mejojo
Active Member
Well, by my count, there's about 20 or 30 right here on this forum.....
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Well, by my count, there's about 20 or 30 right here on this forum.....
Energy density increasing over time is a given (the optimum energy storage weight in a car is Zero or as close to Zero as is practical to achieve. More Energy density is good - all other things being at least equal and ideally improved in parallel).
Which means the energy in a pack divided by the number of cells will trend to increasing violence of a per-cell-level thermal runaway as cars get better and better. Which means that maintaining structural integrity and controlled directional venting of a cell experiencing thermal runaway, in order to resist cell-group or pack-wide thermal runaway, is a given requirement and a requirement that is only going to grow as cars get better and better.
What is the strongest shape to deal with this requirement with the minimum weight of cell packing materials? Well it's a sphere, a cone or a cylinder and definitely not a pouch or a box-shape.
Which in all practicality basically points to a cylinder.
So does automated production, handling and welding. Automated assembly of cells into packs when those cells are cylinders is easy. Prismatics and floppy pouch cells, not so much. There is a single false premise at the root of prismatic cells: That bigger cells reduce cost per KWh because you only have to make 1 cell instead of 20 or something for the same capacity. This is just bunk which at this point in time that has been debunked. One of the many reasons that experience has led to the conclusion that it is bunk is that one cell's worth of QC rejection due to one little separator perforation can either kill 1 cells worth or 20+ cells worth of cell materials at a time. In the latter case that can either end up blowing up your end user and hence your customer's vehicle brand or ruining production yield both of which cost money.
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No delivery July 1....Let us not get ahead of ourselves.
EM was adamant that this was when they wanted all suppliers ramped/ready but that while it is a goal it probably won't happen.
He said production would start 'months' after that date
And, like clockwork, Anton predicts that 1,000,000 cars sold by 2020 will just lead to accelerating, massive losses for Tesla -- a total of $50.6 billion by 2020. LOL
I can't bring myself to link but you know where to find him if you must
I can't bring myself to link but you know where to find him if you must
jhm
Well-Known Member
Sure, but according to some demand was constrained a year ago, so 45% growth on a small base is just a triviality. /S
Seriously, I like this metric. If demand constraint theorists had claimed that net new orders would not grow by 50% y/y, then they could claim this 45% growth as evidence. But making vague pronouncements about non quantifiable notions of "demand" is intellectually weak and not worth debating except on the Short Term Price Movement thread.
So let's have discussions about net new orders because that is something Tesla actually tracks and is not afraid to report on. For my money, if net orders keeps growing 12% per year for the Model S, I will be quite happy that there is no material problem generating demand for the Model S. Of course, the Model X and eventually the Model 3 will grow orders at a faster rate, and so growth in orders is expected to moderate. Newer models will always grab more attention as they should, but the Model S remains a solid growth engine in Tesla's product portfolio.
Elon said on the call that he expects average size for the Model 3 pack to be 75kwh
No. He said well under 75 'on average'
The Battle for Model 3
I think we're about to enter one of the most interesting moments in the life of a Tesla investor, the battle for Model 3. Some type of capital raise will likely be needed to fund the quick and significant expansion of Model 3 manufacturing platform and gigafactory expansion. If Tesla chooses to do an equity raise, then stock price is of prime importance. Both the company and the shorts know this. Thus, the stock price becomes an important objective in the upcoming battle. Expect shorts to use their clever tactics and their allies in the media to try sinking the price. In Tesla's favor are the inevitable analyst price target increases that are coming soon. Demonstration that Model X is humming along smoothly at last without excessive numbers of glitches will be a good short-term catalyst. Tesla Energy could provide other needed catalysts in the relatively short-term. Keep those seat belts fastened and hang on!
I think we're about to enter one of the most interesting moments in the life of a Tesla investor, the battle for Model 3. Some type of capital raise will likely be needed to fund the quick and significant expansion of Model 3 manufacturing platform and gigafactory expansion. If Tesla chooses to do an equity raise, then stock price is of prime importance. Both the company and the shorts know this. Thus, the stock price becomes an important objective in the upcoming battle. Expect shorts to use their clever tactics and their allies in the media to try sinking the price. In Tesla's favor are the inevitable analyst price target increases that are coming soon. Demonstration that Model X is humming along smoothly at last without excessive numbers of glitches will be a good short-term catalyst. Tesla Energy could provide other needed catalysts in the relatively short-term. Keep those seat belts fastened and hang on!
OK, I wasn't able to listen in on the CC, so I was quoting another poster upstream. So, if Tesla did not say start producing 7/17, but "months" after that, how can they also say they plan to produce 100K-200K within 2017? I suppose September qualifies as "months", so from 0 to 25K per month starting September to get to min 100K for 2017?
jhm
Well-Known Member
Major Bear arguements: No way Tesla would deliver 500,000 cars in 2020. Model 3 will be late.
Conference call: "Internal target for Model 3 July, 2017." Placing order now will probably get you car in 2018.
From Q1 letter: 500,000 cars in 2018.
BOOM!!!! Shorts are TOAST!!!!!!
I think the plan is to build out a large part of Fremont with high capacity production lines that can do several hundred thousands per year. Then there will be a time for ramp up just as with the X. On the call it was mentioned that Model 3 is designed with detailed plans for manufacturing and no part is approved without that in mind. They might not make it but a half a year delay is still significant faster than the old plan.
Looks like they are not going to build other factories soonish but instead both Fremont and GF 1 is capable or more than the previous (communicated) targets.
He says what he is paid to say.And, like clockwork, Anton predicts that 1,000,000 cars sold by 2020 will just lead to accelerating, massive losses for Tesla -- a total of $50.6 billion by 2020. LOL
I can't bring myself to link but you know where to find him if you must
sundaymorning
Active Member
That's it, I'm digging up funds tomorrow to buy more. I won't need anyone here to caution me to be careful. Elon just gave the "all in" signal, I'm following him. This pop is coming, I just don't know when. The other side to this trade is a negative macro event, but it's alright I have lots of time, 2025 is ideally short term for me hah.
The Battle for Model 3- The Demand Component
One huge advantage of a rapid ramp-up of Model 3 production is that more buyers get to enjoy U.S. federal tax credits, due to the phase-out methodology used once 200,000 EVs have been delivered in the U.S. by Tesla. When Elon said to get your orders in soon if you want delivery in 2018, he offered a huge incentive for buyers to place orders in the near term, not just for quicker delivery but also for a chance to get at least a sliver of a tax credit. These orders should put Tesla over the 500,000 order milestone, which Tesla will announce, which will help raise the stock price and bring about equity funding. Tesla is being hugely responsive to the needs of Model 3 buyers with this plan, and the company will be rewarded with a wave of new orders in short order.
One huge advantage of a rapid ramp-up of Model 3 production is that more buyers get to enjoy U.S. federal tax credits, due to the phase-out methodology used once 200,000 EVs have been delivered in the U.S. by Tesla. When Elon said to get your orders in soon if you want delivery in 2018, he offered a huge incentive for buyers to place orders in the near term, not just for quicker delivery but also for a chance to get at least a sliver of a tax credit. These orders should put Tesla over the 500,000 order milestone, which Tesla will announce, which will help raise the stock price and bring about equity funding. Tesla is being hugely responsive to the needs of Model 3 buyers with this plan, and the company will be rewarded with a wave of new orders in short order.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Thx. Why are a number of folks so overly concerned with expansion of superchargers and service centers? Guys. They WILL scale these... not hard. Requires CapEx which was a constraint.. That's all.
Manufacturing scaling is hard.
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I agree. I think a 10X return on a 10 year buy and hold is highly likely.
Can anyone tell me why Tesla wouldn't be able to tap into the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund to help the new production speed up?
They have $800,000,000,000, they are allowed to invest in corporate stocks and bonds, they have an ethical investment clause in their charter, and the country is pushing hard to get its people into EV's.
Seems like a win, win, win situation unless I'm missing something.
RT
They have $800,000,000,000, they are allowed to invest in corporate stocks and bonds, they have an ethical investment clause in their charter, and the country is pushing hard to get its people into EV's.
Seems like a win, win, win situation unless I'm missing something.
RT
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
As soon as they finish the first production line (the machines that build the machines) they'll be able to ramp production of the lines.
I didn't catch all of the earnings call, so apologies if this was covered but... how in the world does this ramp happen in the stated timeframe? 7/1/17 is 14 months away, and while that's just to hold "feet to the fire", is it even technically feasible? Let's assume the markets remain open and the capital raise goes smoothly (I see no reason why it wouldn't), and they can source all of the needed PPE, how do they actually get it installed and ready for cranking out 10K vehicles a week??
Only idea here is that they are way ahead in building out this capacity than they are letting on. Clearly the Model 3 "prototypes" were much further along than many envisioned, so possibly they've been building out manufacturing way ahead of the Part 1 reveal. Only issue is that the reservation numbers supposedly caught EM off-guard... unless, of course, he anticipated this and is just playing coy.
The stock has been priced for 500k units in 2020 (and lots of uncertainty), but the two year acceleration is a big deal. If they can actually execute close to this, then the game-changing (mass market) happens so much sooner and the stock gets a big lift... now, every quarter is a march towards destiny (and will be scrutinized as such).
Only idea here is that they are way ahead in building out this capacity than they are letting on. Clearly the Model 3 "prototypes" were much further along than many envisioned, so possibly they've been building out manufacturing way ahead of the Part 1 reveal. Only issue is that the reservation numbers supposedly caught EM off-guard... unless, of course, he anticipated this and is just playing coy.
The stock has been priced for 500k units in 2020 (and lots of uncertainty), but the two year acceleration is a big deal. If they can actually execute close to this, then the game-changing (mass market) happens so much sooner and the stock gets a big lift... now, every quarter is a march towards destiny (and will be scrutinized as such).
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