MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
For perspective (sales of the competition):
December sales for Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf are what you expected
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Here are some data points on Model X deliveries:
* 238 Model X vehicles produced during the final week of 2015
* Model X production ramping up "exponentially"
* This quote from Wall Street Journal a few days ago: "CEO Elon Musk said the company should be at full production of the Model X by the end of March, producing between 1,600 and 1,800 Model S and Model X vehicles per week at the Fremont, Calif., assembly plant."
We also know that a few Model X vehicles are taking up a fair amount of time at Service Centers as issues are addressed.
I see Model X ramp up probably constrained more by the ability of service centers to deal with early production vehicles issues than by the ability to crank out more Model X vehicles per week. As the quality of the product continues to improve, Tesla will gain the confidence to produce more and more of the vehciles each week. Full production of Model X by March? I'd guess that would be about 1,000 units/week in order to start chipping away at the backlog. In the meantime, there are plenty of Model S cars to be built.
chickensevil
Active Member
I mean how many Model S have they sold at 70k? None I have ever talked to managed to avoid taking *any* options.
Even the civic one of the cheapest cars on the American market has a base model that, wait for it, no one buys or in most cases is even sold. Their DX base model doesn't come with some of the most basic of things... Like power windows or cruise control.
So will they have a 35k version? Yes. But how compelling will that no option version be? I too will not be surprised if they don't sell a single 35k car for at least the first year.
stealthology
Member
I wonder if WSJ got that quote directly from Tesla this past Sunday, or if they borrowed the quote from a previous shareholder letter. Anyone have any thoughts? I'd be very happy with ~800-1,000 X's being produced per week by the end of March.
One near term catalyst you didn't mention specifically mention is positive free cash flow. In the last earnings call, when asked about FCF, Deepak said we'd update during the next earnings call, then Elon interjected saying their 'aspiration' is for FCF in Q1. Just logically thinking about this, if they don't quite make FCF in Q1, I would think their chances are very high they will be in Q2. Does anyone think positive FCF could be the fiercest force for a surge to towards and potentially past ATH's this year? Don't the bears know this is a real possibility?
On the last call, Deepak mentioned that expenses will definitely be less in 2016 compared to 2015. Deepak mentioned they are spending a good amount of money in Q4 relating to the X tooling/ramping up. He also mentioned a couple earnings calls ago that positive FCF will coincide with volume production of X.
Regarding FF, apparently the packs are put together by Tesla:
This is Faraday Future’s ridiculous 1,000-horsepower electric concept car | The Verge
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
North Korea setting off underground nukes. Yuan deval, Caixin & Nikkei PMI miss. Futures tanking. I'm calling a general market top and end of the great bull run. AKA bear market. No comment on Tesla as it is clear I can't figure out where it is going.
This is an interesting piece on BBC News on CES: "Ford details hi-tech cars, but without Google" http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-35238639
Like I expected, the chasm between Valley tech and Detroit is way too big. Sure Ford opened engineering office in the Valley but I personally highly doubt any of the traditional car makers have the culture to nurture developing rich software. And if they're trying to pull it off partnering with each other, even worse. Personally I expect them to flop around like a fish out of water for a bit on this subject, and then be forced to adopt third party tech on much worse terms than what they could get today.
Like I expected, the chasm between Valley tech and Detroit is way too big. Sure Ford opened engineering office in the Valley but I personally highly doubt any of the traditional car makers have the culture to nurture developing rich software. And if they're trying to pull it off partnering with each other, even worse. Personally I expect them to flop around like a fish out of water for a bit on this subject, and then be forced to adopt third party tech on much worse terms than what they could get today.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Afaik there is no 2nd gen Volt or Bolt coming on RHD, so I struggle to see this as anything more than a compliance car. I hope the RHD model 3 isn't delayed as much as the S and X, as they'll be a nice gap in those markets for some time.
Grabbed more TSLA at $222.
Been buying on each large drop, may sell this lot (25%) when this is up over $240 within the next few weeks, because I suspect it will be around this level until X really gets out there later in the Q. Then we'll buy on the next drop. Otherwise it joins the rest for our post model 3 long position.
Grabbed more TSLA at $222.
Been buying on each large drop, may sell this lot (25%) when this is up over $240 within the next few weeks, because I suspect it will be around this level until X really gets out there later in the Q. Then we'll buy on the next drop. Otherwise it joins the rest for our post model 3 long position.
Where would those batteries come from?
Unless Tesla begins selling batteries, or China starts exporting their batteries away from their exhaustive domestic EV targets, it's not physically possible for any sort of remotely decent EV ramp from competitors in the US or Europe for at least 2-3 years.
Anecdotally, I'm at 100% of Leaf owners I've talked to who eventually will buy a Model 3 to replace their Leaf. The Bolt will probably get some sales in due to it likely releasing before the Model 3. Past that, they may very well be dead in the water at that price point and no fast charging network. Same with all the other providers, Bolt/Gen2 Leaf owners will be in for a horrible surprise when their 50 kw chademo / combo CCS chargers take over an hour to hit 80% of their vehicle's charge on road trips, assuming they live in one of the two US corridors with acceptable chademo infrastructure. I'm sure that hour charge will be fun in the dealer parking lot, too. Gen II Leaf owners will be in for a horrible surprise when their air-cooled batteries drop tens of miles of range per year. Oh, and hope that they don't run into another single charging owner at those stations either as the vast majority of chademo / combo CCS chargers are a single stall only.
The dealership model is reason enough to stretch for a Model 3 even if the vehicles are equivalent otherwise. I can't wait to get rid of my Leaf even though I love it more than any ICE I've ever owned.
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chickensevil
Active Member
He never responds to this. It has been put out there a number of times that it would take not just a single competitor (eg LG) making a Gigafactory at 50GWh a year but more like 400-500GWh by 2020 to maybe, possibly be an issue for Tesla. And even then it would still have a bigger impact on ICE than it would Tesla.
So the question isn't where is LG's singular Gigafactory, but where is the Gigafactories... Plural. Of course there isn't even the first one... Nevermind multiple... But again, TFTF refuses to comment on this.
mmd
Active Member
I don't want to sound too negative. But according to various posters here, the $35k Model 3 will be so basic that no one will want it. A decently equipped M3 will be $45K+. (According to posters), it may take till 2019 for a decently equipped Model 3 to hit the promised price tag of $35k. Until we know for sure what exactly is being offered at what price points, such speculations may be premature.
Re the "competitor" discussion, I think it's fair to assume that every offering is a compliance car with no real aspirations of taking sales away from tesla until said company is actually breaking ground on a fully national fast charging network. A car that cannot serve as a person's sole car cannot be viewed as mainstream and will never be accepted or sold in large numbers. You simply cannot take on tesla without a charging network - they are different cars with different purposes and the cars won't even be cross shopped. You can't ignore the battery supply issue, either.
setting all that aside, nothing is a tesla competitor until it is a vehicle in the same class. I will never understand why Tftf et al think anything that's electric will compete with anything else that's electric. Just like with an ice, looks, body style, brand name, utility, tech, handling and performance matters. People aren't just doing a cost benefit analysis and choosing the cheapest thing. I'll wait until model 3 styling is released to be certain, but I'm pretty sure it will look nothing like the bolt and it will cater to an entirely different audience.
setting all that aside, nothing is a tesla competitor until it is a vehicle in the same class. I will never understand why Tftf et al think anything that's electric will compete with anything else that's electric. Just like with an ice, looks, body style, brand name, utility, tech, handling and performance matters. People aren't just doing a cost benefit analysis and choosing the cheapest thing. I'll wait until model 3 styling is released to be certain, but I'm pretty sure it will look nothing like the bolt and it will cater to an entirely different audience.
The Bolt price is promoted as $30K after the federal tax credit. So the real price will be $37.5K. This is also clearly a starting price, which already is 2.5K higher than the projected Model 3 price.
I am not negative at all. This is just purely practical question - knowing what we know about the two manufacturers and their products, I just do not see anybody buying Chevy Bolt over Model 3, leave along planned maximum yearly production of 30K Chevy Bolts making any dent in Tesla's Model 3 sales. This line of thinking has zero credibility and no historical precedence as far as I am concerned.
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Exactly. The bolt looks like and will be attempting to steal sales from $15k cars (sonic, fit, etc.). Good luck when starting at $30k post incentives. Meanwhile, I expect the model 3 to look like and steal sales from the German sedans (Audi a4, bmw 335). As a $27,500 car. One is able to leave a 100 mile radius, one is not for all practical purposes. One has Ota updates, one does not. Etc. good luck, bolt.
But, if you look at the Bolt from another angle, it is only $10,000 more than a Leaf, and so much more usable for longer trips. I think it will steal sales from every last 100 mile EV and by a huge amount. My family can use two new cars. One to replace a VW TDI, this may be a Bolt as we need the car by the end of 2016. The Prius we can wait until the Model 3 arrives.
I agree the bolt has a purpose and is at least a step in the right direction re ev transformation. It will compete with and take sales from the leaf and Prius. I just strongly disagree that it will be in competition with the model 3.
In the fire at the supercharger, the police is satisfied that the charging station wasn't malfunctioning. Google Oversetter
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Interesting news. Since Google translate sometimes does a poor job let's just say that the core information is that
1) The local chief of police says that they have concluded their examination of the charging station and they have not uncovered any faults with it. It has now been "freed" (likely meaning released from police "custody") and the chief of police goes on to say that "we wouldn't have released it had we found anything wrong with it".
It doesn't clear the supercharger of having been involved in the fire though. It may have supplied the correct current and voltage to the car, and then a fault in the car caused the fire.
In the video at the bottom of the page, the sheriff says there's still stuff to process on the car. So the conclusion may be days or weeks away. Though Tesla is participating in the investigation, so it may be that they will release some information soon-ish.
In the video at the bottom of the page, the sheriff says there's still stuff to process on the car. So the conclusion may be days or weeks away. Though Tesla is participating in the investigation, so it may be that they will release some information soon-ish.
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