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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I can understand from the purely investor standpoint how this is good news. I'm not too sure it's a good sign for the future if this becomes the "new normal" in Tesla salesrooms as the company becomes more like traditional manufacturers.

On the more hopeful long term side, however, long an investor in Tesla I was amazed when the Model S first came out how beautiful it looked and eventually it emerged with glowing reviews from credible sources. All good except for Top Gear and that totally abortive test drive in the cold by the NY Times. If the future is like the past, it must always be consistent but there are many degrees of freedom. (A no excrement statement if there ever was one.) The M3 may be just as well received in a vastly larger market as the MS. Then buyers will be very impatient and discounts won't be necessary at all.

As a fanboy maybe I'm more optimistic about Elon's ability to snap his fingers and raise any amount of money necessary for manufacturing the M3. We shall see in a week or so whether the Fed will raise rates. My guess is not this September, and the markets seem to be anticipating this (or have priced it in). Furthermore, Mr. Market is paranoid. As others have noted a 0.25% increase in rates may have little effect on demand for funds.

The world is awash in liquidity. The seas also are rising by perhaps as much as 23 meters to their previous elevation, according to some scientists. But that's just a long term concern, right?:eek:
 
It seems to me that Tesla is offering some inventory S75's and 75D's at near S60 and 60D pricing... about 3/4 off the difference between the two. Basically, the COGS is the same since a S60 is identical to a S75 with the same options, but Tesla is cutting off possible upgrade revenue in the future.

EM/TM definitely pulling all demand levers they have for the next two weeks.
If I were in the market for a new S or X this would be a good time to shop.

As others have mentioned I am not sure how this translate to future buyers. Will you be able to 'haggle' over price? Get free upgrades/options?

I will not be surprised to see Q4 demand lever of AP 2.0 hardware, if it looks like TM internal forecasting predicts they will not make 80k guidance number around the end of October
 
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i mean i really like this $200 strike price J 18 TSLA call and i am tempted to buy a ton of these calls but i simply do not care much about time limit of 16 months so most likely i will end up buying another 1000+ shares of TSLA tomorrow
depends on which side of the bed i wake up, really
 
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Tesla is now offering two week old inventory with 50 miles on it for an average 7k discount. They are clearly aiming for a blow out quarter in terms of deliveries. At a cost of roughly $1.5M in profit, you could call it even cheap. Must Tesla wait until after the release of the quarterly report for a capital raise or can they already go for October of the stock price jumps after the release of just the number of deliveries?

COGS = fixed costs + variable costs.

Tesla's fixed costs are much higher compared to variable costs. Higher unit sales reduce COGS/unit. So, although discount has negative effect, reduced COGS/unit will have positive effect on margin.

It will be a blowout quarter both in terms of number of deliveries and profit. It is very likely that we see GAAP profitability too.
 
COGS = fixed costs + variable costs.

Tesla's fixed costs are much higher compared to variable costs. Higher unit sales reduce COGS/unit. So, although discount has negative effect, reduced COGS/unit will have positive effect on margin.

It will be a blowout quarter both in terms of number of deliveries and profit. It is very likely that we see GAAP profitability too.

Possible. On the cost control side I am seeing a delay near me of Service Center openings. Centers in Baltimore, Pittsburgh an Cherry Hill, NJ all delayed.


You could say this is zoning issues or cost saving...Pushing out to Q4 after Cap Raise.
 
EM/TM definitely pulling all demand levers they have for the next two weeks.
If I were in the market for a new S or X this would be a good time to shop.

As others have mentioned I am not sure how this translate to future buyers. Will you be able to 'haggle' over price? Get free upgrades/options?

I will not be surprised to see Q4 demand lever of AP 2.0 hardware, if it looks like TM internal forecasting predicts they will not make 80k guidance number around the end of October

I think the biggest demand lever is the network effect. Imagine the heartburn the other soccer moms get when one of them bring a model X to drop off her kids at school. Same with S.

Car demand is very price elastic. Somewhere I read that every $6k drop in price doubles the demand, please correct me if I am wrong.
 
Neroden et al,

When's the last moment we can own TSLA stock to be certain to be on the record date for the SCTY merger vote?

If my math is right, +3 business days landing past Saturday is the goal, so Wednesday any time of day the stocks can be sold and still voted on the merger, pending approval of the record date by SEC & Tesla, Solar City. Sell Tuesday, and they settle Friday, which could be before the record date if it is Friday (or Saturday). I'm not sure if I'm calculating correctly.

Wednesday is the day v8 software is released for Model S & X, and as the quality of AP software upgrades roll in, we will get a window into how well Tesla is extricating itself from the Israeli trap (the loud breakup with MBLY). While I see this as a positive for Tesla regardless of immediate outcome, I think it's possible that market reaction to the new AP won't come in time to counteract availability of shares to short once the record date is locked in and institutional investors reverse their recalls. But will institutional investors hold onto voting shares until SEC & the companies solidify the record date for sure?
 
Somewhere I read that every $6k drop in price doubles the demand, please correct me if I am wrong.
Seems too good to be true, but if true, Tesla is making more profit and delivering more cars at the same time. The more profit would include some back end lease residuals and over mileage fees, but increased profit now would come from their gross margins too, despite each delivery being thinner margins. This is also great practice at ramping up sales channels for Model 3 sales.
 
[...]
Wednesday is the day v8 software is released for Model S & X, and as the quality of AP software upgrades roll in, we will get a window into how well Tesla is extricating itself from the Israeli trap (the loud breakup with MBLY). While I see this as a positive for Tesla regardless of immediate outcome, I think it's possible that market reaction to the new AP won't come in time to counteract availability of shares to short once the record date is locked in and institutional investors reverse their recalls. But will institutional investors hold onto voting shares until SEC & the companies solidify the record date for sure?
Once the recalled shares become available for shorting again, could this put some downward pressure on the SP again later next week?
So upward pressure till Wednesday, downward afterwards?
 
Neroden et al,

When's the last moment we can own TSLA stock to be certain to be on the record date for the SCTY merger vote?

If my math is right, +3 business days landing past Saturday is the goal, so Wednesday any time of day the stocks can be sold and still voted on the merger, pending approval of the record date by SEC & Tesla, Solar City. Sell Tuesday, and they settle Friday, which could be before the record date if it is Friday (or Saturday). I'm not sure if I'm calculating correctly.

Wednesday is the day v8 software is released for Model S & X, and as the quality of AP software upgrades roll in, we will get a window into how well Tesla is extricating itself from the Israeli trap (the loud breakup with MBLY). While I see this as a positive for Tesla regardless of immediate outcome, I think it's possible that market reaction to the new AP won't come in time to counteract availability of shares to short once the record date is locked in and institutional investors reverse their recalls. But will institutional investors hold onto voting shares until SEC & the companies solidify the record date for sure?

Once the recalled shares become available for shorting again, could this put some downward pressure on the SP again later next week?
So upward pressure till Wednesday, downward afterwards?

Not up on the details of this as much as I probably should be.... but don't the institutions need to hold the recalled shares until they are able to vote with them, and that date may be after the record date.
 
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i mean i really like this $200 strike price J 18 TSLA call and i am tempted to buy a ton of these calls but i simply do not care much about time limit of 16 months so most likely i will end up buying another 1000+ shares of TSLA tomorrow
depends on which side of the bed i wake up, really
Volatility is low right now so I would think buying options right now in a period of low volatility would be a smart move if that helped you make a decision. On the other hand, come November the Jan 2019 options should be available. If you want to buy those you would have to roll your 2018s to 2019s and as you know rolling LEAPS wastes a lot of capital because of the spreads...I personally would get mostly shares and some 2018s right now and once the 2019s are available sell shares for some 2019s depending on the situation at the time.
 

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Possible. On the cost control side I am seeing a delay near me of Service Center openings. Centers in Baltimore, Pittsburgh an Cherry Hill, NJ all delayed.


You could say this is zoning issues or cost saving...Pushing out to Q4 after Cap Raise.
Do we know how many Service Centers are to be built this/next year? What is the cost, both Capex and opex, per Service Center?
 
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Volatility is low right now so I would think buying options right now in a period of low volatility would be a smart move if that helped you make a decision. On the other hand, come November the Jan 2019 options should be available. If you want to buy those you would have to roll your 2018s to 2019s and as you know rolling LEAPS wastes a lot of capital because of the spreads...I personally would get mostly shares and some 2018s right now and once the 2019s are available sell shares for some 2019s depending on the situation at the time.
that is really sound thinking
highly appreciate it. thanks!
 
well I'm pretty sure SCTY merger will go through
i really don't like short term options even though you can make a killing if you're right
my goal is to compound my wealth at a 30 to 50% annualized clip so the common serves my purpose very nicely without taking unnecessary risk
i'm not exactly risk averse but i like probabilities in my favor before i make sizeable bets
 
The world is awash in liquidity. The seas also are rising by perhaps as much as 23 meters to their previous elevation, according to some scientists. But that's just a long term concern, right?:eek:

depends on where you live I think-
West Palm FL already going under but
I'm thinking my place in the Cascades is beach-front someday
 
Not up on the details of this as much as I probably should be.... but don't the institutions need to hold the recalled shares until they are able to vote with them, and that date may be after the record date.

No. See the S-4. It is sufficient to be a holder of shares on the record date. You can sell the shares the day after and you'd still have the right to vote.
 
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