Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[gene]

An MX scheduled for end of July delivery on the East coast, got moved to delivery next week! Tesla going for it, it seems.

I received my Model S on March 31st, 2013. I recall the huge effort by my delivery consultant to be sure my car arrived by that last day of 1Q, 2013. You all remember the results of the following earnings report. We may be having a bit of a de ja vioux

 

[Johan]

de ja vioux

Now where have I heard that before...?

 

[esk8mw]

I received my Model S on March 31st, 2013. I recall the huge effort by my delivery consultant to be sure my car arrived by that last day of 1Q, 2013. You all remember the results of the following earnings report. We may be having a bit of a de ja vioux

Exactly. I'm noticing lots of truck deliveries mentioned in the X thread. Also, many VINs in the 9,000+ range due for end of June deliveries (I know they aren't sequential but it provides good directional guidance). Lots of talk about upping production, 2k/week+, etc. And they are clearly trying to juice the delivery numbers. Add in the fact that 2Q was likely a quarter where they could still hold off on major M3 capex and we could have all the makings of a massive earnings report, possibly CF positive. Oh yeah, and things like China factory partner rumor, GF timing accelerated, S production increasing to 1500/week, X ramp issues apparently resolved (cars completing entire production in a week and being delivered with less than a day of QC)....

Do your own research, etc., but I am positioning myself for a nice move to the upside from the beginning of July (deliveries announced) through Q2 ER. To me, the writing seems to be on the wall.

 

[geneclean55]

I received my Model S on March 31st, 2013. I recall the huge effort by my delivery consultant to be sure my car arrived by that last day of 1Q, 2013. You all remember the results of the following earnings report. We may be having a bit of a de ja vioux

Apparently they also flew(!) 15 MX to Denmark to meet end of quarter. This was to beat some kind of tax increase occurring in that country after June. But nice effort, none the less!

 

[DrJohnM]

but charging stations are not necessary. since people are supposed to charge at home. so unlike ICE where number of cars has direct correlation with gas pump stations, charging station demand does not necessarily scale the same way.

And until charging stations are widely adopted, the marketable audience for EV is limited to those who own a house.

Electricity is everywhere. You do not need to own a house to make this work, you just need to have a government that will support the infrastructure, for example, I understand that there are power outlets in some cold locations (Alaska) that are used to keep engine blocks warm, built into parking meters - if they can do that for ICEs, I am sure that the same can be done for EVs. In the Netherlands, you can request that a charging point is installed outside on the street to charge your car. The power company is obliged to provide - but considering there is street lighting, they just tap into the power line - QED. Just like hotels provide WiFi otherwise they don't get the customer, they will also provide charging points. All it needs is a will to make it happen. The infrastructure (electricity) is there - you just need the socket.

 

[austinEV]

but charging stations are not necessary. since people are supposed to charge at home. so unlike ICE where number of cars has direct correlation with gas pump stations, charging station demand does not necessarily scale the same way.

And until charging stations are widely adopted, the marketable audience for EV is limited to those who own a house.

I rent in a high rise and my only car is a Tesla. The apartment and my work has l2 chargers. It isn't as convenient as a home charger, but it gets the job done. My building has like 5 teslas and a few other EV's and PHEV. They are due to add some more chargers soon since we requested it. It's not like its this impossible barrier.

 

[colettimj]

Electricity is everywhere. You do not need to own a house to make this work, you just need to have a government that will support the infrastructure, for example, I understand that there are power outlets in some cold locations (Alaska) that are used to keep engine blocks warm, built into parking meters - if they can do that for ICEs, I am sure that the same can be done for EVs. In the Netherlands, you can request that a charging point is installed outside on the street to charge your car. The power company is obliged to provide - but considering there is street lighting, they just tap into the power line - QED. Just like hotels provide WiFi otherwise they don't get the customer, they will also provide charging points. All it needs is a will to make it happen. The infrastructure (electricity) is there - you just need the socket.

You can also submit a request for creation of an electric vehicle parking space in front of your property in Philadelphia. The space, however, is not reserved for just your use (PDF application form). Philly isn't exactly known for being on the cutting edge so I would assume other cities have similar programs.

 

[AudubonB]

No they don't.

With you and all of your cohorts telling people not to buy Tesla they are production constrained.

Tesla has built great brand equity, number #10 in the automotive world according a recent study by a Wall Street firm knocking VW and Lexus out of the top 10 with virtually zero paid marketing and no paid tv/radio/print commercials.

Let GM sell to the electric buyers in the boonies.

Tesla has never planned nor ever plans to own 100% of the BEV market.

Let others get the least profitable and most expensive to service sales.

Tesla can just cherry pick the lowest lying fruit. At least for the foreseeable future.

Rob - You make some great contributions to this thread and the forum in general; your thesis here is one I (most understandably, I'm sure) cannot but vehemently disagree with, to the point of having to break my summer time-off and respond.

First, as coming from someone from the LA area, it absolutely reverberates of an "I've got mine, you don't matter" attitude. Quite unpleasant.

Second, because I agree with one of your points: low-hanging fruit should be picked. And there is such a great cornucopia of available sales....in unharvested territories... that the cost/reward benefits for Tesla argue for their continued expansion into such areas, even if at the price of letting established regions coast for a period. For Tesla to improve their presence in Neroden-country like upstate NY, or for less-dense NoAm sites like the midwest or - horrors - Anchorage (as proxy for Alaska - we're used to that) - is for them to absolutely, positively propagate their written goal of advancing the cause of EVs. Adding a Service Center in the LA Basin? Far, far less potent - and therefore, inappropriate use of scarce resources (their capital, time and workforce).

Now back to time out. See y'all in late autumn.

 

[Lessmog]

Now back to time out. See y'all in late autumn.

Ahh, summer hibernation! Don't be a bear and don't forget to shut your eyes from time to time.

 

[Johan]

Rob - You make some great contributions to this thread and the forum in general; your thesis here is one I (most understandably, I'm sure) cannot but vehemently disagree with, to the point of having to break my summer time-off and respond.

First, as coming from someone from the LA area, it absolutely reverberates of an "I've got mine, you don't matter" attitude. Quite unpleasant.

Second, because I agree with one of your points: low-hanging fruit should be picked. And there is such a great cornucopia of available sales....in unharvested territories... that the cost/reward benefits for Tesla argue for their continued expansion into such areas, even if at the price of letting established regions coast for a period. For Tesla to improve their presence in Neroden-country like upstate NY, or for less-dense NoAm sites like the midwest or - horrors - Anchorage (as proxy for Alaska - we're used to that) - is for them to absolutely, positively propagate their written goal of advancing the cause of EVs. Adding a Service Center in the LA Basin? Far, far less potent - and therefore, inappropriate use of scarce resources (their capital, time and workforce).

Now back to time out. See y'all in late autumn.

Good to see you Audie. You make an argument for investors to think as investors and not confuse that with their customer role, especially the wish of people in less accessible locations to sooner be able to become customers/owners, yet you make this exact argument yourself.

 

[geneclean55]

Vin #107XX MX finishes production this weekend and (hopefully) gets delivered next week in San Rafael CA.

 

[austinEV]

Rob - You make some great contributions to this thread and the forum in general; your thesis here is one I (most understandably, I'm sure) cannot but vehemently disagree with, to the point of having to break my summer time-off and respond.

First, as coming from someone from the LA area, it absolutely reverberates of an "I've got mine, you don't matter" attitude. Quite unpleasant.

Second, because I agree with one of your points: low-hanging fruit should be picked. And there is such a great cornucopia of available sales....in unharvested territories... that the cost/reward benefits for Tesla argue for their continued expansion into such areas, even if at the price of letting established regions coast for a period. For Tesla to improve their presence in Neroden-country like upstate NY, or for less-dense NoAm sites like the midwest or - horrors - Anchorage (as proxy for Alaska - we're used to that) - is for them to absolutely, positively propagate their written goal of advancing the cause of EVs. Adding a Service Center in the LA Basin? Far, far less potent - and therefore, inappropriate use of scarce resources (their capital, time and workforce).

Now back to time out. See y'all in late autumn.

Depends on what hat you want to wear:

Mean, selfish stock holder (I am in this camp): Only build out enough service centers to serve the largest population centers in descending order, to maximize return on investment.

EV adoption Advocate: put service centers within driving distance of the maximum number of people (think cell phone coverage) to give everyone the best possible service experience.

One optimizes money, the other optimizes niceness. So I am not surprised there is disagreement depending on what you think is more important. Or if you live in an unserved area you will have a strong niceness bias.

I think it would be way too expensive to do the latter right now. I say allow the M3 volumes to drive this expansion. By that logic it is actually better to expand LA then build new in Tulsa.

Just my opinion. TM will do what they do regardless of what we think.

 

[hobbes]

Top Gear must have liked the X:

Sorry for being off topic, but really love the video.

 

[esk8mw]

Volume has been a joke lately - 2-3 million shares/day. Can't wait to see the heavy volume.

 

[Papafox]

Depends on what hat you want to wear:

Mean, selfish stock holder (I am in this camp): Only build out enough service centers to serve the largest population centers in descending order, to maximize return on investment.

EV adoption Advocate: put service centers within driving distance of the maximum number of people (think cell phone coverage) to give everyone the best possible service experience.

One optimizes money, the other optimizes niceness. So I am not surprised there is disagreement depending on what you think is more important. Or if you live in an unserved area you will have a strong niceness bias.

I think it would be way too expensive to do the latter right now. I say allow the M3 volumes to drive this expansion. By that logic it is actually better to expand LA then build new in Tulsa.

Just my opinion. TM will do what they do regardless of what we think.

The nice thing about Model 3 is that it brings both viewpoints together. Building enough service centers to support the huge numbers of Model 3 owners that are in the pipeline will benefit S and X owners in less-populated areas. There'll be no need for under-used service centers in places such as upstate New York once Model 3 owners are added to the mix.

On another note, it looks like there's a small tug-of-war for 220 today between longs and shorts. Longs want to bring the price up to about 220.5 and shorts keep bopping it down to 219.95 to avoid the appearance of TSLA continuing its march upward.

Edit: ... and the winner is ... the shorts by a nose. TSLA closed in the red today by $0.09. Coincidence we closed a sliver into the red? I think not.

 

[VanE]

Coincidence we closed a sliver into the red? I think not.

Could you elaborate on that? What is the win for the shorts to end such a regular day just a sliver into the red? (I'm sorry if this is obvious, I'm relatively new to short-term trading and price movements)

 

[austinEV]

I don't think the price action has ever been this adrift. Becalmed. There is almost no change in the first or second derivative. Truly this is the calm before... something. The 200, 50 and 20 day MA are all flat and practically equal. The MACD is even. The ADX (trend strength) is at a 12 month low. RSI right in the middle. This is as boring as boring gets.

 

[Menifeer]

Depends on what hat you want to wear:

Mean, selfish stock holder (I am in this camp): Only build out enough service centers to serve the largest population centers in descending order, to maximize return on investment.

EV adoption Advocate: put service centers within driving distance of the maximum number of people (think cell phone coverage) to give everyone the best possible service experience.
...

Service Centers need to be available close to where the car is when it stops and needs fixin'. We have to hope that our cars don't break down when we're hundreds of miles from help.

 

[Johan]

I don't think the price action has ever been this adrift. Becalmed. There is almost no change in the first or second derivative. Truly this is the calm before... something. The 200, 50 and 20 day MA are all flat and practically equal. The MACD is even. The ADX (trend strength) is at a 12 month low. RSI right in the middle. This is as boring as boring gets.

Good observations. My intuitive feeling that last month has been that the stock price has seemed to move in a very haphazard way.

 

[madodel]

Anyone else get a folder from Tesla today with a graphic of the Model Ξ and a "THANK YOU FOR ORDERING A MODEL 3.
ELON"