Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Thumper]

On a happy note, the recent purchase ofSamsung batteries should (but probably won't) show the shorts there is no lack of automotive demand. If Tesla lacked demand for cars, they would put the cells into TE. They only buy extra cells because of excess demand.

 

[techmaven]

On a happy note, the recent purchase ofSamsung batteries should (but probably won't) show the shorts there is no lack of automotive demand. If Tesla lacked demand for cars, they would put the cells into TE. They only buy extra cells because of excess demand.

No way they see it that way. A quick perusal of various forums shows that they did not take it that way.

 

[Krugerrand]

Totalt isn't:

We inspect all cars before they leave the factory. OF COURSE YOU DO.

All our cars come with 4 wheels. OF COURSE THEY DO.

Again, it's simply to reassure customers that they're not neglecting QC - what with the Model X issues. Sometimes the obvious has to be stated. Of all the communication blunders that have happened this one doesn't even register.

 

[TMSE]

Again, it's simply to reassure customers that they're not neglecting QC - what with the Model X issues. Sometimes the obvious has to be stated. Of all the communication blunders that have happened this one doesn't even register.

Kruger,

Well said. There are some folks here who think they know better than folks at Tesla and over analyze every little thing. They better chill.

 

[EinSV]

One could say the same about you and your itchy dislike trigger finger.

... Aaaaand again with the dislike.

Dislikers gonna dislike

 

[TMSE]

Dislikers gonna dislike

Haha.. I like

 

[neroden]

The most serious competitor seems to be VW, at-least if one should go by rumors and PR statements.

I suppose this makes sense. In order to compete in electric cars, an existing car company basically has to write off its entire ICE expertise and production lines, and bet the company on EVs. They're conservative and unwilling to do that. VW, however, is basically about to die due to being caught red-handed in massive criminal fraud, so they have nothing to lose by making a huge, risky bet.

 

[EinSV]

Haha.. I like

For the record, imo Johan is 1000% correct on this. The engineering target should be to make inspection unnecessary. Highlighting inspection of every vehicle is a little off base.

 

[JRP3]

On a happy note, the recent purchase ofSamsung batteries should (but probably won't) show the shorts there is no lack of automotive demand.

The Samsung cells look to be much too low specific energy for automotive use.

 

[TMSE]

For the record, imo Johan is 1000% correct on this. The engineering target should be to make inspection unnecessary. Highlighting inspection of every vehicle is a little off base.

Well everyone is entitled to their opinion. We all should respect that. But some folks here act like prima donnas. You know who

 

[EinSV]

Well everyone is entitled to their opinion. We all should respect that. But some folks here act like prima donnas. You know who

You are seriously off base.

 

[neroden]

I think there are two problems:
Most of the market is not smart enough to figure out what is happening.

And this point they don't believe Elon's prodictions.

If you look at websites like Seeking Alpha, you'll discover a remarkable number of people who believe idiotically stupid things -- conspiracy theorists who think that Tesla is a fraud like Enron, for instance. As long as there's a large amount of money in the market with people who believe nonsense like that, we will see the stock price depressed.

The larger part of the market isn't quite that ignorant, but close to it. They haven't bothered to look into the details of the company and they make assumptions which are simply wrong. (The current most common wrong assumption is still "oh, the other carmakers will just make a solid Tesla competitor immediately", and the other most common one a few years ago was "electric cars can't be practical at any price point"; these were both obviously wrong to anyone who'd studied the situation, but most people in the markets didn't study the situation at all.) This is another source of serious underestimation of Tesla.

I have a personal ultra-worst-case scenario for Tesla under which Tesla is worth a tad less than the current stock price, but there are a bunch of crazy bears who think Tesla is worth zero. Until they are marginalized, we won't see the stock price go up to reflect Tesla's full potential. They won't be marginalized until model 3 is in mass production.

As a long-termer, I'm actually pleased that the stock price is staying well below Tesla's likely true value, and that crazy bears are willing to buy deep out of the money puts at high premiums. But anyway, that's the dynamic.

 

[sdtslafan]

Just finished watching the shareholder's meeting. I could watch it over and over. AWESOME. Not the Q and A of course, that was ridiculously bad. But the history slide show had a lot of tidbits that were priceless for anyone who is a long term follower and supporter of the company.

Clearly, there was a focused effort on showing appreciation for current employees. Elon is of course very calculating and I believe this is has way of attempting to minimize attrition in the face of the intense hiring by companies like Faraday Future and other start-ups. Some of these engineers with "mad skills" will surely leave. Most however will stay for the opportunity to continue working with Elon who is a visionary without parallel.

The disclosure that the GF can theoretically do 3x the previously estimated 35+15 GWh may explain why it seems that initiation of GiF stage II seems to be lagging. Theoretically they can now do 50 x 1/7 x 3 or approximately 21 GWh of batteries just from stage 1 of the gigafactory that is already completed. If each Model III is 60 Kwh (generous), that is enough to make 350,000 Model IIIs without even adding to the factory footprint. What are your thoughts on this? Is my math off? Do they need all 7 phases?

On an unrelated note, it was interesting to hear this week that Cadillac is nixing the ELR and that BMW is not planning on releasing a compelling EV until at least 2021. Colin Langan of UBS always points out that the established OEMs won't lie idle and will soon release viable competition to Tesla. Ronnie Moas of Standpoint research says the same thing. Well, enough with the handwaving guys...Colin and Ronnie, what evidence do you have of any car in the pipeline that can complete with Tesla? These guys are all about the numbers and the facts until you ask them for specifics on any credible competition. Then they revert to "Well the big guys aren't going to just lie down, blah blah blah." They can't give specifics because there are no specifics to give. The only car that has ever even been introduced as a possible competitor is the Porsche Mission E and I am quite skeptical. When a company who has no experience in EVs claims that they can achieve a full-charge in 15 minutes, I find it extremely hard to believe, unless they hired away Elon.

 

[TMSE]

Meanwhile, something to keep us, Tesla fans and TSLA longs, grounded:

 

[Tenable]

Even if Porsche is somehow able to recharge in 15 minutes the primary benefit of doing so would be for those on the go. Where will their infrastructure come from?

As I typed this I thought to myself: oh *sugar*, what if they install a charger at every dealership. Obviously it wouldn't fill all the gaps, but it would help them makeup ground quite rapidly. Something to think about, as Elon has stated countless times, there is room for everyone. It would be nice if they stepped up to the plate.

 

[Causalien]

Ah, I'd like to debate Elon in the Jacuzzi about life as a simulation.

 

[Krugerrand]

For the record, imo Johan is 1000% correct on this. The engineering target should be to make inspection unnecessary. Highlighting inspection of every vehicle is a little off base.

I don't disagree. In time. Just not right now.

 

[MartinAustin]

what if they install a charger at every dealership. Obviously it wouldn't fill all the gaps, but it would help them makeup ground quite rapidly

Not totally TSLA short-term related, but it's the weekend now and I can't help but jump in on this. The makers of electric cars who keep putting their chargers at dealerships are generating a problem now that will be difficult and expensive to solve later. Dealerships close from time to time and chargers aren't available 24-7-365. Dealerships don't exist in places where no-one lives... they only exist in places where they will make a lot of profit selling and servicing cars. Therefore if you're on a road trip you aren't able to find these chargers when you need them. And... there is nothing to do while you're waiting for your car to charge except wander around the dealership, which not everyone wants to do. (the dealership probably loves it though) There's no denying there'll be some level of sales pressure to buy accessories, a new car, test drive a new car, or talk to dealership staff about something. If a dealership is presenting food or restroom facilities, they are probably not going to be fantastic either - stale kolaches anyone?

The Tesla approach, with the exception of a few locations inside cities, is to put charges at travel stops in small towns and middle-of-nowhere places where you are driving from city to city. They are unmanned and available 24-7-365. They're all next to conventional shops, restaurants and food places, or hotels - the kinds of places whose business is based on professional presentation of their product, so you they're a lot more enjoyable, and Tesla is not liable for any of the standards involved in those.

 

[Cobos]

I suppose this makes sense. In order to compete in electric cars, an existing car company basically has to write off its entire ICE expertise and production lines, and bet the company on EVs. They're conservative and unwilling to do that. VW, however, is basically about to die due to being caught red-handed in massive criminal fraud, so they have nothing to lose by making a huge, risky bet.

I'm not sure if the full extent of what this is going to cost VW has struck home yet. Hence I'm not sure if they are willing (yet) to bet the farm, factory and the whole shebang on EVs. Last time I was in germany this spring there were lots of commercials for the Golf GTE, but none for the e-Golf, which I find kind of telling.

Cobos

 

[Tenable]

Not totally TSLA short-term related, but it's the weekend now and I can't help but jump in on this. The makers of electric cars who keep putting their chargers at dealerships are generating a problem now that will be difficult and expensive to solve later.

I agree with much of your premise. However, when you are trying to make up ground you go for the most expedient and least expensive route. You fill the gaps in later. Keep in mind that you don't need to have a charger everywhere to begin with, just one within range of the next charge IE 200 miles or w/e the assigned range. Also, if you travel to small towns across the country, the majority have dealerships for the major automakers. It would be difficult to imagine a national roll out of charging stations in short order if the needed capital is allocated.