Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Julian Cox]

The production VP hasn't left, he's just taking a sabbatical (see above). If you've read EM's biography then you'd appreciate why

Oh no, they have left EM style. Not only that Elon is dead excited about whoever it is that has been hired to replace them.

EM sets goals, you don't hit the goals or come up with reasons why it's impossible, EM does your job for you until the goal Elon set is reached. Then you and Elon train your replacement, then you leave.

Like some meritocracy reign of terror. Perform or you get to be the one forcing the CEO to waste his time doing your job for you - the one you said could not be done. Kinda cool.

 

[ggies07]

Not going to happen. Elon said it wasn't going to happen and he even said people would misinterpret, misconstrue and just plain get it wrong - and here we are...

The ambitious plans will NOT be accomplished on time, which likely also means not on budget - time costs money. Therefore you will continue to talk about needing 'steak'. At this point I'm not sure why you don't just go buy yourself some by establishing more humanly possible dates, numbers and dollar figures, and invest according to them.

The goalposts got moved. A lot. The market and its makers will lag behind Tesla, yet again and especially with Andrea James off doing her own thing. Bears just got all the steak they need to gnaw on for the next few years. It's Groundhog Day. Tesla can't this, Elon can't that, vaporware, losing a billion dollars a car, blah, blah, blah. *yawn*

As much as I'd love for Tesla to be out of this particular cycle, they won't be until the goal is achieved. And then I'm not even sure there won't be another inconceivable goal to reach for like, oh, I don't know - autonomous driving by some ridiculous date.

Short term we deal with all the analyst's angst and bear's poo. SSDD.

Elon said on the call that he thinks the naysayers will never get it, no matter what they do. They just got to keep on keeping on with their plans.

 

[tanner]

And seems we have a physical recall to contemplate? Airbags...

U.S., Takata confirm recall of 35 mln-40 mln Takata air bag inflators

News broke of that yesterday

 

[AlMc]

Not going to happen. Elon said it wasn't going to happen and he even said people would misinterpret, misconstrue and just plain get it wrong - and here we are...

The ambitious plans will NOT be accomplished on time, which likely also means not on budget - time costs money. Therefore you will continue to talk about needing 'steak'. At this point I'm not sure why you don't just go buy yourself some by establishing more humanly possible dates, numbers and dollar figures, and invest according to them.

The goalposts got moved. A lot. The market and its makers will lag behind Tesla, yet again and especially with Andrea James off doing her own thing. Bears just got all the steak they need to gnaw on for the next few years. It's Groundhog Day. Tesla can't this, Elon can't that, vaporware, losing a billion dollars a car, blah, blah, blah. *yawn*

As much as I'd love for Tesla to be out of this particular cycle, they won't be until the goal is achieved. And then I'm not even sure there won't be another inconceivable goal to reach for like, oh, I don't know - autonomous driving by some ridiculous date.

Short term we deal with all the analyst's angst and bear's poo. SSDD.

This is why I will continue to be a cautious bull, No worries.

So, being a cautious bull I have put low ball bids in for DITM 2017/18 LEAPS and Stock as I will probably catch some 'steak'. Will watch my short term calls go to '0' (May) or maybe rally a little (Sept).

So, that is what I am doing......I don't recommend this...just what I am doing.

 

[aznt1217]

Not sure if this has been discussed already, but I just finished listening to the call and was shocked at Elon's response about the last analyst's question about Hoerbiger. Was he intentionally trying to downplay their involvement? They're in open litigation with each other.... Elon certainly is well aware of them and this issue.

Don't be. It was a journalist-- not an analyst not pronouncing the name properly or clearly stating what the question was. She was not read up. They dropped them as a supplier and wouldn't be able to comment on it anyway if there is litigation.

 

[JRP3]

Not sure if this has been discussed already, but I just finished listening to the call and was shocked at Elon's response about the last analyst's question about Hoerbiger. Was he intentionally trying to downplay their involvement? They're in open litigation with each other.... Elon certainly is well aware of them and this issue.

Maybe he didn't understand what was being said, was the name being pronounced properly? It was an odd moment.

 

[Krugerrand]

We've got the first PT raise - by Ben Kallo of Baird, who reiterated Buy rating and raised PT $300 --> $338. Digest via Streetinsider.com (paywall)

A whole $38, huh?

 

[AlMc]

Another TMCer that rarely posts anymore shared this with me: Great response to the bears argument 'TM loses $X from every car it sells'

If you value Tesla per car sold, you’re an idiot

 

[esk8mw]

Wow. This price action is both bad and interesting. I wonder where the bottom is today? Every time it tries to stabilize there is another massive sell order to push it down further. Basically, there's a lot of skepticism re: the guidance and I'm not sure what Tesla can do in the short term to give confidence in the guidance.

 

[Ulmo]

All the below was written before I knew about "share dilution due to capital raise". My entire calculation was off.



Idiots trade SP, too, and there's LOADS of tweeters right now championing how much money they're making off of shorts and puts, and they're not even idiots if they're making money.

Their premise is that there is enough FUD to go around to complain Tesla can't meet its 2018 500,000 goal IN SUCH A WAY it's actually worse than meeting their prior 2020 500,000 goal. (It's a bit like seeing people chant "Ooga Booga Booga Down Stock Down Ooga Booga Booga!" in a magic incantation drum circle: other people see it and rush in and play along.)

The flip side is a company targeting that will make good money someday, if they don't screw up, and they haven't screwed up yet, not in a huge way. They're making huge profit margin off of every product they've ever sold (per-product). (Here, there's lots of people claiming lofty goals, which may also seem like magic incantations in many ways --- especially the whole horseless carriage that drives itself craziness, and this INSANE notion of an electric car.)

This looks like a classic bear-bull struggle.

So, we're experiencing DTU. The only question is when's the bottom.

Let's put some intelligence behind the bears: "The idea is that the success will be a failure." That's not quite right: "The idea is that since they probably will sell more cars, they will fail more." Yeah, that's closer to what they're saying: "Execution errors, margin busts." So, "after 4 profitable product lines, their 5th will OF COURSE just HAVE to fail", or "The probability of failure of their 5th product line after 4/4 of their first 4 product lines made profit is high enough to put the SP projection into question."

The SP projection from before the pre-ER drop programmed in success for the original claim of 500,000 by 2020 plus a little more, from what people here have said. So, now that the "a little more" was rolled into a 500,000 by 2018 target by the company, the SP projection, in the mind of the bears, is "now more suspect than back when it was 500,000 plus something by 2020".

So, there's me, in my "wirr wirr wirr" drum circle. The SP will do as the SP does.

 

[tftf]

We've got the first PT raise - by Ben Kallo of Baird, who reiterated Buy rating and raised PT $300 --> $338. Digest via Streetinsider.com (paywall)

Must be true then, $338 it is.

Ben Kallo is a pro, he sees hidden value and knows his numbers. He used to work for Stanford Financial Group:

BillK on Twitter

Yes, that Stanford Financial Group: Stanford Financial Group - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Sarcasm out.

 

[kenliles]

Oh no, they have left EM style. Not only that Elon is dead excited about whoever it is that has been hired to replace them.

EM sets goals, you don't hit the goals or come up with reasons why it's impossible, EM does your job for you until the goal Elon set is reached. Then you and Elon train your replacement, then you leave.

Like some meritocracy reign of terror. Perform or you get to be the one forcing the CEO to waste his time doing your job for you - the one you said could not be done. Kinda cool.

reminiscent of Jobs delineation of localized responsibility and accountability - that environment pre-selects to those who thrive on performance based reward- Elon taking control of MX quality is part of that pattern. More than anything it instructs the culture on the value of all positions - none are un-important etc. - well done EM

 

[hoang51]

Wow. This price action is both bad and interesting. I wonder where the bottom is today? Every time it tries to stabilize there is another massive sell order to push it down further. Basically, there's a lot of skepticism re: the guidance and I'm not sure what Tesla can do in the short term to give confidence in the guidance.

Forget worrying where's the bottom today. Worry about how low TSLA will go before reversing. Avoid catching falling knives.

 

[Curt Renz]

Idiots trade SP, too, and there's LOADS of tweeters right now championing how much money they're making off of shorts and puts, and they're not even idiots if they're making money.

Their premise is that there is enough FUD to go around to complain Tesla can't meet its 2018 500,000 goal.

The flip side is a company targeting that will make good money someday, if they don't screw up, and they haven't screwed up yet, not in a huge way. They're making huge profit margin off of every product they've ever sold (per-product).

Until yesterday the concern argued by bears was that the 2020 goal of 500,000 could not be met. Now that it has become a 2018 goal they are arguing that that cannot be met. But that new goal was not made public until after the market close yesterday and had not been factored into the share price. It's not as though before today the share price was inflated by that new goal. It now appears that the previous 2020 goal is easily achievable. In fact yesterday Elon estimated a million deliveries in 2020. If the share price is down today due to concern about meeting the 2018 goal, then traders are not behaving rationally and appear to be presenting investors with an opportune bargain.

 

[aznt1217]

I think overall short term sentiment has shifted quite a bit. I just wanted to comment on how the entire team seems to be absolutely lit up and super focused and motivated. The more hate Tesla has on it, the more hellbent the team is on achieving its goal of the transition to sustainable transport.

It's May 2016 and we hear the same arguments against Tesla. Elon even went as far as to state it on the call. When 400 Roadsters were being built they were told "you can't do it. Then Model S was built, you can't ramp up. Then when we beat targets, it's still not profitable you can't do it. Now you can't build the X-- it's impossible. Now they are building the X on a faster ramp than the S.

Notice a trend? lol

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Until yesterday the concern argued by bears was that the 2020 goal of 500,000 could not be met. Now that it has become a 2018 goal they are arguing that that cannot be met. But that new goal was not made public until after the market close yesterday and had not been factored into the share price. It's not as though before today the share price was inflated by that new goal. It now appears that the previous 2020 goal is easily achievable. In fact yesterday Elon estimated a million deliveries in 2020. If the share price is down today due to concern about meeting the 2018 goal, then traders are not behaving rationally and appear to be presenting investors with an opportune bargain.

As bears see it, Elon was lying before and now he is lying even bigger, which therefore proves he was lying in the first place! This is confirmation of the bear thesis!

Time to move some funds around...

 

[tanner]

Forget worrying where's the bottom today. Worry about how low TSLA will go before reversing. Avoid catching falling knives.

that's literally the same thing as worrying about where the bottom is.

 

[cheshire cat]

Forget worrying where's the bottom today. Worry about how low TSLA will go before reversing. Avoid catching falling knives.

YUP!!! I've heard the ducks quack before-- now where's my knife catching gloves?

 

[kenliles]

... traders are not behaving rationally and appear to be presenting investors with an opportune bargain.

so true- and the lesson as always:
The most irrational behavior is to expect rationality.

 

[kenliles]

YUP!!! I've heard the ducks quack before-- now where's my knife catching gloves?

or
I'd rather catch 'em than miss 'em