Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[hockeythug]

Well now......

 

[Jayjs20]

Well. Too bad my Robinhood account doesn't do AH. I'd like to get myself some of that.

 

[SBenson]

Tesla offering to buy SolarCity - $26.5 to $28.5

Add: Source SolarCity - Other

 

[austinEV]

Anyone else get a folder from Tesla today with a graphic of the Model Ξ and a "THANK YOU FOR ORDERING A MODEL 3.
ELON"View attachment 182045

Tell me that came as pre-sorted US mail... (My mean, cost cutting stock holder hat is on)

 

[austinEV]

Tesla offering to buy SolarCity - $26.5 to $28.5

oh god no. "Calm before something" indeed.

 

[MartinAustin]

Tesla offering to buy SolarCity - $26.5 to $28.5

Isn't this what some government whiny-boys were saying was a possibility? Tesla did a public offering, got a bunch of cash, and are now buying Solar City. I think the regulator-types were worried that the money would be diverted to Solar City. Well this sorta takes care of that

 

[yesla]

Tesla offering to buy SolarCity - $26.5 to $28.5

Source?

 

[SBenson]

Tesla offering to buy SolarCity - $26.5 to $28.5

Source: SolarCity - Other

 

[hoang51]

So this is why TSLA just sank after hours that they're gobbling up SCTY. I don't know if it's wise to add more to TSLA after hours...

 

[Jeff N]

CNBC:

SolarCity stock soars 26% on Tesla acquisition bid

 

[MitchJi]

Well... on the conservative side, I'm thinking that TE really isn't a story for 2016. Ideally, Tesla can max out Panasonic's capacity out of Japan for vehicles, and then TE is stuck sourcing cells at "normal" volume cost from the likes of LG and Samsung SDI. Only if Tesla cannot make enough vehicles would there be leftovers for TE at the $125-$150/kWh cell cost. Let's say they manage to ship 100 MWh this year. (2x the size of the big Hawaii project). Priced at $470/kWh, say they source the cells at $300/kWh, add 30% for the pack structure, BMS, etc. That's $390/kWh in costs. Say another $20/kWh in overhead, so $60/kWh in profit margin. At 100 MWh, that's $6 million in profit. That's just not all that much money, even if you double or triple that.

Next year, however, as the pilot phase of the Gigafactory comes online, there will be a mix of TE and vehicle cells. The first 3-4 months of production is likely all TE. That could be as much as 2-3 GWh of just TE cells at very, very low cost. Let's say the TE COGS all in price is $165/kWh at that point. If they sell it for the original $250/kWh price, that's > 50% margin. 1 GWh would be $85 million. 3 GWh would be $255 million. Of course, Tesla could sell at much higher than $250/kWh.

Basically, whatever is happening with TE in 2016 is a small appetizer to what is likely to happen in 2017.

I think I understand what you think, which seems reasonable to me:
1. Tesla will use 100% of Panasonic's capacity for cars, now through the end of 2016.
2. GF cell production will not start until very late Q4.
3. Those factors will combine to reduce profits in 2016 to insignificant levels.
I am more optimistic than that. I think that they will have GF cell production for at least 6-8 weeks in Q4.

I think that based on EM's and JB's assurances (very confident) that that cell production will be permanently available for cars.

I also think that Phase 1 cell production will be on the order of 6-12 GWh. 6 GWh equals one eighth (60-70% confident) of the original plan, possibly 12 GWh equals x2.

I also believe (very confident), that the custom cell production equipment they are designing and building for Phase 1, will be much faster and cheaper to produce for Phase's 2-8.

But I think we both agree that Q1 2017 should be big for TE, enough to have a substantial impact on the SP? Probably enough to shock the market?

 

[Jayjs20]

Can someone explain why buying solarcity would bring down TSLA's SP? Wouldn't it make them a bigger and better equipped company?

 

[trils0n]

Not thrilled with Tesla buying Solar City. I can't see any way that is a good acquisition.

 

[yesla]

Thanks SBenson.

How fast will shorts cover now? hahahahaha

But yea... if it does go through, then... TSLA is up against even more stubborn incumbents on top of the regulations they currently deal with. I guess its a more effective use of the legal team....

 

[Xpert]

So this is why TSLA just sank after hours that they're gobbling up SCTY. I don't know if it's wise to add more to TSLA after hours...

This is our chance,I hope Tsla drops more tomorrow so i can jump in. Not for the faint of hearts

 

[hockeythug]

Makes complete sense to me and is an no brainer. I always assumed Musk was basically running that outfit anyways.

 

[SBenson]

Tesla blog post

Tesla Makes Offer to Acquire SolarCity

 

[austinEV]

Can someone explain why buying solarcity would bring down TSLA's SP? Wouldn't it make them a bigger and better equipped company?

Why buy them? Feels like Elon bailing them out or wanting to take control. TSLA has a clear path to profitability and large market share. SCTY, not so clear. That is why I didn't own any.

 

[flankspeed8]

Can someone explain why buying solarcity would bring down TSLA's SP? Wouldn't it make them a bigger and better equipped company?

debt, lack of profitability, long term risk, diversion of resources, appearance of a bail out....etc. There is a reason the market has driven SCTY SP down...,

 

[pGo]

The fear I had is being realized here. But the trust I had on Elon to focus sharply on Tesla is gone. The scty play brings back his thought that he won't let any of his company die. At the expense of what? Please don't tell me there is synergy.