Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[mrdoubleb]

About those 2 threads: with all due respect to our mild mannered moderator, it won't work. What will happen is that people will eventually gravitate towards one of them and the other will die off. My bet is, the least restrictive one ("General Discussion") will survive as the "look it's up! look it's down!" thread will be too sterile and boring.

What we are trying to do here is predict SP based on news, rumor, info TMC members gather, etc. Naturally, such a thread will occasionally digress into a general discussion on the merits and validity of said information, but that's the process of our community talking through stuff, figuring things out. Usually a stricter "SP movements" thread tries to weed that out, which is the very essence of our discussions, so the whole thing eventually gets rejected by the TMC members.

 

[dennis]

FF to ~43.00 mins in this past week's Talking Tesla podcast

 

[Alketi]

And none of those cars were for Q4 delivery. In fact I haven't seen any cars that were ordered in December and delivered in December. This is different from prior quarters when they were pushing to make the number. In those cases California cars ordered in the first week or two of the 3rd month were being delivered in that same month.

That's an interesting point. Can we be sure these weren't delivered to California, which is the only place they'd arrive in time? And, if they weren't, then why run the factory 12-hours/6 days week at the end of the quarter?

 

[geneclean55]

At least there were no debilitating snow storms in major US population areas during last couple weeks of December. So we can be thankful for that.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Elon tweeted: Resolving an Autopilot HW2 bug that shows up when booting from a subzero cold-soak. If that fix works, software will start uploading tmrw.

What does he mean by a subzero cold-soak? Is it just when the car gets wet in below zero conditions or is it some sort of technical term that i am unaware of?

 

[Johan Gustafsson]

Q4 Deliveries

During Q4 and maybe before? Tesla has been producing from body line 1 - Model S and body line 2 - Model X with a total capacity f 3-3500 per week. Final assembly line has less capacity 2400? per week. Maybe some of the reports about closed factory is that body line 1+2 has been closed. That is quite normal due to the extra capacity in body lines compared to final assembly line.

During my factory tour the last day (afternoon) before thanksgiving body line 1+2 was closed but final assembly line was going in full speed.

I think we will see a strong Q4 with +25000 deliveries but I get a little bit worried with the multiple reports about factory closing for 4 weeks.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

What does he mean by a subzero cold-soak? Is it just when the car gets wet in below zero conditions or is it some sort of technical term that i am unaware of?

subzero cold-soak = parked outside all night in sub-zero temperatures (I assume he means sub-zero ℉) such that everything is thoroughly very cold ("cold soaked").

 

[Yggdrasill]

What does he mean by a subzero cold-soak? Is it just when the car gets wet in below zero conditions or is it some sort of technical term that i am unaware of?

Cold-soak is to subject the car to constant low temperatures for many hours, so that the entire car is at the same temperature as it's surroundings. Basically they've set the car in a temperature chamber at say -10F for 10 hours, then they've attempted to boot up the car.

Timing and such is different when a processor is cold, so a typical bug might be that you need to set a delay after a process has finished, so that the process takes sufficient time for some other process to finish. It could also be something related to the radar heating element, like it needs to switch on for 15 minutes before allowing AP to be enabled.

 

[zambono]

Be that as it may, I really hope they don't cave to this pressure unless the SW is perfect. Releasing a buggy AP2 upgrade, hat, God forbid, causes several accidents or results in videos about AP going nuts would do much much more damage to both his credibility, AP itself and he Tesla bottom line.

The latest video of the radar detecting (not predicting) the stopped cars ahead of the lead car was great PR for Tesla.

 

[madodel]

What has happened to our resident shorts?

Please don't say "shorts" three times in the mirror.

 

[madodel]

About those 2 threads: with all due respect to our mild mannered moderator, it won't work. What will happen is that people will eventually gravitate towards one of them and the other will die off. My bet is, the least restrictive one ("General Discussion") will survive as the "look it's up! look it's down!" thread will be too sterile and boring.

What we are trying to do here is predict SP based on news, rumor, info TMC members gather, etc. Naturally, such a thread will occasionally digress into a general discussion on the merits and validity of said information, but that's the process of our community talking through stuff, figuring things out. Usually a stricter "SP movements" thread tries to weed that out, which is the very essence of our discussions, so the whole thing eventually gets rejected by the TMC members.

Should it be named the "squirrel" thread? "Look a nut!", "Where'd I bury that nut again?" "Look a nut!"

 

[AlMc]

What has happened to our resident shorts?

Please don't say "shorts" three times in the mirror.

I may be in the extreme minority on this thread but I want to hear from people who are shorting TSLA. If this thread becomes an echo chamber for the bull thesis I am less informed and have a greater chance of losing hard earned money.

The bear (short) argument is essential to my investing strategies with TSLA. I want to know their theory and hear their evidence. It gives me insight into the 'general short/bear' and if their theories/evidence just does not seem sound/logical I have a better chance of putting more money into TSLA via the way of stock/leaps/calls and making more money. If their theory 'holds water' I may back off on the amount of money in TSLA.

This has worked well for me over the last two years when we have seen fluctuations in the SP of TSLA but essentially have remained fairly range bound.

 

[ggr]

On the Q3 call at the end of October Jason Wheeler stated that there would be 2 weeks without production during Q4. Obviously he knew how many of those weeks had already happened in October. So if it was 2, the factory wasn't shut down this week.

The conclusion doesn't follow. It could have been shut down for one week in October, and planned ahead for another week in December. That's what I think happened.

 

[JRP3]

I may be in the extreme minority on this thread but I want to hear from people who are shorting TSLA. If this thread becomes an echo chamber for the bull thesis I am less informed and have a greater chance of losing hard earned money.

That's why I visit SA and other places, to check in and see if the same tired old bear argument has any merit or any new material. It's not as if it's hard to find negative viewpoints about Tesla on the internet. I don't need to see the same arguments here, which clog up the thread because of the back and forth. This thread, and this board, have really never been an "echo chamber for the bull thesis" because we look at all news and events and evaluate their impact, including many of us reading and reporting on bear theory from other sites, when it seems appropriate. There really are enough varied opinions and viewpoints among the mostly rational bulls here which keeps things in balance. Admittedly there were some specific times when overly bullish posters dominated the thread but they are either no longer here or they've toned it down so I don't understand the need to "balance" with overly bearish commentary. Too much of this thread has been dominated by arguments with one or two specific people, most of which has not been informative in the least, IMO. Maybe they could have their own thread where any who value their opinion could engage with them. Certainly some other posters have created their own threads where they expand on their thoughts in more detail so as not to clog up the Short term thread.

 

[Green Pete]

If this is the case why would anyone that uses a car ~6x per week use TNS or UBER instead of buying their own car? Use your car when you need it and rent it out when not. This is why autonomous cars destroy private ownership is a fantasy.

TNS will destroy public transportation,taxis and maybe up to 1/3 of private car ownership.

No one wants to ride next to psycho strangers on a bus/train when for the same price you can take a private autonomous car.

Only people that rarely use their car will want to give it up and rely solely on mobility services.

At 65 cents a (estimated cost of driving personal ICE car) a mile at an average of 35 miles an hour with 50% occupancy that works out to 11 dollars an hour. If you drive alot it makes more cents to ride on Tesla network.

 

[AlMc]

That's why I visit SA and other places, to check in and see if the same tired old bear argument has any merit or any new material. It's not as if it's hard to find negative viewpoints about Tesla on the internet. I don't need to see the same arguments here, which clog up the thread because of the back and forth. This thread, and this board, have really never been an "echo chamber for the bull thesis" because we look at all news and events and evaluate their impact, including many of us reading and reporting on bear theory from other sites, when it seems appropriate. There really are enough varied opinions and viewpoints among the mostly rational bulls here which keeps things in balance. Admittedly there were some specific times when overly bullish posters dominated the thread but they are either no longer here or they've toned it down so I don't understand the need to "balance" with overly bearish commentary. Too much of this thread has been dominated by arguments with one or two specific people, most of which has not been informative in the least, IMO. Maybe they could have their own thread where any who value their opinion could engage with them. Certainly some other posters have created their own threads where they expand on their thoughts in more detail so as not to clog up the Short term thread.

We are in agreement that hearing both sides is good and that this thread gets clogged up at times with excessive debates by bull and bear alike.
I see no viable 'cure' for this as we have both seen over the years an attempt to have separate threads for different people or topics that relate to investing only to see one thread become the dominant/catch all thread.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

A misc article on doing business in the US and China,
Foxconn to invest $8bn in China LCD plant

 

[JRP3]

I see no viable 'cure' for this as we have both seen over the years an attempt to have separate threads for different people or topics that relate to investing only to see one thread become the dominant/catch all thread.

Actually we do have a number of other threads on investing which have helped to keep specific discussions out of the Short term thread. EU Market, Daily Charts, Demand, Advanced Options, etc. Occasionally there is some bleed over but imagine if all those comments were contained in this thread.

 

[Krugerrand]

During my factory tour the last day (afternoon) before thanksgiving body line 1+2 was closed but final assembly line was going in full speed.

American (November) or Canadian (October) Thanksgiving?

I think we will see a strong Q4 with +25000 deliveries but I get a little bit worried with the multiple reports about factory closing for 4 weeks.

Did not happen. As I already explained, there are too many stalkers....er, enthusiasts...who regularly scope out the factory. That much time with an empty or mostly empty main parking lot and we'd know. We'd have multiple pictures/video of it. Not only that, it would have hit the media like Electrek. We would know without a doubt. Nobody has ever provided any concrete evidence of such. I know, because I've been quite specifically looking and listening for it.

The only 'multiple reports' we've gotten is people repeating what other's have erroneously said. This whole 2 weeks of shutdown in October has been repeated on here since Wheeler said Tesla planned on two weeks of shutdown in Q4. Somebody didn't listen closely enough and misquoted him and ever since then people have been repeating it as if it were fact. And now we've had somebody trying to be a sugar disturber spreading nonsense about a 4 week shutdown. Humbug!

 

[dennis]

The conclusion doesn't follow. It could have been shut down for one week in October, and planned ahead for another week in December. That's what I think happened.

I believe you didn't understand what I was saying. I'll try to be a bit more explicit.

Wheeler made his statement at the end of October. He didn't need to "forecast " how many weeks production would be shut down in October because October had already happened! Since his forecast was for a total of 2 weeks without production in Q4, if both of those had already happened in October then Tesla was not planning any additional shutdowns in November or December.

As pointed out up thread there could have been more or less days of no production in Q4 than what was forecast on the Q3 earnings call. But none of that variance would have been in October since downtime in October was a known fact on 10/26.