Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[racer26]

I'm picking up VIN 173215 on Friday in Houston. There have certainly been higher VINs delivered well before mine.

If you want to delve into VINs a little further check out the spreadsheet: Model S Order & Delivery 2016

The VIN tracking stuff is certainly not foolproof, but more data points allows us to make better predictions with it. For instance - I think we have enough evidence to conclusively say that the factory does not produce VINs sequentially, but it DOES issue them (more or less) sequentially. There will be outliers, such as people who request later delivery, whose VINs get delivered significantly out of sequence.

Based on my reading of the tea leaves, it looks like Model S VINs around 161xxx were being handed out for the start of 4Q Production, and that some of the last ones being delivered in California are in the 177xxx range - that would suggest about 16,000 MS give or take, delivered in 4Q16. Big gaps in the data, though, as most of the TMC users reporting is US-based, and the early part of the quarter all seems to have gone overseas. Some earlier 4Q16 deliveries from the 156-161xxx range would be balanced out by some of the 175-177xxx's being delivered in 1Q17.

 

[myusername]

Yesterday's close seems to have a fair amount of resistance. We've bounced off it a couple times now. I'm expecting us to close mostly flat, somewhere in the 218.50-220 range. If we break much above the 219.53 of yesterday, we could see a decent run - it represents more or less the upper trendline in @myusername's graphs and also the upper bollinger band.

pinned... this is kind of silly... next jump looks like Monday... will review before end of week. It will be nuts if we see a 5th predictable jump.

 

[1kEE]

Been watching NVDA today, with Andrew Left's short activism.... Anyone tempted to buy that dip?

Also remember that guy going after TSLA a while back...

 

[vgrinshpun]

Wow, did not check since the morning, but now Fidelity shows no shares available for shorting:

 

[1kEE]

That's kinda late in the day for that much short borrowing, isn't it?

 

[SBenson]

pinned... this is kind of silly... next jump looks like Monday... will review before end of week. It will be nuts if we see a 5th predictable jump.

Monday is a holiday, just an fyi

 

[austinEV]

Wow, did not check since the morning, but now Fidelity shows no shares available for shorting:

View attachment 208068

and yet we are in the green.... panic time!

 

[myusername]

Monday is a holiday, just an fyi

oh yeah... thanks.

 

[vgrinshpun]

That's kinda late in the day for that much short borrowing, isn't it?

This is snap shot of Tesla trading screen for short selling. All it says that at 11:23am the short selling trading screen showed 426,408 shares available for shorting, and at 3:12 there was no shares available for shorting. When and in what increments this drawdown to 0 happen is not known.

 

[vgrinshpun]

and yet we are in the green.... panic time!

Yea, that was my thought as well...

 

[mmccord]

Been watching NVDA today, with Andrew Left's short activism.... Anyone tempted to buy that dip?

Also remember that guy going after TSLA a while back...

Citron Research on Twitter

He made a great call on TLRD though. It's up 80% since he said to short it in May.

 

[racer26]

Looks like it took 4 tries to get through the resistance at yesterday's close. I don't expect much run up into the close. Maybe 219.99 or 220.01. RSI(14,1d) of 92 and being at the upper 10day bollinger band are pretty strong technicals restraining further movement today.

Anybody have any idea when we should expect to hear the numbers from Tesla? I know they say within 3 days of quarter end.

I'm guessing either during the day Jan 2 or pre-market Jan 3.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Monday is a holiday, just an fyi

If TSLA pattern going to be similar to last week, we will close around 227.5 on Friday (vertical line).

 

[mrdoubleb]

Come on guys, stop jinxing it! Did someone post poetry again?

 

[SBenson]

(Putting citron entirely aside)

I hope NVDA investors understand the risks involved.

1) Musk did a press call on AP 2.0 rollout, that somehow leaked out. In the call Musk mentioned that AMD chips were just as good and it was a very close call.

2) Intel is investing heavily into these machine-learning (AI) chips as well, apparently these chips are less sophisticated but better at parellellisation. Very much sounded like not a big deal and any competent chip maker should be able to break into this space.

3) There are many indications that Tesla is working on custom chips and it's possible that NVDA will be displaced by Tesla's own chips.

4) Didn't Amazon (or was it google?) say they got their own machine-learning data-center chips?

 

[Chop110]

Somebody really wants the SP to finish in the green...

 

[racer26]

If TSLA pattern going to be similar to last week, we will close around 227.5 on Friday (vertical line).

View attachment 208073

That downward red line that collides with the SP does so on the 13th is the overall trend I was talking about.

 

[racer26]

Somebody really wants the SP to finish in the green...

And someone else really wants it to finish in the red. Who wins?

 

[elasalle]

Has the end of day Shorting Pattern mentioned earlier in this forum been neutralized for the past couple of days?

 

[racer26]

Has the end of day Shorting Pattern mentioned earlier in this forum been neutralized for the past couple of days?

Last couple of weeks, really. For today? Its tough to short when you have no ammo.