Ulmo
Active Member
Elon seems to tweet things a week late lately, and mostly other articles that have been released rather than new information. Latest is tweet of something that we knew many days ago.
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anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
There's no specific reason. Its's like birds chirping in the morning. Numerous parties do what they do for disparate reasons and market price movements are the result.
I've looked at the stock market long enough to know that nobody should expect the stock to move up and down for any specific reason. If stock price movements were easy to predict, more people would make $ trading.
FWIW, I'm not personally expecting any significant upward move in the stock until the second half of 2017, when Wall Street will notice that Model 3 is close enough to on schedule, when the Silevo factory will actually be producing panels, etc. I mean, fluctuations could happen before then, but I'm not expecting them. This is not advice.
I personally think the stock prices will remain depressed as long as the SCTY merger remains 'up in the air'. And will probably drop after the merger is finalized as shorts pile back in. I'm not really expecting good quarterly numbers until Q4 (so, January), either. I could be surprised, but this is my expectation.
I personally think the stock prices will remain depressed as long as the SCTY merger remains 'up in the air'. And will probably drop after the merger is finalized as shorts pile back in. I'm not really expecting good quarterly numbers until Q4 (so, January), either. I could be surprised, but this is my expectation.
This is increasingly my expectation. The market gives so little weight to TM plans and guidance at this point, it feels like the stock price will be treading water until they simply cannot ignore it anymore. That would be when they are selling M3's.
I agree, M3 is the stock driver, end of story. Other upcoming news is all potentially negative or neutral: units shipped, gigafactory progress or lack thereof (ties in with M3 expectations), v8.0 (don't expect too much), AP 2.0 (which I don't expect until later next year anyways), SCTY acquisition, and endless (probably bad) SCTY news going forward.
Nothing good is going to happen until people feel positive M3 news is around the corner. Note that means BEFORE good M3 news hits the street. How much before will probably depend on how risky the overall market feels at the time.
Nothing good is going to happen until people feel positive M3 news is around the corner. Note that means BEFORE good M3 news hits the street. How much before will probably depend on how risky the overall market feels at the time.
racer26
Active Member
I agree with all of you, but 2% is a pretty sizable move for a no news day. Usually we only see moves like this when there is some news anticipated. This is a bigger move right now than what P100D caused last week.
Some rumors I heard over the weekend:
Tesla is shipping some non custom-build, inventory Model S 75 to China and running a special promotion on them. The deal is you get the 75 battery with the price of a 60, basically an outright discount on the S75. These cars are neither showroom cars nor loaners. Brand new. The promotion is not publicized but people are getting them if they ask the sales persons. Delivery time shortens to 1 month compared to customized orders of about 2-3 months.
Tesla is shipping some non custom-build, inventory Model S 75 to China and running a special promotion on them. The deal is you get the 75 battery with the price of a 60, basically an outright discount on the S75. These cars are neither showroom cars nor loaners. Brand new. The promotion is not publicized but people are getting them if they ask the sales persons. Delivery time shortens to 1 month compared to customized orders of about 2-3 months.
Why would prospective (as of June 30, 2016) elimination of Resale VG lead to lowering GAAP revenue and GM (given Direct Lease / Purchase ratio assumed the same)?
I think it means natural demand is not keeping up with production capacity.
I generally agree with @neroden and @austinEV's posts above, but there are quite a few wildcards in the mix. A few examples:
(1) TE sales will begin ramping at some point in 2017 -- could be Q1 but could be later in the year.
(2) If Tesla releases Beta Model 3 prototypes in a timeframe that shows they remain on schedule for a late 2017 launch, that could result in a bump to the SP. Even more so if they release a handful of Betas for test drives in a few major markets or have them go on tour as they did with Model S First look at the new Tesla Model S Beta electric car.
(3) Potential for higher or lower than expected sales of S/X in new markets (e.g., Korea).
(1) TE sales will begin ramping at some point in 2017 -- could be Q1 but could be later in the year.
(2) If Tesla releases Beta Model 3 prototypes in a timeframe that shows they remain on schedule for a late 2017 launch, that could result in a bump to the SP. Even more so if they release a handful of Betas for test drives in a few major markets or have them go on tour as they did with Model S First look at the new Tesla Model S Beta electric car.
(3) Potential for higher or lower than expected sales of S/X in new markets (e.g., Korea).
larmor
Active Member
May be... Market might be more interested sales of high end units, since that is a marker for execution and future profitability...
dc_h
Active Member
But why would they sell these cars under the counter? If Tesla needs to boost demand it makes no sense not to publish special sale.
Looks bad if they publicizes it. And all the buyers who bought 75 would be asking for refunds and no one will pay the upgrade fee in the future.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
This rumor makes zero sense.
If the promotion is not publicized, how would people know to ask the sales people?
A potential customer comes in and talks with the salesperson, after a while, the potential customer asks "any discount available?" Then the salesperson tells this under the counter promotion. This is just a simple, thousands year old practice of haggle. Only this time happening to Tesla in China.
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