP2 at some point in the future when he has time for it. People make sloppy mistakes when they are sleep deprived.

 

[N5329K]

Since the last "secret master plan" was just a restatement of what the founders of Tesla had publicly announced (and wrote about) before incorporation, and Mr. Musk referred to that one as "secret" in jest, what makes you think SMP 2.0 will be such a surprise? I do hope he's reasonably on time is delivering it, whatever it might be, if only for the optics. Tesla needs to be seen as paying very close attention to expectations, and also the clock.
Robin

 

[Papafox]

a

Agree with this point - he prioritized working on Model 3 (per the latest tweet) over the master product plan. I would not want it any other way, especially that we are seemingly at the pencils down stage on Model 3. I suspect that there are series of last moment decisions that are required to be made before "pencil down" on Model 3, and product design team requested a meeting with the chief product architect...

Since the name of the plan has been changed to "master product plan" once can figure there's a good chance of the plan containing info that could be seen favorably by analysts and move the stock price. A mention of "we are now pencils down" on the Model 3 would be seen favorably as well. Ditto with any info about the evolution of the autopilot to make it safer against corner cases.

 

[esk8mw]

I think the product plan can move the stock price if it states plans to build high-demand items or the Tesla Mobility Uber thing with reasonable specificity. I'm thinking of a truck and Model Y (cheaper Model X). Everyone knows they are potential ideas, but if actual dates/targets are set then I think the markets can begin to price in more of the potential. All it takes is a line about how the GGFs will bring down battery costs to a level such that a $75k 150 KWH truck will be feasible by x date to make this a big deal.

 

[AlMc]

I accept this is going to fly in the face of recent posts/posters and I am calm and don't need a 'chill pill'...but....can we get 'steak' and
after we have heard the 'sizzle'?

Why even suggest that you, the CEO, will be releasing a significant announcement about the direction of your company until you have it complete or so near completion that your 'hope' timeframe is, in fact, the reality?

My suggestion continues to be that we get a COO to take some things off EM's plate.

 

[Krugerrand]

Why even suggest that you, the CEO, will be releasing a significant announcement about the direction of your company until you have it complete or so near completion that your 'hope' timeframe is, in fact, the reality?

I will state the obvious: because that's who he is and that's what he does.

It has always annoyed me when people want others to change, to be more like them/to conform/to be a certain preconceived way.

But enough about me. Now that you know this is his thing, you can invest short term accordingly.

 

[tanner]

I will state the obvious: because that's who he is and that's what he does.

It has always annoyed me when people want others to change, to be more like them/to conform/to be a certain preconceived way.

But enough about me. Now that you know this is his thing, you can invest short term accordingly.

There's no denying that things could be organized and executed better. I agree with @AlMc

 

[austinEV]

I accept this is going to fly in the face of recent posts/posters and I am calm and don't need a 'chill pill'...but....can we get 'steak' and
after we have heard the 'sizzle'?

Why even suggest that you, the CEO, will be releasing a significant announcement about the direction of your company until you have it complete or so near completion that your 'hope' timeframe is, in fact, the reality?

My suggestion continues to be that we get a COO to take some things off EM's plate.

Yep. I think of the sizzle to steak ratio as a metric to mentally track. It is perilously high. Decrease the numerator or better yet increase the denominator.

Tesla historic big successes(steak):

• Designing, releasing and mass manufacturing possibly the best car in the world, the Model S
• Designing, releasing and probably ramped the Model X, an excellent if not perfect SUV

Tesla historic big promises (sizzle):

• Designing, releasing and mass manufacturing a 35k+ midsize sedan
• Building the largest building on earth, the Battery Gigafactory
• Revolutionizing the energy industry by manufacturing energy storage products
• Revolutionizing the energy industry by buying SCTY for their factory and sales arm?
• Other factories in other countries
• Other vehicles in the future

(I am sure I am missing some things in both lists)

Now I can (and do) love the To-Do list, but it is getting over long. I dearly wish that Elon and team would focus on making a few things a reality before leveraging up again. The issue isn't about us wishing Elon would stop being a dreamer, but the actual-in-fact risk of something going wrong. The more things they try to take on the riskier things get.

So all this focus on the new edition of the master plan rubs me the wrong way. We are still getting too much dreaming, and this is more of that output. However, I concede that the old master plan has run out of runway so I new edition happens to be due.

 

[Drax7]

Elon instead of running several industries, or inventing new ones, should become a short term
trader. Scalping the market is the new new thing.

 

[Intl Professor]

If Elon is remotely 0.1 percent as anxious about the product plan as people on this thread, he will never get it done or have a heart attack. That I do not wish. Cool it guys. You're being overly anxious. Hard for your hearts too.

 

[steve3]

As this is a very seriously recurring pattern, there is very little chance that Model-3 will be launched or ramped in the timelines the big man proclaimed. What is becoming increasingly clear is that all the timelines that he announces are his "aspirations" or when he would like to get something done - which is different from a projection from known/available information or a project plan.

My own interest in assessing Mr. Musk's recognition of M3 timely criticality was superbly (and surprisingly) demonstrated at the M3 reveal on March 31: the presentation started at the announced time, and it was clearly prepared & rehearsed ahead of time; both aspects "out of character" within his personal process, yet clear indicators for me that his recognition of the magnitude of M3 is in sync with the market's. I don't view this current "delay" in publishing SMP2 as a regression in any degree from that demonstration of his spot-on assessed prioritization regarding M3. Asking him to stay "out of character" (and prioritize timeliness over his pursuit of engineering excellence) for our benefit would surely guarantee slippage in other areas that are more critical.

 

[larmor]

The Sun continues to supply free energy, SMP plan or not. If it can be harnassed with capital cost only, there should not be any operating costs for free energy... People buy bottled water, sourced from the tap...

 

[AlMc]

I love my SC and I've always received top notch service from Tesla. They always fit me in, and I always get an MS loaner. My suggestion is to find a tech you like working with, build a rapport with them, find out what they like to drink, leave a bottle of that in the frunk of your loaner upon return, and then discreetly notify the tech upon return that the frunk hinges were "a little squeaky" and that they should check that out personally and as soon as possible.

I'm not saying causation equates to correlation, but I've always received top notch service from Tesla.

I will state the obvious: because that's who he is and that's what he does.

It has always annoyed me when people want others to change, to be more like them/to conform/to be a certain preconceived way.

But enough about me. Now that you know this is his thing, you can invest short term accordingly.

I realize he probably won't change. Hence the suggestion of A COO to take some TM matters off his rather full plate.

 

[neroden]

So he didn't know that he had a busy schedule ahead of him before making a proclamation that the plan will be posted last week?

You seem to get easily caught in technical minutiae. The point is not that this specific delay has relationship to model-3. The point is that this "behavior" of ever missing publicly announced timelines is concerning. As this is a very seriously recurring pattern, there is very little chance that Model-3 will be launched or ramped in the timelines the big man proclaimed. What is becoming increasingly clear is that all the timelines that he announces are his "aspirations" or when he would like to get something done - which is different from a projection from known/available information or a project plan.

Yeah, that's why I always add time to anything he says. Run rate of 400,000/year annualized by end of 2017? Assume it's the end of 2018.

 

[Papafox]

I accept this is going to fly in the face of recent posts/posters and I am calm and don't need a 'chill pill'...but....can we get 'steak' and
after we have heard the 'sizzle'?

Why even suggest that you, the CEO, will be releasing a significant announcement about the direction of your company until you have it complete or so near completion that your 'hope' timeframe is, in fact, the reality?

My suggestion continues to be that we get a COO to take some things off EM's plate.

Thumbs up on the steak, but there's need for sizzle at the moment and here's why. Musk and Tesla are involved in a battle that involves the autopilot accident and the SEC evaluation. Besides the usual suspects who would like to see Tesla embarrassed, you now have some additional players, namely Fortune Magazine and Consumer Reports who have a dog in the fight. At stake is the question of the future continued availability of autopilot to consumers and at stake is the SEC's opinion of whether an investigation is warranted on the material importance (from the information Tesla knew at the time) of the autopilot accident. If TSLA stock price remains comfortably above 215, then there's little reason to consider the autopilot accident to be materially important. If, however, the SP drops below 215, then the SEC might look closer at the topic. If the SEC evaluation turns into an SEC investigation (which I do not think will happen), then the autopilot question becomes center stage in the media again, and those media outlets that supports the position of Consumer Reports will begin to chime in and the news cycle goes decidedly negative.

Thus, it makes a great deal of sense for Elon to release enough information about where Tesla is heading so that the stock price stays high or goes higher. I see this goal as the reason why he has chosen this rather busy time to release his Master Product Plan. There's nothing coincidental about the timing. Musk is normally rather ambivalent to short term swings of TSLA stock price, but he isn't right now, and one needs to understand he's in a unique situation at the moment.

 

[Turing]

You believe that prioritizing actually working on the M3 as opposed to working on a blog post means it's less likely that the M3 gets completed in time? That's classic! Finishing the blog post on time is totally and completely irrelevant, except that some people think it is, which hopefully means a better entry point for buying J19 LEAPS when they become available.

I'm betting by going all in on J19 LEAPS as soon as I can that the ramp will be close to on time. I'd advise you not to bet against that but if you do we'll see who's correct.

When do the J19's drop for tesla, also how can i look this info up? Thanks in advance.

 

[FANGO]

I'm going to go ahead and step in here to remind everyone, after pages and pages of crazy fever dreams about what the "secret" master plan entails, that the last "secret" master plan was not a secret, the "secret" part was a joke, it was just a blog post laying out Tesla's general intentions, all in one place, which would be easy to read and easy to share with people, to remove the notion that Tesla "only wants to make expensive cars for rich people" or whatever else. Obviously it is questionable how well it worked because tons of people still think that to be the case, but if this new "secret master plan" is the same as the old one, it will not be anything new, not be anything particularly important to the future of the company, and the crazy ideas and tens of pages of posts about it will all be completely irrelevant.

Now, there's still the possibility that it's not like the other one and there actually is new or interesting information in it, but based on precedent there will not be so it's foolish for us to expect it to be. But when has foolishness ever stopped this board before?

 

[Krugerrand]

There's no denying that things could be organized and executed better. I agree with @AlMc

No one person is great at everything, and that's ok. I agree with myself.