Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Krugerrand]

Wheeler made his statement at the end of October. He didn't need to "forecast " how many weeks production would be shut down in October because October had already happened! Since his forecast was for a total of 2 weeks without production in Q4, if both of those had already happened in October then Tesla was not planning any additional shutdowns in November or December.

As pointed out up thread there could have been more or less days of no production in Q4 than what was forecast on the Q3 earnings call. But none of that variance would have been in October since downtime in October was a known fact on 10/26.

That is bang on. We do have one person now saying they took a tour the day before Thanksgiving and productions lines were not operational on that day....but perhaps that was simply an extra day of Thanksgiving holiday for that set of workers (since the poster said final assembly was working) and not part of some week long factory-wide production shutdown. Or maybe it was. What more perfect timing to do whatever it is you want to do when the week already includes a statutory holiday?

 

[Lump]

Last week Panasonic agreed to invest $250M in the Buffalo plant.
Was the 10 year purchase agreement for 10 gigawatts of PV panels announced anywhere?
Why SCTY SEC filling?

scty-8k_20161226.htm

On December 26, 2016, SolarCity Corporation (“SolarCity”) entered into a Production Pricing Agreement: Phases 1-3 (the “Phase 1-3 Agreement”) with Panasonic Corporation, Panasonic Corporation of North America and Sanyo Electric Co., Ltd. (collectively, “Panasonic”).

The Phase 1-3 Agreement provides that Panasonic will manufacture custom photovoltaic (PV) cells and modules for Tesla Motors, Inc. (“Tesla”) and SolarCity, primarily at the Riverbend manufacturing facility located in Buffalo, New York, and that Tesla and SolarCity will purchase certain amounts of PV cells and modules from Panasonic during the 10-year term of the Phase 1-3 Agreement. Production and specifications of PV cells and modules under the Phase 1-3 Agreement is to be determined quarterly by the parties, with the intent to produce best-in-class, high-efficiency, low-cost PV cells and modules totaling approximately 1 gigawatt each year.

 

[doctoxics]

American (November) or Canadian (October) Thanksgiving?



Did not happen. As I already explained, there are too many stalkers....er, enthusiasts...who regularly scope out the factory. That much time with an empty or mostly empty main parking lot and we'd know. We'd have multiple pictures/video of it. Not only that, it would have hit the media like Electrek. We would know without a doubt. Nobody has ever provided any concrete evidence of such. I know, because I've been quite specifically looking and listening for it.

The only 'multiple reports' we've gotten is people repeating what other's have erroneously said. This whole 2 weeks of shutdown in October has been repeated on here since Wheeler said Tesla planned on two weeks of shutdown in Q4. Somebody didn't listen closely enough and misquoted him and ever since then people have been repeating it as if it were fact. And now we've had somebody trying to be a sugar disturber spreading nonsense about a 4 week shutdown. Humbug!

Actually, Jason Wheeler said that there would be two weeks of shutdown during the holidays in Q4 in the Q2 conference call in early August. There is no reference to factory shutdown in Q4 in the Q3 conference call.

 

[Krugerrand]

Okay, so let's for a moment assume the worst and Tesla shutdown for an entire month (>30% of the time period) in Q4 as part of this whole general sucky 2016 thing we've got going on. How do they make up that approx. 10,000 vehicle production shortfall in the other two months? Can they make it up?

 

[Krugerrand]

Actually, Jason Wheeler said that there would be two weeks of shutdown during the holidays in Q4 in the Q2 conference call in early August. There is no reference to factory shutdown in Q4 in the Q3 conference call.

So what holidays exist in Q4? Thanksgiving - which we have confirmation from one poster that there was at least a partial (not entire as final assembly was still working) production shutdown the day before Thanksgiving, and Christmas which feel on a weekend and for which we know that the factory was up and running on at least the 26th.

Does Tesla consider Hallowe'en a holiday?

 

[Navin]

Just called local tesla dealership. Nice to see they are open today till 6pm. Not messing around - all systems pushing for a strong finish.

 

[Johan Gustafsson]

American (November) or Canadian (October) Thanksgiving?

Factory tour was 23/11

Did not happen. As I already explained, there are too many stalkers....er, enthusiasts...who regularly scope out the factory. That much time with an empty or mostly empty main parking lot and we'd know. We'd have multiple pictures/video of it. Not only that, it would have hit the media like Electrek. We would know without a doubt. Nobody has ever provided any concrete evidence of such. I know, because I've been quite specifically looking and listening for it.

The only 'multiple reports' we've gotten is people repeating what other's have erroneously said. This whole 2 weeks of shutdown in October has been repeated on here since Wheeler said Tesla planned on two weeks of shutdown in Q4. Somebody didn't listen closely enough and misquoted him and ever since then people have been repeating it as if it were fact. And now we've had somebody trying to be a sugar disturber spreading nonsense about a 4 week shutdown. Humbug!

I agree!!

 

[geneclean55]

Unless the 'production started' emails that people receive from Tesla are complete garbage, then using the 'production start' info posted on the model s delivery tracker, the only obvious gap in production during Q4 are the first couple weeks in October, everything else looks full, apart from maybe Thanksgiving day, and Christmas day. That being said, all the entries that I see for October are from European customers. Maybe they are less likely to use TMC, and the tracker spreadsheet?

 

[MitchJi]

We are in agreement that hearing both sides is good and that this thread gets clogged up at times with excessive debates by bull and bear alike.

I see no viable 'cure' for this as we have both seen over the years an attempt to have separate threads for different people or topics that relate to investing only to see one thread become the dominant/catch all thread.

I cringed when I read Audubon's post that he is planning to merge a"because we have too many threads " a lot of threads into one thread. Robert used to do the opposite. When a topic started to get beaten to death he would move the posts to another thread. That's an excellent way to mitigate the problem.

Merging all of the discussions into one thread is a great way to make the problem worse.

I believe you didn't understand what I was saying. I'll try to be a bit more explicit.

Wheeler made his statement at the end of October. He didn't need to "forecast " how many weeks production would be shut down in October because October had already happened! Since his forecast was for a total of 2 weeks without production in Q4, if both of those had already happened in October then Tesla was not planning any additional shutdowns in November or December.

As pointed out up thread there could have been more or less days of no production in Q4 than what was forecast on the Q3 earnings call. But none of that variance would have been in October since downtime in October was a known fact on 10/26.

I don't think he specified if the shutdown had already happened or not. In any case it's probably too late to be relevant. They'll probably release the numbers before the market opens on Tuesday.

Last year Q4 they were scrambling to deliver as many cars as possible. This year they are not. I think that means that they've nailed it. Based largely on that admittedly flimsy evidence my speculation is that they will hit either close to or a little over 27k.

 

[FredTMC]

Couple thoughts regarding Production monitoring at Fremont:

#1). "Final Assembly line" is all that matters.

If THIS assembly line is going, then Tesla is IN production.
Stamping, Body weld Lines, & Paint are NOT "critical path"

#2. EMPTY Parking Lot pics please.

For the love of God, if we could just get a handful of folks that drive by Fremont daily commute to report when the parking lot is NOT full. This isn't brain surgery folks. Geez. I live it SoCal or I'd do it myself on suspicious days/weeks. Anyone know of any traffic webcams that show the front parking lot?

 

[EinSV]

I believe you didn't understand what I was saying. I'll try to be a bit more explicit.

Wheeler made his statement at the end of October. He didn't need to "forecast " how many weeks production would be shut down in October because October had already happened! Since his forecast was for a total of 2 weeks without production in Q4, if both of those had already happened in October then Tesla was not planning any additional shutdowns in November or December.

As pointed out up thread there could have been more or less days of no production in Q4 than what was forecast on the Q3 earnings call. But none of that variance would have been in October since downtime in October was a known fact on 10/26.

FWIW I had a factory tour on Oct. 7, 12 days before the EAP/FSD announcement. Can't say much due to the NDA (and don't know much of value anyway) but the plant was not shutdown as could be seen publicly from the parking lot (as @Krugerrand and @FredTMC point out), However, we were not taken to the final assembly area and some other parts of the factory on the tour.

From reports on TMC and elsewhere I have assumed there was some lost time in production due to the switchover to AP2 -- how much is unclear. On the other hand, based on reports on the Model S and X delivery threads there do not appear to have been two weeks of shutdowns for the Thanksgiving and the end of the year holidays.

Bottom line is that even though the production part of the equation is a little muddled due to the AP2 switchover, based on many factors, including Tesla cutting off the deadline for US orders relatively early, the relative calmness in year-end deliveries, and the way VINs are tracking I would be pretty surprised if they didn't meet or exceed guidance on deliveries, with a nice pipeline of orders and cars in production and transit for Q1. We will find out soon enough ....

 

[dc_h]

If this is the case why would anyone that uses a car ~6x per week use TNS or UBER instead of buying their own car? Use your car when you need it and rent it out when not. This is why autonomous cars destroy private ownership is a fantasy.

TNS will destroy public transportation,taxis and maybe up to 1/3 of private car ownership.

No one wants to ride next to psycho strangers on a bus/train when for the same price you can take a private autonomous car.

Only people that rarely use their car will want to give it up and rely solely on mobility services.

Context Uber Alles: urban drivers may spend 300 to 1000 a month to park their car. A high rise parking spot in Chicago or New York can be over 100,000 and street parking a nice car results in random body damage. Parking in urban spaces, when you do have private parking is valet or 20 minutes of hunting.
Suburban nights out are also increasingly Uber nights, to avoid possible DUI. Popular suburban towns with vibrant night life can also be challenging to park in. I think these scenarios are big in USA, but huge in Asian and African supercities, and Europe. Lower density upscale suburban markets are probably the least likely places to replace car #1 or car 2, but will still supplement ownership for many situations.

 

[madodel]

Context Uber Alles: urban drivers may spend 300 to 1000 a month to park their car. A high rise parking spot in Chicago or New York can be over 100,000 and street parking a nice car results in random body damage. Parking in urban spaces, when you do have private parking is valet or 20 minutes of hunting.
Suburban nights out are also increasingly Uber nights, to avoid possible DUI. Popular suburban towns with vibrant night life can also be challenging to park in. I think these scenarios are big in USA, but huge in Asian and African supercities, and Europe. Lower density upscale suburban markets are probably the least likely places to replace car #1 or car 2, but will still supplement ownership for many situations.

Having lived in a large city in the past and driven in them since getting out I agree with this. My daughter is now in Cologne and when we visited we frequently had to park the rental on a sidewalk as there were no parking lots and parking at hotels was usually pretty steep and everyone else parked on sidewalks. She has no need for a car because public transport there is good for what she needs but I have a Model Ξ reserved for her (assuming Tesla allows pickup in Germany from a US reservation) and I can see this working really well for her, giving her some extra income. I have an AP1 X, but to be honest I have no interest in renting it out to anyone so I'm not feeling any disappointment in missing out on AP2.

 

[Green Pete]

Context Uber Alles: urban drivers may spend 300 to 1000 a month to park their car. A high rise parking spot in Chicago or New York can be over 100,000 and street parking a nice car results in random body damage. Parking in urban spaces, when you do have private parking is valet or 20 minutes of hunting.
Suburban nights out are also increasingly Uber nights, to avoid possible DUI. Popular suburban towns with vibrant night life can also be challenging to park in. I think these scenarios are big in USA, but huge in Asian and African supercities, and Europe. Lower density upscale suburban markets are probably the least likely places to replace car #1 or car 2, but will still supplement ownership for many situations.

College towns, students who don't yet own cars, and if TN is available, very well may never bother getting one.

 

[winfield100]

Just called local tesla dealership. Nice to see they are open today till 6pm. Not messing around - all systems pushing for a strong finish.

(as a SINGLE data point)
drove by Rockville, Maryland, USA service center (~15 miles due north of Washington DC, USA) 3x diff days. each time ~50+ vehicles OUTSIDE and unknown number inside, ~25-30% covered with the canvas type vehicle suits, bunch with white shrink wrap, but differant ones each day, bunch of X models. things are moving in and out. saw 3 Tesla X on trip DC to Florida!!, One in Orlando, one near Tampa probably getting ready to supercharge and one on I-75. ie, seeing more on the roads
someone is buying and driving them.......

 

[racer26]

(as a SINGLE data point)
drove by Rockville, Maryland, USA service center (~15 miles due north of Washington DC, USA) 3x diff days. each time ~50+ vehicles OUTSIDE and unknown number inside, ~25-30% covered with the canvas type vehicle suits, bunch with white shrink wrap, but differant ones each day, bunch of X models. things are moving in and out. saw 3 Tesla X on trip DC to Florida!!, One in Orlando, one near Tampa probably getting ready to supercharge and one on I-75. ie, seeing more on the roads
someone is buying and driving them.......

How many vehicles does each Tesla store have to move per day on average to make a 25k quarter?

Hint: Its not a very big number.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Bottom line is that even though the production part of the equation is a little muddled due to the AP2 switchover, based on many factors, including Tesla cutting off the deadline for US orders relatively early, the relative calmness in year-end deliveries, and the way VINs are tracking I would be pretty surprised if they didn't meet or exceed guidance on deliveries, with a nice pipeline of orders and cars in production and transit for Q1. We will find out soon enough ....

At the end of Q1/Q2 when the X production delay was bad, and they knew they couldn't meet delivery expectations, even in June when X production was finally sorted out, did Tesla push delivery? I don't remember but it might have been quiet as well. So I would suspect almost a bi-modal likelihood of delivery #, either it's so good that Tesla doesn't need to push, or the AP2 transition knocked it so far off target that Tesla is not even trying to contain the damage. Given all other signs pointing to business as usual (VIN, EM tweeting away), I suspect it's the good scenario, but just want to be prepared for worst case scenario so I don't do something stupid in a panic if things don't pan out as expected this Q.

 

[mrdoubleb]

So appearently we have almost real-time data coming in from Norway (i am using the link posted in the EU deliveries thread) so I pulled the 2016 data for both S&X and did some analysis. Without trying to read too much into this, it does seem like here were no issues with shipments to Europe this month, as registrations in Norway seem pretty even and then accelerating in the last few days.

Quick recap: based on October and November actuals, Europe was at 95% of the Q3 numbers. Norway data may be too specific to one country, but so far in December we have 612 registrations vs 848 in September, so we are unlikely to beat Q3. Remains to be seen if the same trend plays out all over Europe.

On the negative side, I read rumors in other threads at TMC (keep forgetting where) that UK and Japan Q4 may be hurt due to the AP2 HW shortage right around the time when those cars were to be built and shipped.

PS: here is the daily view for Norway registration data. It is clear the quarter-end.rush is happening and we have goods being delivered in quantities, so at least we know shipments to Tilburg went fine, which should be good news for the rest of Europe as well.

View attachment 208186

Final update on this: Norway ended december with 688 cars delivered, which brings Q4 to 981.

Ps: For comparison, Q1-Q3 were 705, 543 and 1252. Note, Q3 saw the first volume deliveries of Model X, so that's above average.

 

[geneclean55]

At the end of Q1/Q2 when the X production delay was bad, and they knew they couldn't meet delivery expectations, even in June when X production was finally sorted out, did Tesla push delivery? I don't remember but it might have been quiet as well. So I would suspect almost a bi-modal likelihood of delivery #, either it's so good that Tesla doesn't need to push, or the AP2 transition knocked it so far off target that Tesla is not even trying to contain the damage. Given all other signs pointing to business as usual (VIN, EM tweeting away), I suspect it's the good scenario, but just want to be prepared for worst case scenario so I don't do something stupid in a panic if things don't pan out as expected this Q.

Tesla was gunning for it in June. Look at their Q2 deliveries press release.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Tesla was gunning for it in June. Look at their Q2 deliveries press release.

This press release? I'm aware of the production push in last 4 weeks in June and lots of cars on trucks, but was there a delivery push such as incentives for people to take delivery in June instead of July? Or was the June production boom too late for delivery so Tesla didn't try to push delivery? Or maybe Tesla didn't push delivery because it's all in FY2016, and difference from Q2 to Q3 didn't concern them that much?