Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[hockeythug]

If confirmation of X delivery wait times as early as next month doesn't belong in this thread then I don't know what does. Far worse things are allowed to continue in here for days and aren't "disliked" by the mod. This will be my last comment in the investment section.

 

[Fallenone]

I also think that many people were expecting the 100 kwh battery upgrade that would push the highest range (100D) to over 300 miles. That 300 number is sort of like resistance - it's a magical number people want to see exceeded. I think there was disappointment with no mention of it in the refresh. I noticed that the Model S page has 294 miles of range for the 90D now. Seems like it was 293 before - so the new nose is simply cosmetic - no real value to aerodynamics.

I have SO many friends who say that when the range hits 350, they will be all over a Tesla. I'm not sure why that is such a magical number, but it seems the be the threshold for a lot of people. Of course, every few miles they add to range increases the number of people that would buy a Tesla. I for one like the 350 number also. I like being able to do long day trips without a thought of charging. And more importantly, I don't want to sit in a campground for 4 hours to get enough miles to make it back. Of course, 500 miles would be even better! But, we've got to break the 300 miles range first. The scary part is that we really haven't seen ANY range increases due to improvements in battery technology. We saw about 30 miles from AWD, and Tesla said battery technology would increase range by about 5% each year, but I'm still waiting to see that 15 miles get added out of the blue because the batteries suddenly got better.

I think the mentality for 350 is you can drive 4 hours at 70 mph and still have 20% safety margin. This would really cover most people's driving patterns when doing road trips and can time 30 min+ rest.

Back on the bigger battery's news on SP. I fully agree the news would create more demand of a higher gross margin product. It's just not anything that can immediately be manifested by any quantifiable way to impact SP.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Well, those can't be the reasons because market does not know about most of them.

Give it another hour or two...

Here is the first TM tweet with the link to MX configurator:
View attachment 171924

As promised - STAY CALM... (Where is Johan when you need him??)

 

[JRP3]

I wonder if there were some recent items that have influenced the short term price change...

 

[MikeC]

Instead of just disliking posts, I remember Robert.Boston would move off-topic posts to the correct thread, preventing the unwanted conversation from perpetuating in the short-term thread. He also would move snippy posts to snippiness, instead of banning members. I am still unhappy that we lost jesselivesnomore's valuable insight due to a silly disagreement that he was banned over.

 

[flankspeed8]

I understand your concern, but at the very least investors in this thread want to be notified of any model upgrades, rather than be expected to hop around among the various car buyer threads to see if there is news related to any of the models.

Maybe it would be good for some who only seem to post/read threads on the ST Price Movement board to cruise around to some of the other forums to get a feel of what is going on and a more diverse source of information?

 

[Johan]

I'm here

And I'm calm. TSLA is being played with back and forth, up and down now by big traders and hedge funds, option traders and the market makers. All this up and down here between 260 and 240 is really just noise in the bigger scheme of things. Next big move will be Q2 earnings, with possibly some spice in between which could be sugar or salt. Yesterday's press call with some salt (recall) wrapped in some sugar (new options). All in all it tasted like "meh" which shows in today's price action.

 

[jhm]

I don't recall the Model X having a 5 seat option, much less having this standard. Is this a response to the backseat supplier issue? If so, it represents a clever workaround. The website says this is available mid-2016. So if the backseat issues are more profound, this could be the way to save volume over the next couple of quarters.

I know we are trying to avoid off topic product chatter, but I do believe this issue of responding to backseat shortage is important to stock price movements.

 

[Fallenone]

I don't recall the Model X having a 5 seat option, much less having this standard. Is this a response to the backseat supplier issue? If so, it represents a clever workaround. The website says this is available mid-2016. So if the backseat issues are more profound, this could be the way to save volume over the next couple of quarters.

I know we are trying to avoid off topic product chatter, but I do believe this issue of responding to backseat shortage is important to stock price movements.

The five seat option was on since last Oct IIRC.

It feels a bit "open" for the description of the 5 seat option. As it doesn't say the second row seats can or cannot be folded down. Possible different seats for this option?

 

[MitchJi]

I stated my preference to be alerted in the investment thread about matters such as upgrades that could affect the share price. In this case the lack of a 100 kWh option may have sent the share price downward. I don't have time to frequently peruse all of the car buyer threads to learn about breaking news. Quick heads-ups are more important to investors than car buyers.

I agree. I really appreciate Audobon's efforts to reduce the extraneous posts on this thread, but in this case I agree with Curt.

 

[techmaven]

Honestly doesn't this look like Q1 2013? I mean they didn't make the short wait times public but a lot of people were getting their cars way faster than expected. Then the fence sitters started seeing the positive reviews and jumped in. I guess we'll have to see how early the wait time bumps into Q3 because from here we should see it get longer with the refresh being out.

I was thinking the same thing. Many people waiting to see if the water is safe... and we have indications that now it is.

 

[Papafox]

One short-term catalyst would be getting Model X into stores and seeing orders rise with both X (finally in stores) and S (because of refresh). Perhaps the reason we haven't seen X in stores yet is because a battery tweak still lies ahead in the near future (75kwh and 100kwh instead of 70 and 90).

 

[Buddyroe]

One short-term catalyst would be getting Model X into stores and seeing orders rise with both X (finally in stores) and S (because of refresh). Perhaps the reason we haven't seen X in stores yet is because a battery tweak still lies ahead in the near future (75kwh and 100kwh instead of 70 and 90).

Well, you're close so far.....I see where the X design studio is up and you can order a 75D with 237 miles of range for $84,300 (plus shipping). That's $10k less than the 90D that gets only 20 miles more. I would be willing to bet the 100 is right around the corner.

 

[tander]

Regarding the next earnings, any thoughts on the missed deliveries numbers or general consensus coming out of the conference call? My back of the napkin was that they came up about 30m (net cash gain/loss) shy of guidance due to the deliveries, but with the model 3 pre-orders that added about 300m which makes that 30m seem pretty insignificant, but then again revenues which seem to be the focus sometimes will still be off by 5ish%. So assuming improving model x margins, growing battery sales, and maybe re-affirmed or upped guidance, it seems fairly optimistic to me. My sense with the model x is that maybe with the recall and getting through the order backlog there will be a fairly short-term slow down but the reviews and consensus will build and it will sell about as much or maybe a bit better than the model s.

 

[Irishjugg]

I thought that I reasonably responded to your preceding post. I did not give your post a dislike. My post received 9 likes, and from you I received the only dislike that I have ever received as far as I can recall. I would have thought that a moderator would have appreciated learning about a long-time member's preferences, even if he did not share them.

I stated my preference to be alerted in the investment thread about matters such as upgrades that could affect the share price. In this case the lack of a 100 kWh option may have sent the share price downward. I don't have time to frequently peruse all of the car buyer threads to learn about breaking news. Quick heads-ups are more important to investors than car buyers.

I agree that news about car upgrades and some other matters can be overly discussed here. But as I stated in my post which you disliked, "At the very least investors in this thread want to be notified of any model upgrades." Such notification can then motivate participants in this thread to check out the car model threads.

Undoubtedly moderating is a time consuming and thankless job. I appreciate your dedication to improvement of the message board. Thank you. But please understand my hoping that as a moderator you welcome my well considered comments, even if you disagree with them.

Very much this.

I appreciate the work you do here Audo, generally things are moderated quite well, but it appears you may be in the wrong in this instance.

Like Curt, I don't have the time to read every post in 15 other threads. This thread serves as the hub from which I am linked to relevant data in other threads, and to where I an tipped off to news that could potentially affect the stock price directly in thread. (Your #2 above seemed contradictory to your point for this very reason). Today's news fits this category, and I don't understand why you are so certain it doesn't belong here. If the thread finds it relevant, you should probably go with the active community of the threads wishes in this case.

 

[Irishjugg]

Instead of just disliking posts, I remember Robert.Boston would move off-topic posts to the correct thread, preventing the unwanted conversation from perpetuating in the short-term thread. He also would move snippy posts to snippiness, instead of banning members. I am still unhappy that we lost jesselivesnomore's valuable insight due to a silly disagreement that he was banned over.

Yeah, Jesse needs to be allowed back. Is he actually still banned, or is he just staying away of his own volition? If he's banned still, that's something the mods should swallow their pride on and fix.

 

[AudubonB]

Moderator response:
It was very clear: tie any such comments to how they may affect investments. It's not difficult - and you all can see how such posts were allowed to remain unaltered. "Not having time" is not justification for anything.

 

[Irishjugg]

Regarding the next earnings, any thoughts on the missed deliveries numbers or general consensus coming out of the conference call? My back of the napkin was that they came up about 30m (net cash gain/loss) shy of guidance due to the deliveries, but with the model 3 pre-orders that added about 300m which makes that 30m seem pretty insignificant, but then revenues which seem to be the focus sometimes will still be off by 5ish%. So assuming improving model x margins, growing battery sales, and maybe re-affirmed or upped guidance, it seems fairly optimistic to me. My sense with the model x is that maybe with the recall and getting through the order backlog there will be a fairly short-term slow down but the reviews and consensus will build and it will sell about as much or maybe a bit better than the model s.

I'm expecting a reasonably large buying opportunity after this coming ER. Looking for a good price to take a bit of profit and re load on cash to take advantage. My 270 order was just a bit too late and I haven't added one lower. Trying to flip out of my 220 cost basis shares, hoping fit 260-265 but may not get it. Anyone have exit price suggestions on a short term stock only play? Looking to unload 50% of my position from that buying tranche and renter as close to that original 220 as possible (ER tea leaves).

 

[Irishjugg]

Moderator response:
It was very clear: tie any such comments to how they may affect investments. It's not difficult - and you all can see how such posts were allowed to remain unaltered. "Not having time" is not justification for anything.

Just please be careful not to over moderate which may be the case in this one very specific instance. Again, normally a fantastic job. It seems from the responses that the thread consider the tie in of the above commentary to be fully self explanatory and clear.

 

[FredTMC]

Well, you're close so far.....I see where the X design studio is up and you can order a 75D with 237 miles of range for $84,300 (plus shipping). That's $10k less than the 90D that gets only 20 miles more. I would be willing to bet the 100 is right around the corner.

Wow. Not sure how the market will treat SP in the short-term regarding MX new orders for MAY delivery.

Others have discussed before but how is it REMOTELY possible that tesla will clear its existing MX order book by May?!

Let's assume the following:

- Tesla makes 1000 MX per week moving forward

- Current order book at 20k (w.a.g)

- most orders are for 90kwh (big battery)