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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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#4,201
Seeing headlines of an Andrea James note:
- grid storage worth $50-$70 per share, quietly signing new industrial customers
- winning ~80% market share of non-residential applications in California by MW

Anyone have the full note? This is huge, could be the first of a trend of analysts assigning tangible value to the stationary storage business. I'm hoping they announce some big projects signed in that space
 
#4,202
eepic said:
Seeing headlines of an Andrea James note:
- grid storage worth $50-$70 per share, quietly signing new industrial customers
- winning ~80% market share of non-residential applications in California by MW

Anyone have the full note? This is huge, could be the first of a trend of analysts assigning tangible value to the stationary storage business. I'm hoping they announce some big projects signed in that space
Click to expand...
Nice find. Not sure why Merrill's/Lovallo's analysis (or lack thereof) gets distributed by Barron's while Andrea's is absent from any analysis or reprint (doesn't show up on Yahoo Finance). Interesting that Andrea values grid storage at about what Lovallo values the company.

Tesla Motors: Personal Storage Battery a - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com
 
#4,203
#4,204
Couple more Elon tweets. Even clearer stationary storage is all but a forgone conclusion for 4/30. Perhaps Elon doesn't enjoy reading articles speculating about an electric motorcycle being revealed by Tesla.

Elon Musk @elonmusk · 39m39 minutes ago

With all that solar power being generated, it almost feels like something is needed to complete the picture ...
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Elon Musk @elonmusk · 52m52 minutes ago

SolarCity just hit a new daily energy record of 5GWh two weeks after reaching 4GWh
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PS love the idea that Model S may drop to 0-60 in 2.8.
 
#4,207
I believe Adam Jonas already assigned a value to grid storage of 20/share a while ago. I'm sure that will change or he will update it and remind us all on may 1.

The reason Andrea doesn't get distributed much is because even though she's qualified to be talking about tesla's he's from a small analyst and people don't care as much about what they have to say. They like big names.

As for the "idea" of 2.8, it was always an idea. How do you propose this happens? They already did it once, and they got maybe .1s. .4s is a lot. This (and 110kwh) reminds me of the "Disney buys apple" rumors that existed for decades and everyone was desperately trying to find hints for, but were always just completely made up. Or like the delivery rumors each quarter to set expectations too high (didnt someone say 14k the other day? thats ridiculous...). I don't know why people have such need to push unrealistic fantasies about their favorite stocks, it only ever ends up in disappointment.
 
#4,208
FANGO said:
I believe Adam Jonas already assigned a value to grid storage of 20/share a while ago. I'm sure that will change or he will update it and remind us all on may 1.

The reason Andrea doesn't get distributed much is because even though she's qualified to be talking about tesla's he's from a small analyst and people don't care as much about what they have to say. They like big names.

As for the "idea" of 2.8, it was always an idea. How do you propose this happens? They already did it once, and they got maybe .1s. .4s is a lot. This (and 110kwh) reminds me of the "Disney buys apple" rumors that existed for decades and everyone was desperately trying to find hints for, but were always just completely made up. Or like the delivery rumors each quarter to set expectations too high (didnt someone say 14k the other day? thats ridiculous...). I don't know why people have such need to push unrealistic fantasies about their favorite stocks, it only ever ends up in disappointment.
Click to expand...

Though Dougherty & Company is not one of the largest firms, I recall Andrea James' notes receiving coverage in the past including multiple appearances on CNBC. What's more, in the past week CLSA and Argus Research had notes that received coverage. These two do not seem to be household names, at least not in the U.S.
 
#4,209
FANGO said:
I believe Adam Jonas already assigned a value to grid storage of 20/share a while ago. I'm sure that will change or he will update it and remind us all on may 1.

The reason Andrea doesn't get distributed much is because even though she's qualified to be talking about tesla's he's from a small analyst and people don't care as much about what they have to say. They like big names.

As for the "idea" of 2.8, it was always an idea. How do you propose this happens? They already did it once, and they got maybe .1s. .4s is a lot. This (and 110kwh) reminds me of the "Disney buys apple" rumors that existed for decades and everyone was desperately trying to find hints for, but were always just completely made up. Or like the delivery rumors each quarter to set expectations too high (didnt someone say 14k the other day? thats ridiculous...). I don't know why people have such need to push unrealistic fantasies about their favorite stocks, it only ever ends up in disappointment.
Click to expand...

Sure, but that was priced like an bonus out-of-the-money call option potential side business. If we start seeing announcements of eight-figure contracts, they become tangible for them to model into EPS. Moreover, the electricity market is a century old market worth tens of trillions dollars so the opportunity could be even greater than vehicles. If Tesla is the first to reach the tipping point where it's at an economic advantage compared to existing technology, demand will be quasi-infinite for decades.
 
#4,210
eepic said:
Sure, but that was priced like an bonus out-of-the-money call option potential side business. If we start seeing announcements of eight-figure contracts, they become tangible for them to model into EPS. Moreover, the electricity market is a century old market worth tens of trillions dollars so the opportunity could be even greater than vehicles. If Tesla is the first to reach the tipping point where it's at an economic advantage compared to existing technology, demand will be quasi-infinite for decades.
Click to expand...

I am hoping they announce some major commercial/industrial partnerships on April 30. I think the market is just expecting a "home battery" but if they can demonstrate a compelling full system with software management that is ready to go (or already underway), hopefully we won't see a "sell on the news".
 
#4,211
MikeC said:
I am hoping they announce some major commercial/industrial partnerships on April 30. I think the market is just expecting a "home battery" but if they can demonstrate a compelling full system with software management that is ready to go (or already underway), hopefully we won't see a "sell on the news".
Click to expand...

If SCTY come out with any type of announcement of a new product launch in the near future I'm buying TSLA calls.
 
#4,213
hockeythug said:
Makes sense now. Cramer is doing a segment on Audi and their electric "innovations" to take on Tesla tonight on MM.
Click to expand...

I think the only innovation Audi has figured out is how to milk a thousand press releases for a single vaporware product. Did they hire some people off of the Duke Nukem Forever team or something? Oh wait, that's not a fair comparison, at least that product actually got released eventually...
 
#4,214
FANGO said:
I think the only innovation Audi has figured out is how to milk a thousand press releases for a single vaporware product. Did they hire some people off of the Duke Nukem Forever team or something? Oh wait, that's not a fair comparison, at least that product actually got released eventually...
Click to expand...

It was about their A3 e-tron which has a 19-20 mile battery range that costs $40k. Obviously is a compliance vehicle. Basically was Audi guy saying the Tesla is just a car for the rich with "facts" about the average Tesla owner making $500K and saying its a Tesla owners 4th car that they own.
 
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#4,215
hockeythug said:
It was about their A3 e-tron with has a 19-20 mile battery range that costs $40k. Obviously is a compliance vehicle. Basically was Audi guy saying the Tesla is just a car for the rich with "facts" about the average Tesla owner making $500K and saying its a Tesla owners 4th car that they own.
Click to expand...

As a tesla owner who has it as his first and only car and has never had a w-2 over about 20k I'd like to talk to that guy. Perhaps I could give him some investment advice ;)

Btw, the A3 etron was first announced like 6 years ago or something. And was supposed to be full EV. They had some road testing in LA. So not only were they six years late, they also made it worse in that time period. Incompetent dinosaurs, the lot of them. Audi is a joke.
 
#4,216
FANGO said:
As a tesla owner who has it as his first and only car and has never had a w-2 over about 20k I'd like to talk to that guy. Perhaps I could give him some investment advice ;)

Btw, the A3 etron was first announced like 6 years ago or something. And was supposed to be full EV. They had some road testing in LA. So not only were they six years late, they also made it worse in that time period. Incompetent dinosaurs, the lot of them. Audi is a joke.
Click to expand...

Oh, it was bad. I guess the A3 is also a "easy charge". "You don't need a special hookup." Which means it can charge on 110v. :rolleyes:
 
#4,217
hockeythug said:
It was about their A3 e-tron which has a 19-20 mile battery range that costs $40k. Obviously is a compliance vehicle. Basically was Audi guy saying the Tesla is just a car for the rich with "facts" about the average Tesla owner making $500K and saying its a Tesla owners 4th car that they own.
Click to expand...

Hilarious that an Audi exec would be lambasting another car company as "just a car for the rich."
 
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