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We are steadily inching up in pre-market trading. I think if we can open above $205.95 (high on 6/22, after the gap down on SolarCity offer) TSLA has a chance to close the gap this week - to $218.81.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I believe that GF Cell production has started. Elon talked about seeing cells coming off the line at the speed of a machine gun. When they reach that point why would they stop?
OTOH the kWh of the TE Products will increase by at least 7% when they start using the new cells. So what's happening? Waiting for the giga-party?
In any case, I think Julian is probably correct. I think that the party will be eye opening and I expect a big Q3 for TE.
OTOH the kWh of the TE Products will increase by at least 7% when they start using the new cells. So what's happening? Waiting for the giga-party?
In any case, I think Julian is probably correct. I think that the party will be eye opening and I expect a big Q3 for TE.
Only after the store "meet and greet" and receiving a preliminary price. The future customer receiving a home sales call will be a much better prospect compared to today.
A successful Tesla solar/storage strategy does seem to require a successful model 3 launch and store growth. Everything important at Tesla leads back to the model 3.
Electracity, I feel like you have better insight in this type of stuff than me. So I ask... Why do you think anyone be interested in a Solar+Battery system from Tesla, or anyone else for that matter, with a price of 35K (Musk's prediction)? Electricity is dirt cheap in much of US and from my understanding it's comparably priced in rest of the world. What's the point of a 35K expense? Showoff? Cachet? It can't possibly be a valid economic reason, can it?
I know of a bunch of model-3 reservation holders. Absolutely none of them would even remotely consider a fancy solar+battery system, let alone at a 35K price. Pretty much everyone is satisfied with grid electricity to a point nobody ever even thinks about it. The rare few Earth conscious folk take solace in the fact that grid itself will switch to Solar over time. Hence no need to proactively do anything.
Others please feel free to chime in as well. Genuine question.
Gerardf
Active Member
I interpreted it more as a prediction for the future production rate.
The Tesla-SolarCity deal explained through some amazing quotes by Elon Musk
Elon Musk: Our engineering team has worked very closely with Panasonic to make dramatic improvements to the cell manufacturing efficiency. I think we’re probably approaching 3x the efficiency of the best plant in the world. I think that’s pretty good. Cells will be going through that thing like bullets from a machine gun. In fact, the exit rate of cells will be faster than bullets from a machine gun.
Having seen a machine running is something different than producing cells in the GF that are ready to be installed in packs and cars.
I didn't notice this posted here. Elon tweated this article:
‘Tesla Solar’ Wants to Be the Apple Store for Electricity
I was unhappy with Elon when he announced the SCTY deal. But when I asked myself why, it was because the SP went down. Had the market applauded and had the SP gone up, I would have been cheering and calling Elon a genius instead of doubting him. As others have said, Elon knows far more about SCTY than we do. If he thinks it can take Tesla from a $700 Billion company to a $1 Trillion company, then I have to trust him. Lord knows I can't wait to make so much money on TSLA that I can retire EARLY!
‘Tesla Solar’ Wants to Be the Apple Store for Electricity
I was unhappy with Elon when he announced the SCTY deal. But when I asked myself why, it was because the SP went down. Had the market applauded and had the SP gone up, I would have been cheering and calling Elon a genius instead of doubting him. As others have said, Elon knows far more about SCTY than we do. If he thinks it can take Tesla from a $700 Billion company to a $1 Trillion company, then I have to trust him. Lord knows I can't wait to make so much money on TSLA that I can retire EARLY!
Around 15 cents or so.
More importantly a few people that went solar that I know claim that they got a system installed for about 6K to 7K (after tax credits, state rebates, etc) and they claim a payback period of 5 to 7 years.
35K just feels ridiculously, abnormally high for anyone to bother.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
My system was about $30K before rebates, about a 9 year payback time. $13K after tax credits. Don't forget that Tesla would get the pre-credit price, consumer effectively pays the after tax credit price.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I have a feel that when he's talking about how they would potentially have another $35k of business from a $35k Model 3 buyer, from them also getting solar+battery, he's not thinking cash/upfront purchase of the solar+storage system but rather someting very close to or similar to SCTY's current offering; some sort of PPA/lease scheme with very little or no money down and some kind of guarantee of a future "low" electricity bill for 15-20-25 years (perhaps even some kind of guarantee that it will always be cheaper than from the traditional utility). Elon seems to care about and take pride in this kind of reasoning, think about how much time he spent dwelling on the guaranteed buy-back value of leased Model S (always less value loss than a Mercedes S-class) and how he would personally guarantee it.
I think sometimes he understands the mindset of "the masses" better than some here on this board, typical Model S/X buyers who are both generally more financially well off as well as "savvy" than the average person (not trying to be condecending here, just stating a likely fact).
Very true. Although, in many parts of the country amortized solar now makes economic sense, there's plenty of hurdles that prevent the adoption from becoming widespread. SolarCity was out to eliminate the biggest of those hurdles, the upfront investment. Most of the rest of the challenges are primarily the result of lack of consumer awareness.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Fall of 2014. The South Carolina state tax credit is still available. We don't have SCTY here but with the new state law passed last year Vivint and Sunrun are setting up shop.
As one data point (albeit an important one), on June 1 in Northern California PG&E just raised its standard "Tier 3" rates -- for highest use per month -- to $0.39999/kWh. Over 50% of my average bill is based on Tier 3 charges and I don't have air conditioning. Tier 2 (the next rate down) is $0.24/kWh and the base rate is $0.18/kWh.
http://www.pge.com/tariffs/tm2/pdf/ELEC_SCHEDS_E-1.pdf
For Southern California Edison, the new Tier 3 rates are $0.29/kWh, Tier 2 rates are $0.23/kWh and the base rate is $0.16.
So there are a ton of people in both Northern and Southern California who can immediately save substantial amounts of money by switching to rooftop solar to at least avoid paying the substantial premium for Tier 2 and Tier 3 rates.
And Tesla S/3/X customers are likely to be especially prolific purchasers of solar systems.
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Another thing to consider in Q2 profitability calculations is the ZEV factor. While California has always been a good % of deliveries, there are a lot of new Model X being delivered in California for the quarter. Couple that with a very large potential CARB offset needed by a certain German automaker and here may be a material ZEV revenue (and 100% profit) number to consider for Q2.
Perfectlogic
Member
I wonder why this state with very favorable net metering terms and where residential solar is more popular than anywhere else in the US, the utilities are now forced to increase rates while many other states are decreasing their rates. What a mystery. I'm sure the solution is more residential solar.
You have been polluting too many other threads with your nonsense. I see no reason to reply further. Good luck with your short position. Have a nice week.
mutle
Member
A quick Google search showed that the amount of residential solar in California is around 1/3 of the Solar production and utility-scale Solar is around 7.5% of the total generated power. No amount of perfect logic would lead anyone to conclude that residential solar is the reason behind rate increases and not other factors, like rising fossil fuel prices for example.
Perfectlogic
Member
Didn't know only bullish posts were allowed here, my bad. Good luck recouping some of your SCTY losses.
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