Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[brysondad]

not much room for deviation here. i'll go back to my dark short cave and program my bots to for that $180 manipulation.

good luck all.

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I sell when I feel like selling. Like at 240. I guess that was another terribly hubristic idea of me. How dare I take 1100%.

good for you. Like i said, you are right.

 

[FANGO]

not much room for deviation here. i'll go back to my dark short cave and program my bots to for that $180 manipulation.

good luck all.

If I'm interpreting this correctly, you seem angry that I called out your theory that buying pressure makes stocks go down, and selling pressure makes them go up.

 

[brysondad]

Just thought I would post a 5y KO chart, why not.

View attachment 48965

damn pretty chart.

 

[SteveG3]

you are right. i'm wrong. keep holding. question: when do you sell? or are you planning to pass it on to your kids? like coca cola stocks?

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again, what was i thinking? good luck the next 2 years.

Bryson, I start selling when I think it is overvalued, do to a major run up or a change in fundamentals, or has essentially run the bulk of it's outsized growth and is fair valued. Of course, I prefer the last of these scenarios. I make those decisions with my head. It sounded as though you were suggesting one could only be long the stock with one's heart, but I may have misunderstood your post. (fwiw, I sold 10% of my holdings at $248. I've bought that and more back in with an average price of around $200).

 

[MikeC]

I'm open to opposing arguments but it's a waste of time to argue with perma-bears who only show up here after big drops to try to stoke more fear, guys. I caught falling knives all the way down to 120 during the fire sale. It would have been great to buy all at the exact bottom but when TSLA zoomed past all my buy points on the way back up, I was just fine with all my shiny new knives.

 

[Twiddler]

damn pretty chart.

Well, not the 900% return that TSLA provided, but I don't think that an average 200% yoy return that KO gets you is too shabby to pass on to your kids, so I do not quite get the analogy that you used earlier. Please though, don't let that stir you from your cave.

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I'm open to opposing arguments but it's a waste of time to argue with perma-bears who only show up here after big drops to try to stoke more fear, guys. I caught falling knives all the way down to 120 during the fire sale. It would have been great to buy all at the exact bottom but when TSLA zoomed past all my buy points on the way back up, I was just fine with all my shiny new knives.

And if you will refer to his posts at that time, he was calling for well sub-$100 prices as well. Has not been a bear the entire time, but switched over, got burned, and is now mad that his [incorrect] thesis did not pan out. But... we are the ones with hubris. Comical.

 

[brysondad]

If I'm interpreting this correctly, you seem angry that I called out your theory that buying pressure makes stocks go down, and selling pressure makes them go up.

you interpreted wrong. I said those with huge gains and holding will be fuel for future downturns. This has always been true for growth/momo stocks, and if you disagree tsla is a momo stock, then you keep thinking you are right.

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Well, not the 900% return that TSLA provided, but I don't think that an average 200% yoy return that KO gets you is too shabby to pass on to your kids, so I do not quite get the analogy that you used earlier. Please though, don't let that stir you from your cave.

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And if you will refer to his posts at that time, he was calling for well sub-$100 prices as well. Has not been a bear the entire time, but switched over, got burned, and is now mad that his [incorrect] thesis did not pan out. But... we are the ones with hubris. Comical.

I referenced coca cola to get a gauge if folks are treating TSLA as a dynastic long term holding like coke, or long term like 5 years? that's all.

If it makes you feel better, i'll say I got burned short and long tesla. that's why i live in a cave... duh...

 

[The Blue Owl]

you interpreted wrong. I said those with huge gains and holding will be fuel for future downturns. This has always been true for growth/momo stocks, and if you disagree tsla is a momo stock, then you keep thinking you are right.

No, it hasn't always been true. Not all momos are like Pets.com. When a company sells the best product by a mile in its category, has no credible competition in sight, puts everything it has on the line to grow the biggest it can the fastest it can for the foreseeable future, and is executing under stellar management, it may very well keep going up forever (exaggerated for effect.)

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I'm open to opposing arguments but it's a waste of time to argue with perma-bears who only show up here after big drops to try to stoke more fear, guys. I caught falling knives all the way down to 120 during the fire sale. It would have been great to buy all at the exact bottom but when TSLA zoomed past all my buy points on the way back up, I was just fine with all my shiny new knives.

Yes, +1

 

[AlMc]

I'm open to opposing arguments but it's a waste of time to argue with perma-bears who only show up here after big drops to try to stoke more fear, guys. I caught falling knives all the way down to 120 during the fire sale. It would have been great to buy all at the exact bottom but when TSLA zoomed past all my buy points on the way back up, I was just fine with all my shiny new knives.

Even if your characterization is correct, it does not hurt to hear the opposing opinions if someone can give a well thought out position and back it up with numbers/facts. If they can't I believe most people on TMC can determine whether there is validity in their position or just FUD.

 

[brysondad]

Bryson, I start selling when I think it is overvalued, do to a major run up or a change in fundamentals, or has essentially run the bulk of it's outsized growth and is fair valued. Of course, I prefer the last of these scenarios. I make those decisions with my head. It sounded as though you were suggesting one could only be long the stock with one's heart, but I may have misunderstood your post. (fwiw, I sold 10% of my holdings at $248. I've bought that and more back in with an average price of around $200).

I think those that hold with significant gains in a stock like TSLA is greedy, trying to time the absolute top, and loss averse.

Who am i to tell anyone to go long or short? Just expressing my thoughts. There are times to follow your heart, there are times to follow the brain/numbers. I just think longer term, price follow cold hard numbers, not potential/dream. Just my thoughts

 

[The Blue Owl]

There are times to follow your heart, there are times to follow the brain/numbers.

There's that false dichotomy again. Reasonable people may disagree with their brains, too.

 

[brysondad]

No, it hasn't always been true. Not all momos are like Pets.com. When a company sells the best product by a mile in its category, has no credible competition in sight, puts everything it has on the line to grow the biggest it can the fastest it can for the foreseeable future, and is executing under stellar management, it may very well keep going up forever (exaggerated for effect.)

educate me. name a momo stock that grew into its valuation? Apple grew WITH its valuation. Most stocks with KO's long term stock chart, grew WITH valuation, not INTO valuation. TSLA is attempting to grow INTO its valuation.

 

[dmunjal]

No, it hasn't always been true. Not all momos are like Pets.com. When a company sells the best product by a mile in its category, has no credible competition in sight, puts everything it has on the line to grow the biggest it can the fastest it can for the foreseeable future, and is executing under stellar management, it may very well keep going up forever (exaggerated for effect.)

I think Amazon might be a better comparison.

 

[FANGO]

There's that false dichotomy again. Reasonable people may disagree with their brains, too.

I bought Tesla with my brain and I'm holding it with my brain.

If you want to see numbers, brysonsdad, read the GS report from last quarter.

 

[The Blue Owl]

I think Amazon might be a better comparison.

We're not disagreeing. I used Pets.com as the negative example.

 

[MikeC]

Even if your characterization is correct, it does not hurt to hear the opposing opinions if someone can give a well thought out position and back it up with numbers/facts. If they can't I believe most people on TMC can determine whether there is validity in their position or just FUD.

Agreed. And if they can't, they're wasting my time because I have a compulsion to keep clicking on this thread every time there's a new post.

 

[brysondad]

I'm open to opposing arguments but it's a waste of time to argue with perma-bears who only show up here after big drops to try to stoke more fear, guys. I caught falling knives all the way down to 120 during the fire sale. It would have been great to buy all at the exact bottom but when TSLA zoomed past all my buy points on the way back up, I was just fine with all my shiny new knives.

yes, it's waste of time to argue with perm-any-animal.

 

[The Blue Owl]

educate me. name a momo stock that grew into its valuation? Apple grew WITH its valuation. Most stocks with KO's long term stock chart, grew WITH valuation, not INTO valuation. TSLA is attempting to grow INTO its valuation.

As dmunjal pointed out, AMZN is still growing into its valuation. Its stock returned 600% over the last 10 years, with no profits to speak of. WMT returned 47% over the same period.

If you're waiting to buy the stock after it's grown, you're doing it wrong.

 

[MikeC]

yes, it's waste of time to argue with perm-any-animal.

Agreed, can't argue with you on that.