Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[sahanim]

interesting trading today.
It doesn't look like the usual daily curves im used to but i did predict a close at 264 today.
I think we'll be stuck in the low 260s this week with potential upside next week.

unless elon wants to prove me wrong and release MX design studio in the next 2 days.

 

[jhm]

Pretty quiet on the thread today. Must have been a good day to buy. ;-)

 

[austinEV]

Pretty quiet on the thread today. Must have been a good day to buy. ;-)

I would say it was weirdly noisy yesterday

 

[Papafox]

interesting trading today.
It doesn't look like the usual daily curves im used to but i did predict a close at 264 today.
I think we'll be stuck in the low 260s this week with potential upside next week.

unless elon wants to prove me wrong and release MX design studio in the next 2 days.

Tesla will probably stick to their timing of releasing the X dashboard in July, but there's little incentive to release it in early July. Why distract people from buying Model S any earlier than necessary? I wouldn't be surprised to see the dashboard appear a few days before the end of the month, followed by the ER days later. Thus, the most likely scenario is to see positive catalysts later in the month and back up Sahanim's point. On the other hand, I wouldn't want to be short on shares when the Model X announcement is made, and there's no guarantee when the dashboard will appear.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

The Stoxx 600 autos sector was over 1 percent higher after the open following data from the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association that showed new car sales in the region rose 14.8 percent year-on-year in June.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Bloomberg: "Tesla to Sell Model X SUVs in China in First Half of 2016" (link)

Tesla Motors Inc. expects to start selling its Model X sport utility vehicle in China in the first half of next year after first introducing it in the U.S. this quarter.
The electric-car manufacturer is also opening five to six new showrooms by the end of this year, bringing the total number in China to about 15, Gary Tao, a Beijing-based spokesman for Tesla, said by phone. The new outlets will be located in the center of cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou to raise Tesla’s visibility, Tao said.
Tesla’s new SUV may help it boost sales in China, where such vehicles remain the fastest-growing segment at a time when demand for automobiles is slowing amid a weak economy and stock market volatility.

BTW media slowly picking up the fact that Tesla repeatedly buying more land for their Gigafactory in Nevada (like engadget).
Maybe the Tesla Gigafactory will become even a bit more "giga" during the next couple of years?!
Some calculations currently being done in the background ...

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Nasdaq 100 at ATH, VIX plummeting. Tesla earnings right around the corner. Couldn't ask for a better set up. See ya tomorrow!

 

[doggusfluffy]

Electric vehicle batteries are getting cheaper much faster than we expected | Ars Technica

“It is too early to say for certain, but it is clear that the innovation systems around Li-ion batteries for all types of applications (consumer electronics, cars, stationary storage) are connected and benefit from the same basic R&D and learning over time,” he continued. “For Tesla specifically, it is definitely the case.”

 

[ibcs]

Nice movement on little news other than batteries are getting cheaper!

 

[Bobbyducati]

feeling good today, so that means a 5% drop in SP im sure.

 

[Drax7]

Electric vehicle batteries are getting cheaper much faster than we expected | Ars Technica

It seems they are way off about tesla's battery cost . And if you project a 30% plus cost manufacturing improvement then they are
substantially off on their timing, let alone improvements in chemistry size etc..

 

[ibcs]

It seems they are way off about tesla's battery cost . And if you project a 30% plus cost manufacturing improvement then they are
substantially off on their timing, let alone improvements in chemistry size etc..

Realizing those inaccuracies for Tesla provides a true stock catalyst for the future as their costs continue to decline.

 

[doggusfluffy]

New Service Center, Gallery and Supercharger Locations For Tesla Owners | Radio NB

Shhh. Don't tell Abbott and spoil his surprise...

 

[tinm]

Sigh. Must be nice to have service centers in anti-Tesla Texas. Here in NM, they're banned as well as stores and galleries. Media could care less. Why is that I wonder.

 

[MitchJi]

Hi,

From Ars:

“The single most important factor in achieving a compelling and affordable mass-market BEV [battery electric vehicle] is its relative cost,” Nykvist and Nilsson wrote. “It is commonly understood that the cost of battery packs needs to fall to below US$150 per kWh in order for BEVs to become cost-competitive on par with internal combustion vehicles.”

Powerpack (very similar to the automobile package) 250 per kWh. JB said that the M3 batteries have 20% greater energy density than MS cells. Energy density and prices are almost the same thing. Plus 30% decrease by the end of the the first year of GF Production.

Total is about $125 per kWh.

 

[replicant]

Powerpack (very similar to the automobile package) 250 per kWh. JB said that the M3 batteries have 20% greater energy density than MS cells. Energy density and prices are almost the same thing. Plus 30% decrease by the end of the the first year of GF Production.

Total is about $125 per kWh.

Not if the Powerpack pricing already takes the 30% decrease from the GF into account.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Not if the Powerpack pricing already takes the 30% decrease from the GF into account.

It is not, otherwise the powerpacks would have to be selling at a loss while manufactured at Fremont prior to completion of the first phase of GF. During the Q1 ER, however, Elon implied that Fremont manufactured PowerPacks will have low (positive) margin:

Andrea Susan James - Dougherty & Co. LLCHi. Thanks for taking my questions. Just to build on the Tesla energy conversation. What are your revenue and gross margin targets on that business and how do we look at the 2015 ramp?

Elon Reeve Musk - Chairman & Chief Executive OfficerWell, I mean, the gross margin and revenue obviously is going to change with time. So when it's low volume, made in Fremont, it will be relatively low margin. Once we get Gigafactory up and running, and high volume and get the economies of scale working, this is just a guess, right now, but I mean, like, maybe it's somewhere around 20% because this is not like – it's like we just don't have enough information to say exactly what that would be. But probably 20% is a reasonable guess.
And then, in terms of volume, I mean, we're going to try to scale it as fast as we can – as the slowest manufacturing constraint. So, I mean, it's easier to say what's the long term without saying like exactly which quarter is it going to be in. I don't know. But I think, we'll see demand for stationary storage as measured in sort of megawatt hours or gigawatt hours to be approximately double that of the car. But that's our best guess for long-term demand. Yeah.

 

[mejojo]

Would Elon's persona be improved or degraded by taking some lessons in effective speaking?

His halting delivery and use of "too many words" is part of his charm, but can be something that I believe makes listeners get frustrated and not take him quite so seriously.

 

[EldestOyster]

He may have had some lessons. He certainly has had lots of practice. Go back a handful of years and compare to how he used to speak.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Would Elon's persona be improved or degraded by taking some lessons in effective speaking?

His halting delivery and use of "too many words" is part of his charm, but can be something that I believe makes listeners get frustrated and not take him quite so seriously.

Don't think so. His speaking style is part of what defines Elon and makes him unique. Obviously, when Elon speaks you listen, but in his case you not only listen but sit on the tip of your chair in anticipation. At least I do.