Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Citizen-T]

Wow. The market really wants to force me to buy some principal weeklies, doesn't it.

I think the market wants to sit on the 200-day for this report. It wants to decide whether this is support or resistance based on what happens tonight.

 

[FredTMC]

55k guidance for 2015: I'll be really irritated with Tesla if they were to actually lower guidance below 55k deliveries on the ER today

why? When tesla originally provided 2015 guidance they could've picked any guidance that they were comfortable with. For example, 50k instead of 55k. I think that 50k would've been more than adequate YoY vs 2014's 32k deliveries to support the stock price.

So, why did tesla provide 55k? Answer is they were comfortable with this forecast. Furthermore, they went thru all these big factory upgrades to enable them to scale production AND they made it a point to say that only "minor changes" were needed to scale out as a result of the big changes already in place.

Additionally, Elon said they would exit 2015 at a 100k cars per year production rate. In other words, they would go thru a large production ramp in 2015 as the months go by...

bottom line is that Tesla is a high growth company and the market values them on this growth. They missed last year (model D issues and weather/holiday season deliveries etc). It's really bad if they miss again or have to lower guidance. Tesla needs to provide guidance that they can hit. Under promise and over deliver (repeat quarterly)

I don't believe they'll lower guidance away from 55k. If Model X has initial unexpected production ramp issues in Q4, then simply make more Model S's.

BTW: I'm long since 2012 and in for the long haul.

 

[hershey101]

The max-pain point was around $220 (although I don't think that calculates contracts opened/closed during the trading day today). In either case, if we have a mediocre earnings report, I expect the market to push the price towards that point. I sold out my short-term June calls for a marginal profit. I had bought them earlier in the year and ended up holding them through the drop below $200. I am just holding some stock and leaps into this earnings. I don't really have a good feeling about which way it will go to make a bet. I'm expecting marginally good report and a slight pop up, so I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

[Johan]

Wow. The market really wants to force me to buy some principal weeklies, doesn't it.

As usual we would likely have to see at least an $8-10 pop after earning for a play like that to pay off. I'm looking at the MayWk2 $230 calls (more or less on the money) and they are $8.50 right now. Tomorrow their time value will approach zero fast.

 

[FANGO]

That basically describes me - I signed up immediately, though it was less backup and more to be able to buy energy cheap at night for use during the day, but on Monday I was contacted by SolarCity who said that they were responding to my Powerwall signup. I told them I can't go solar because my roof is 99% covered by trees, and they responded that "you can only get the battery if you get solar."

Has anyone else had this experience? It's a great way to discourage an enthusiastic group of people. I can see why SolarCity might only be interested if there's a solar component, but I signed up (I thought) with Tesla, not SC...

There is a checkbox to be contacted by solar city which is checked by default. Did you leave it checked?

 

[FANGO]

As usual we would likely have to see at least an $8-10 pop after earning for a play like that to pay off. I'm looking at the MayWk2 $230 calls (more or less on the money) and they are $8.50 right now. Tomorrow their time value will approach zero fast.

Yeah, I usually sell put spreads for earnings. Considering it, but I'm not sure where were going to go. Also have some 175-210 spreads which I didn't buy enough of which are looking great right now (fingers a bit crossed). That said this drop today is making selling puts seem more attractive...

 

[MartinAustin]

Crazy support for the stock price. when was the last time we didn't have a "day of" collapse? I will be overjoyed if we close <1% down (basically flat). How many of you dumped yesterday planning to buy back today at a discount?

Totally agree, I'm sure I've seen drops of 5% prior to earnings releases. But I think it started after lunchtime. Today's robustness is a nice surprise though.

 

[FluxCap]

I'm surprised by this market freakout on Janet's comments, I have to admit.

On the lighter side, the kids, they all want the Model 3 so badly that some are designing it themselves:

 

[Yonki]

There is a checkbox to be contacted by solar city which is checked by default. Did you leave it checked?

Probably (though it says "I’m interested in having solar panels installed", not "have Solar City contact me"). But even if I did, they shouldn't have just said "No battery for you!" and ended the opportunity there. This discussion continues in the Stationary Storage thread.

 

[InTheShadows]

20 minutes to take your positions. This dip is interesting.

 

[austinEV]

55k guidance for 2015: I'll be really irritated with Tesla if they were to actually lower guidance below 55k deliveries on the ER today

why? When tesla originally provided 2015 guidance they could've picked any guidance that they were comfortable with. For example, 50k instead of 55k. I think that 50k would've been more than adequate YoY vs 2014's 32k deliveries to support the stock price.

So, why did tesla provide 55k? Answer is they were comfortable with this forecast. Furthermore, they went thru all these big factory upgrades to enable them to scale production AND they made it a point to say that only "minor changes" were needed to scale out as a result of the big changes already in place.

Additionally, Elon said they would exit 2015 at a 100k cars per year production rate. In other words, they would go thru a large production ramp in 2015 as the months go by...

bottom line is that Tesla is a high growth company and the market values them on this growth. They missed last year (model D issues and weather/holiday season deliveries etc). It's really bad if they miss again or have to lower guidance. Tesla needs to provide guidance that they can hit. Under promise and over deliver (repeat quarterly)

I don't believe they'll lower guidance away from 55k. If Model X has initial unexpected production ramp issues in Q4, then simply make more Model S's.

BTW: I'm long since 2012 and in for the long haul.

Yes... as I had said (in a post yesterday) if they guide down for the year or q2 it means 1) demand is down and down so bad that we cannot hide it or 2) all those factory upgrades are not working; they just exposed some other bottleneck and our throughput is strangely low (800/wk?). I cannot decide which would be worse, both are catastrophic.

I think it IS possible that 55k was an uncomfortable number designed to keep the factory stressed out and working hard. So it is possible that this year will play out exactly like last year, a slight miss. But... they wouldn't have visibility about that in early May. Even if they were off pace for the year they wouldn't have to guide down. It would be really bizarre to say we think that it will be 53k NOW. Even if they thought it they would be under no obligation to say so and it isn't really even advisable.

 

[techmaven]

Not surprised by this dip. I got stopped out earlier today, I'm back in a little bit with this dip.

 

[AlMc]

I have sat 'pat' all day. I have no idea what is in store for us. Good luck both short and long term bulls.:wink:

edit: 'pat' for me is NO protective puts........

edit #2: I have decided I am taking Yellen off my Christmas card list!

 

[surfside]

I have sat 'pat' all day. I have no idea what is in store for us. Good luck both short and long term bulls.:wink:

edit: 'pat' for me is NO protective puts........

in a similar boat here -- been trying to decide today whether or not to sell some of my june calls that are very green and roll them out further.

given today's downward movement, i'm hanging on for this earnings release.

surfside

 

[FluxCap]

I think the market wants to sit on the 200-day for this report. It wants to decide whether this is support or resistance based on what happens tonight.

Dude I pass the oracle mantle to you.

 

[Bunky]

Yes... as I had said (in a post yesterday) if they guide down for the year or q2 it means 1) demand is down and down so bad that we cannot hide it or 2) all those factory upgrades are not working; they just exposed some other bottleneck and our throughput is strangely low (800/wk?). I cannot decide which would be worse, both are catastrophic.

I think it IS possible that 55k was an uncomfortable number designed to keep the factory stressed out and working hard. So it is possible that this year will play out exactly like last year, a slight miss. But... they wouldn't have visibility about that in early May. Even if they were off pace for the year they wouldn't have to guide down. It would be really bizarre to say we think that it will be 53k NOW. Even if they thought it they would be under no obligation to say so and it isn't really even advisable.

Even if 1) Demand is down, and its a big IF in my opinion, I don't think they would lower guidance this early before visibly pulling some demand generation levers. With all this nonsense around the Japan interview, a reiteration of guidance could be viewed as a positive.

Good luck to all.

 

[austinEV]

Decent close. day was a non-event which is unusual. Bullish to me.

 

[mrdoubleb]

here we go, the quaterly "let's break the refresh button" time.

 

[Johan]

Time to hit ir.teslamotors.com

Edit: I posted this simultaneously with mrdoubelb

 

[Rifleman]