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One clear indication is if you see Model 3 mule shows up here and there. 9 months from there is what I consider a possible time to start production. I haven't seen one yet and hence, I think July 1st is not going to be met as Elon expected.
3Victoria
Active Member
But EM never expected production to start July 1, he just expected his suppliers to be ready by then. He expects some of them to fail, and need to be replaced. I expect mules will be seen in the new year (absent the interior). Reveal of interior design March or April.
Maybe FF or some related party pressured Jonas to claim the Model 3 will be delayed one year because FF is experiencing some issues with its factory? 
The China-Backed 'Tesla Killer' Just Halted All Plant Construction Plans - Vessel News
The China-Backed 'Tesla Killer' Just Halted All Plant Construction Plans - Vessel News
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No... mules do not need to be shown at this point in time. And you've seen the alpha's running around - Tesla has said that they have final drivetrain design. 2nd, the July 1 deadline is in internal deadline for start of production... they don't expect to actually hit it - it could happen, but a very low chance. Shipping anytime in Q3 is a big win. As far as AJ is concerned, shipping anytime in 2017 means a SP between $242 and $408.
I think if we see $700 million or $1 billion of capex in Q4, and it's the Fremont factory Model 3 production line upgrade going in, people's attitudes towards the Model 3 ship date will change quickly.
dennis
Model S Plaid
Adam Jonas isn't saying that Tesla doesn't plan M3 deliveries in 2017. He is forecasting that they won't achieve it.
Tesla planned volume deliveries for Model X in 2H15 and they spent the capex and hired the workers to achieve this. However they failed to meet their objective until 2H16 with the resultant hit to revenues, profit and SP for at least a year. Jonas is expecting the same thing to happen with M3. Most of us here think he is wrong.
I felt that Adam Jonas put out an extremely positive note if you read between the lines.
In essence, he sees Tesla to be worth on average 242 dollars assuming no model 3 sales in 2017, no contribution from Tesla Energy, and no contribution from Tesla Solar.
He's basically setting tesla up for a big upgrade if any of the above go right. Think back to what happened in February 2014. I think he's actually in Tesla's corner..
Quite favorable to value 2 of the 3 branches of the company at zero and get a price target 20 percent above current levels
In essence, he sees Tesla to be worth on average 242 dollars assuming no model 3 sales in 2017, no contribution from Tesla Energy, and no contribution from Tesla Solar.
He's basically setting tesla up for a big upgrade if any of the above go right. Think back to what happened in February 2014. I think he's actually in Tesla's corner..
Quite favorable to value 2 of the 3 branches of the company at zero and get a price target 20 percent above current levels
Yes, Adam Jonas is hedging his bet and leaving lots of room for the upside, but the note was really quite negative if you believe his views that Model 3 deliveries will be at such low volume and delayed for so long.
That said, my optimism that Tesla will deliver its first Model 3s in 2017 is based upon Elon's new focus on the factory and on production. He previously had this view that his time was best focused upon the products themselves, but between the issues with Model X production and sourcing of parts, plus the very real focus he has had in recent months upon the financials of Tesla and his statements about the machine that builds the machine, I see him switching a tremendous amount of his attention from designing products to overseeing the machine that builds the machine. Not only is he focused on production, he is excited about the possibilities of building increasingly efficient alien dreadnoughts. With Elon and Jason doing a great job on financials lately and Elon excited about production, I would be incredibly surprised if we don't see Model 3s rolling out before the end of 2017, and I bet we'll see them months before the year is over.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
.......and if he doesn't make the deadline.....it won't be the first negative news cycle we have lived through
sundaymorning
Active Member
You may want to research this topic a bit more, late 2017 is looking like a possibility based on sightings, the June/July deadline isn't realistic but late 2017 is quite possible:
Tesla Model 3: rare sightings of prototypes that you might have missed
A video of model 3 sighting
A rare Tesla Model 3 prototype sighting in the wild [Video]
Don't mind presenting the contrarian argument so long as it's supported by data, otherwise just Fud.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Strategically India makes a lot of sense at this point in time, where demand is high coming from both Europe and Asia.
Based on individual income and population, it may be wiser to also place a factory in India, unless the South Koreans can provide some very enticing incentives (similar to Nevada, but I'm inclined to think India will bend over backwards for Tesla).
India also sits between Europe and Asia, making it a logistical plus to transport by rail & sea. China and its 1.5 billion will always be around, the demand lever for China can always be triggered at will with M3. However, with demand being so high at the moment, it doesn't make sense to split 50% of your profits with them. At this point in time China needs Tesla more than Tesla needs China.
Sure, but they did ship the Model X in 2015 and they almost made their overall volume predictions.
I do think AJ is either baiting or punking... someone. Basically, he says that in one of the worse case scenarios that doesn't have unforeseen macro events, Tesla's share price should be much higher. He lays out what a $408 price target means, and the $242 price target has a big fat $0 for Tesla Energy and $0 for Model 3 in 2017. Is he baiting Tesla to show definitive progress sooner, where Musk has to come out and defend the progress? AJ left plenty of room to revise his projections once Tesla shows proof. I think this is a game to set up for 2017 outlook. It is also a back handed swipe at the bears actually... like saying hey, even if you are right that the Model 3 is very late, Tesla is worth more than you think. It is an interesting report, and I think the game that is really being played is not what it appears at first glance.
Research is ongoing. I haven't seen concrete evidence of model 3 mules driving around. And yes, if Tesla is to start delivering Model 3 in q3 next year, I expect the mule around this time.. may be a few more months timeframe.. come Jan, and no sightings of mule, that's one indicator to me that things may get delayed. As a reference, MX mule on a track was leaked in Jan 2015. It took them exactly 9 months to deliver 6 cars. Elon also said at that time the ramp will be exponential in a matter of weeks. And then things kept on delay and now we see credible ramp.
I stay skeptical.
Tesla doesn't have to show any mules. Seriously, they can rent out tracks for closed sessions, including the winter testing grounds. They only show the test mule if they care to share the test mule. At least up until the new production lines start to crank out some production intent vehicles. Again, the Model X start up had very different issues. A fundamentally different level of engineering challenges.
The July date is "if everything goes perfectly", but of course something will go wrong (some supplier will screw up, or some internal department will screw up). The question is how much contingency time will be needed to account for that. I think three months is a fair and respectable amount so I'm expecting Model 3 to do its first deliveries in October 2017, ramping up to full volume in January 2018. Obviously I could be off by months in either direction, but this seems like a likely scenario to me.
I do not believe that the long-term hardcore TSLA bears will give up until the first quarter 2018 quarterly report comes out, and possibly not even then.
I do not believe that the long-term hardcore TSLA bears will give up until the first quarter 2018 quarterly report comes out, and possibly not even then.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Building in India does not get you behind the EU nor the Chinese tariff wall. 10% for Europe and 25% for China.
Indian demand for $35k-$80k vehicles is tiny.
China does not require require a joint venture any longer for a battery cell factory nor building automotive battery packs. In other words Tesla and Panasonic can build a Gigafactory in China without a Chinese joint venture partner.
China does require a Joint Venture for automotive factories, for building electric motors and gliders. Tesla would get 60-70% of the profits but it would require Chinese partner to put up 30%-$40% of the CapEx. If you want to make a global difference you must be in China. If you are not in China you are not making a global difference.
I cannot understand why the x and 3 are being compared in any fashion with respect to launch timing. I mean, I understand we don't have much to go off of since here's little precedent from tesla re launching new cars, but using the x is an extremely poor choice.
The X is not even mentioned in the master plan. It's development was not critical to the future of tesla. Don't get me wrong, it's a great car and I'm glad it exists, but it did not need to be made at all for tesla to survive.
The model 3 is the centerpiece of Master plan and absolutely critical for tesla.
Initial X launch timing was announced when tesla was early in the s days and they had no idea what they were doing re manufacturing. Elon now says he puts his best engineers on improving the line and manufacturing and spends most of his time there. It's safe to say the focus has changed.
The x was built to be a technological marvel and mistakes were made and publicly recognized. The 3 is built for quick manufacturing and getting as many cars in circulation as fast as possible. The differences couldn't be more stark. We are talking about a BMW i8 vs a BMW 328.
The consequence of being late on the x was a pr black eye and more S sales from X reservationists cancellations. When the x was initially announced and timed they severely underestimated s demand because they were so early. They are in a much different place as a company now. The consequence of being late or bad on the 3 is total disaster for the company.
One is a high priced car for early adopters, the other is designed for the masses and with an understanding that the target market has different expectations.
Bottom line - if MS had something to point to or even a reasonable inference from a data point to suggest this degree of lateness, it would have been discussed. They aren't going to play it coy or keep us guessing. More than anything, this analyst wants attention and to be viewed as prescient. An empty statement saying it'll be late just doesn't cut it. Something weird is going on.
The X is not even mentioned in the master plan. It's development was not critical to the future of tesla. Don't get me wrong, it's a great car and I'm glad it exists, but it did not need to be made at all for tesla to survive.
The model 3 is the centerpiece of Master plan and absolutely critical for tesla.
Initial X launch timing was announced when tesla was early in the s days and they had no idea what they were doing re manufacturing. Elon now says he puts his best engineers on improving the line and manufacturing and spends most of his time there. It's safe to say the focus has changed.
The x was built to be a technological marvel and mistakes were made and publicly recognized. The 3 is built for quick manufacturing and getting as many cars in circulation as fast as possible. The differences couldn't be more stark. We are talking about a BMW i8 vs a BMW 328.
The consequence of being late on the x was a pr black eye and more S sales from X reservationists cancellations. When the x was initially announced and timed they severely underestimated s demand because they were so early. They are in a much different place as a company now. The consequence of being late or bad on the 3 is total disaster for the company.
One is a high priced car for early adopters, the other is designed for the masses and with an understanding that the target market has different expectations.
Bottom line - if MS had something to point to or even a reasonable inference from a data point to suggest this degree of lateness, it would have been discussed. They aren't going to play it coy or keep us guessing. More than anything, this analyst wants attention and to be viewed as prescient. An empty statement saying it'll be late just doesn't cut it. Something weird is going on.
3Victoria
Active Member
I agree, the analyst is leaving lots of chances for Tesla to beat his set out expectations. This is "under promise and over deliver" ... not something we are used too! I also agree that the time course of the X, with its fancy bells and whistles, is not a good yardstick for Model 3's production. The 3 appears on track, barring unexpected glitches.
Krugerrand
Meow
The demand is there for such a product. Once people took the time to do the math, it became apparent to many that it didn't work for their situation and they were quite disappointed. For others it did work. That was evident on this forum within days. I don't think Tesla realized how broad the demand was for battery storage. Once they saw the range of the demand, they realized that they needed to make the product even more compelling so that it did make sense for a large segment of the population that was showing such interest.
Analysts have never seen a company like Tesla. You can't ask the right questions about something you don't have any experience with.
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