Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[highend]

Model X looks pretty! I like it...

TSLA - watch key level $260-262 as told yesterday...

 

[jhm]

Wow, the stock is on its way to $260. Any news?

 

[doggusfluffy]

Wow, the stock is on its way to $260. Any news?

I haven't seen anything beyond rehashing the Jonas note, not involved in Takata and Aston Martin is planning an EV. Maybe investors are just hopping on the bandwagon and the excitement usually contained to these boards is spreading?

 

[eepic]

And now a blue one wrapped the same way Blue Model X mule sighting with plastic wrap, Palo Alto : teslamotors

 

[Bobbyducati]

not sure we break 260 today, but could see a late surge in the last 1-2 hours today, wouldn't surprise me. seems like typical behavior

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Analyst Recommendations 8/18 - 12M average PT above $300 !

Hi there,
guess some of you have been waiting for a new screen shot and here it comes. MS's monster PT is to be seen here almost as an outlier which brings the average PT to $305.00. Let's see what's next to happen...

 

[mmd]

Curious, how this list is sorted. It is missing some big names like BofA and UBS, but includes some smaller names, and some without any price targets.
Is the MS rating out of sync? If their PT is $465, why be cautious?

 

[Bobbyducati]

Curious, how this list is sorted. It is missing some big names like BofA and UBS, but includes some smaller names, and some without any price targets.
Is the MS rating out of sync? If their PT is $465, why be cautious?

its sorted by date.

 

[Johan]

Curious, how this list is sorted. It is missing some big names like BofA and UBS, but includes some smaller names, and some without any price targets.
Is the MS rating out of sync? If their PT is $465, why be cautious?

Yeah why cautious?!?

 

[FluxCap]

Hi there,
guess some of you have been waiting for a new screen shot and here it comes. MS's monster PT is to be seen here almost as an outlier which brings the average PT to $305.00. Let's see what's next to happen...

Thanks as usual, Derek!

 

[ludicrousspeed]

Wow I did not expect to get back to 260+ so fast after being in the low 230s not even five trading days ago. I hope it is able to consolidate here until a legitimate catalyst, most likely being X reveal and/or deliveries, presents itself. I personally was excited as a long term investor when I heard Jonas ask the Uber question live on the call, but I'm not a fan of a 10% increase based on such a wildly speculative and bullish note alone.

 

[Johan]

 

[doggusfluffy]

*Cough* Jonas *Cough* transcript *Cough*

 

[austinEV]

Wow I did not expect to get back to 260+ so fast after being in the low 230s not even five trading days ago. I hope it is able to consolidate here until a legitimate catalyst, most likely being X reveal and/or deliveries, presents itself. I personally was excited as a long term investor when I heard Jonas ask the Uber question live on the call, but I'm not a fan of a 10% increase based on such a wildly speculative and bullish note alone.

That was a very fast little, perfect "V". I also expected it to hang out at the bottom for a while.

 

[FANGO]

Wow I did not expect to get back to 260+ so fast after being in the low 230s not even five trading days ago. I hope it is able to consolidate here until a legitimate catalyst, most likely being X reveal and/or deliveries, presents itself. I personally was excited as a long term investor when I heard Jonas ask the Uber question live on the call, but I'm not a fan of a 10% increase based on such a wildly speculative and bullish note alone.

Or a 10% decrease based on people overreacting to spending cash on the thing it was raised for.

This isn't an increase, it's a recovery.

 

[TSLAopt]

Wow I did not expect to get back to 260+ so fast after being in the low 230s not even five trading days ago. I hope it is able to consolidate here until a legitimate catalyst, most likely being X reveal and/or deliveries, presents itself. I personally was excited as a long term investor when I heard Jonas ask the Uber question live on the call, but I'm not a fan of a 10% increase based on such a wildly speculative and bullish note alone.

Yes, this is why the meaning of this thread is bad for TSLA investors. Anyone trying to time a 'dip' by selling out to buy back in later is gambling. I follow this thread carefully as a long term investor and holder of LEAPs just to stay ontop of the latest new and potential catalysts for the stock to go up or down.

I haven't heard of anyone who doubted the analyst upgrade actually reading the MS report, only referencing the report title or referencing other people referencing the report title.

I can only imagine the Uber investors who may decide to start buying some TSLA as a hedge against if Uber does not dominate ride-sharing in the future then TSLA might. I also think this report could spook some shorts as it sets in and the price continues to appreciate.

The only lesson I've learned is that the next stop within a few weeks could be new ATHs or it could be back down to the low 200s or we could hover between 230-270 for several more weeks. Luckily I don't need to gamble, but if I HAD TO gamble short term (1-2 months out), I'd put it at 30/25/45 as the chances of these three things happening.

 

[Noble Ninja]

The question now is where do we do from here? When will the option be exercised and thereby remove the incentive the underwriters have to drive the stock higher. Are they satisfied with todays gain? My speculation is no. I bet they are waiting for the X reveal/deliveries just like the rest of us and will support the stock until then and once revealed, exercise the options and then start to talk the stock down again about the ramp etc. That is what my gut tells me, even though it is rather conspiratorial.

I'm gonna guess and say that they'll exercise the option by monthly expiration for September (Sept 18th). After that, likely downhill through "Red" October by U.S. interest rate hike non-sense and maybe more China market woes again. Heck, why not invite Greece back in again, lol. Macro-economics seem more chaotic in October.

The thing to remember is that Tesla is purpose driven company, and Tesla Mobility is a strikingly good fit for Tesla's goal of catalyzing societal shift to the sustainable transportation. It is not only excellent way to generate very healthy and dependable profit, but also will allow Tesla to diversify their portfolio of businesses, and de-risk continuing scaling up of the battery production.

The business model makes a lot of sense and is in line with the kind of visions I've come to expect from Elon.

 

[Johan]

With the seemingly justifiable suspicion and focus on timing of the Adam Jonas' note which was so vividly displayed over the last few pages of posts, I would like to warn against being stuck in righteous indignation at the imperfect way market works.

After reading through the AJ note, I have to say that his modeling of the Tesla Mobility business was quite thorough, with very conservative assumptions. Once the initial leap of assuming that Tesla Moblility is actually in the works is made, the note is top notch in quality and depth of the underlying research. The thing to remember is that Tesla is purpose driven company, and Tesla Mobility is a strikingly good fit for Tesla's goal of catalyzing societal shift to the sustainable transportation. It is not only excellent way to generate very healthy and dependable profit, but also will allow Tesla to diversify their portfolio of businesses, and de-risk continuing scaling up of the battery production.

As far as the short-term stock movement, I think that we might close the gap tomorrow to $260+, and then move sideways until the next catalyst, presumably MX related...

I agree a lot with this view Vladimir. It fits right in with Elon's goal/purpose driven philosophy, which it turns out seems to automatically home in on future untapped markets with enormous profits to be made. Don't get me started on it, but it so clear to me how Elon just sees the money and profits as a tool to achieve something much greater, but in the process is able to create so much value to us investors.

Also, if you listened to the call and the way Elon answered Jonas' questions on this topic; first the "that's a really insightful question" followed by the "I better not comment on that" and then Jonas' "sometimes the non-answer says a lot" you know there is something substantial happening or at least being considered here.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Technicals look good. Market reaction to stock offering looks good. Model X release imminent. JB spoke at an event a few days ago that received almost no coverage. Very important Clean Energy Summit next week. This rally could be due to any of these things. Perhaps the sell off was an overreaction? Also, the stock is technically oversold.

I'll post this link again since I think no-one commented on my last post.

Press Releases - Clean Energy Summit 8.0 | August 24, 2015

 

[Curt Renz]

There are industry conjectures that a Buick model will be made in China and imported to the United States next year. The United Auto Workers union is not happy: UAW calls potential China-made Buick 'alarming'