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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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We will see how stock behaves the rest of the day vs market. Not terribly surprised with price action. Fortunately, market is having a strong day. Probably muted the "sell the news"

next up is the Q3 numbers on Friday'ish. I'm expecting tesla will hit or slightly beat delivery guidance.
 
The large HEPA filter was a surprise and was impressive, no doubt.

What will be no surprise is the cost. I bet it's $100 (or much higher) every time it needs to be changed, which will probably be yearly if not more often. My large BlueAir room air HEPA filter costs $55 on Amazon and lasts six months. Tesla's is twice THAT size.
 
The large HEPA filter was a surprise and was impressive, no doubt.

What will be no surprise is the cost. I bet it's $100 (or much higher) every time it needs to be changed, which will probably be yearly if not more often. My large BlueAir room air HEPA filter costs $55 on Amazon and lasts six months. Tesla's is twice THAT size.
Unless you live in India, in which case it needs to be replaced daily.
 
While it's not surprising on one hand it's also not like you can blame this on China or the broader market. Any theories as to why such an apathetic response?


It's the "sell the news" effect, just like we saw with the D event a year ago. The market now looks forward to a continued cash burn in Q3 and lowered yearly guidance that may or may not be met. Stock price is still at a level where it hasn't really been hit by the lowered yearly guidance and I would argue lowered 2016 guidance as the 2k/week EoY runrate had been mentioned a lot by Elon before recently when it was changed to 16-1800/week. I think we will test the $220 support in October unless there is a significant quarterly delivery beat.
 
It's the "sell the news" effect, just like we saw with the D event a year ago. The market now looks forward to a continued cash burn in Q3 and lowered yearly guidance that may or may not be met. Stock price is still at a level where it hasn't really been hit by the lowered yearly guidance and I would argue lowered 2016 guidance as the 2k/week EoY runrate had been mentioned a lot by Elon before recently when it was changed to 16-1800/week. I think we will test the $220 support in October unless there is a significant quarterly delivery beat.
I thought you needed a "buy the hype" first and it doesn't seem like there has been any run up prior. I am mostly surprised that if it was sell the news...why we aren't down $25 like normal is all. Obviously I had hoped for some positive catalyst.
 
I thought you needed a "buy the hype" first and it doesn't seem like there has been any run up prior. I am mostly surprised that if it was sell the news...why we aren't down $25 like normal is all. Obviously I had hoped for some positive catalyst.


You need to keep in mind that at any given time there is a lot of factors impacting SP movement, so even though there was no runup prior to the event there could have been a buy the rumor impact, just negated by selling pressure as the broader market dropped and worries about guidance being met.
 
You need to keep in mind that at any given time there is a lot of factors impacting SP movement, so even though there was no runup prior to the event there could have been a buy the rumor impact, just negated by selling pressure as the broader market dropped and worries about guidance being met.
I'm trying to take everything into account, and I do agree with much of your broader point. It has seemed to me this "environment" would actually benefit an energy innovation company like Tesla...instead it has hurt it.
 
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