Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Papafox]

The problem is that most people don't know what "autopilot" does in an airplane. They will assume that autopilot means completely automatic driving, which is not the case.

Rather than change the name from "autopilot" to something else, I think it is better if Tesla educates the public by saying something such as "There are no autonomous airliners in operation today, only jets with autopilots that are carefully monitored and sometimes overridden by flight crews. The Tesla autopilot is similar, it is a tool available to lighten the workload of driving but it still requires the driver's attention if the trip is to be conducted safely."

 

[MitchJi]

Let's hope not. I sold some $220,00 puts last week. I knew it would be a risky trade, but didn't thought that it would linger around the $220,00 for so long.

But I am happy for every second that it's above the $220,00!

I hope they expired today? If so congratulations! Whew! You just made it!

 

[dakh]

Nice drop in after hours. I really hope Elon sticks to his word and makes the announcement "this week", and that it's good.

I keep reading all these posts that imply that Elon's Master Plan update or some other similar action would help the stock but that makes no sense to me. The stock is already priced with very substantial future growth expectation. Why would it move? We know this company has high potential, the stock is priced that way. It's cool and all but let's not forget that growth is already priced in. Unless there's new evidence at play that improves the chances of high growth or makes the good scenario growth target higher, there's no reason for stock to move.

 

[tanner]

I keep reading all these posts that imply that Elon's Master Plan update or some other similar action would help the stock but that makes no sense to me. The stock is already priced with very substantial future growth expectation. Why would it move? We know this company has high potential, the stock is priced that way. It's cool and all but let's not forget that growth is already priced in. Unless there's new evidence at play that improves the chances of high growth or makes the good scenario growth target higher, there's no reason for stock to move.

I don't think you get the gravity of the "master plan" - here's part 1, keep in mind this was published in 2006 before Tesla even drafted the design of the Model S and before the first Roadsters even rolled out: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)

We're just now, ten years later, at the point to where the "master plan" is almost complete. Based on part 1, he should announce some pretty high goals/expectations and give general guidance for the next ten years. How is that already priced in? Hell, he could even make mention of potential autonomous ride sharing, I know that would make one analyst incredibly happy.

 

[dakh]

Nah, I understand it well enough, I just don't think the expectation that when it's published it'll move the stock is realistic. It might if there's something new in it that like I mentioned before changes the investment outcome. I expect it'll be about creating sustainable energy production and transportation system with a few more details filled in. Given the reaction to SCTY merger proposal folks don't want to think that far into the future and are much more focused on short to medium term.

 

[tander]

Nah, I understand it well enough, I just don't think the expectation that when it's published it'll move the stock is realistic. It might if there's something new in it that like I mentioned before changes the investment outcome. I expect it'll be about creating sustainable energy production and transportation system with a few more details filled in. Given the reaction to SCTY merger proposal folks don't want to think that far into the future and are much more focused on short to medium term.

If they pair it with the merger approval it seems like that would be significant. And it might be enough for some of the analysts to upgrade.

 

[tanner]

Nah, I understand it well enough, I just don't think the expectation that when it's published it'll move the stock is realistic. It might if there's something new in it that like I mentioned before changes the investment outcome. I expect it'll be about creating sustainable energy production and transportation system with a few more details filled in. Given the reaction to SCTY merger proposal folks don't want to think that far into the future and are much more focused on short to medium term.

I'd be willing to bet it goes as far into the future though, it's a "master plan", not guarterly guidance.

 

[mmd]

Tesla.com homepage is showing a video of Model X.

I have been waiting for this moment. To me this effectively means production ramp of X is done-done.

Any word on current weekly production rate in the weekly meetings with owners?
I think, the video is there for the last few days. Could also mean the demand ramp is done-done

 

[30seconds]

If they pair it with the merger approval it seems like that would be significant. And it might be enough for some of the analysts to upgrade.

Given that tesla energy revenues isn't meaningfully valued by the analysts this could be a very good reason to change valuation models

 

[TMSE]

This stuff is already baked into the stock price and then some. The merger should not make such refinancing any more costly than current expectations.

If you think SolarCity is getting a higher valuation (relative to Tesla) than it should, then you should sell your Tesla shares and buy SolarCity instead. That way dilution works in your favor.

I am wondering if SolarCity acquisition is imposing invisible boat anchor for TSLA because of all equity offer. Let's say, if TSLA is ought to double from where it is now, for whatever reason, it would imply approximate doubling of SCTY too, before deal closure.

 

[SebastianR]

On whether "Autopilot" gives people the wrong idea. Probably yes. I think it would be funny if Tesla, in a huff, just renamed it "handy driving feature" and be done. Something long and boring to make worse headlines. That way people wouldn't bring in misconceptions (Autopilot=take a nap) and the media wouldn't have as good a story.

I think we all got it backwards: Mercedes is perfectly fine getting away with the marketing claim that their new e-class is "self-driving" (which in my mind is a much more dangerous claim than having an autopilot!). Why? Simple: their system is not as good as the Tesla Autopilot. So no matter what the marketing says, no sane person would hand the wheel to the e-class and take a nap.

The "problem" with the Tesla Autopilot is, that it is so bloody good. If it wouldn't be, nobody would trust it so much and we wouldn't be where we are. Actions speak louder than words and no matter what people say, write or warn about the autopilot, drivers experiencing it, trust it "too much" and some seem to do stupid things.

Bottom line for me is: We will need to ride this out. The technology leader will always get the most criticism about technology misuse, no matter what we name the feature, the problem will persist in the media. If we name it differently they will find another restriction to call for. So having the focus on the name is not bad at all. Other than that, all we can (and should) do is to educate, educate and educate. (Since I certainly don't want more regulation / restriction or - heaven forbid - a "autopilot drivers license" focussing on the dangers of autopilot equipped cars...)

 

[VanE]

Tomorrow!

 

[MitchJi]

Tomorrow!

Before Monday (by Saturday or Sunday).

 

[Krugerrand]

The problem is that most people don't know what "autopilot" does in an airplane. They will assume that autopilot means completely automatic driving, which is not the case.

In another thread someone posted there were 2 options;

A) educate people
B) rename AP

They then went on to imply that B) was the best and frankly only way for Tesla to have a chance at success on this topic.

Nonsense!

Purposely dumbing down anything (and everything, which we have historically chosen to do) is, well, dumb, because it makes us lazy learners and...dumb.

While education is more time consuming (and frustrating) it is the best choice for mankind long term.

 

[Subhuman]

In another thread someone posted there were 2 options;

A) educate people
B) rename AP

I got it...how about Ottopilot

 

[madodel]

I got it...how about Ottopilot

View attachment 185558

With Elon Musk's sense of humour this might be in play. You should Tweet this to him.

 

[EinSV]

I agree that there is no evidence that there WILL be s problem delivering 50% more vehicles in H2 then H1

I am over my concerns that there is demand for >2,000 vehicles per week and that the factory can turn out > 2,000
Vehicles per week in H2. We have reports that confirm these numbers.

The SCs that are currently overtaxed now with routine service and repairs COULD have issues delivery these vehicles. My local ( your local SC Vginsphun as well) appears on two recent visits to be maxed out.
My concerns could be unfounded. There are several solutions people have suggested. Put off regular service....there is already 6 week waits at many facilities. Go 24/7...Need more service techs and space to house the vehicles....possible.

So, yes, it is quite possible but until we see it we are taking it on faith.

Please feel free to point out my baseless concerns when 50k vehicles are delivered in H2.

Thought you might be interested in this post from Jon McNeill in one of the other forums re increasing number of service centers ....

Anyone else extremely frustrated with getting Model S in for service?

 

[SunCatcher]

I got it...how about Ottopilot

View attachment 185558

Inspired. Or, how about another twist; Otterpilot. You definitely don't want to be distracted when this little guy has the controls;

 

[FredTMC]

Before Monday (by Saturday or Sunday).

For Master Plan 2?

 

[MitchJi]

For Master Plan 2?

We think so.