Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[MartinAustin]

I absolutely agree with FANGO. We should wish well to all EV's that come along. There is plenty of market to steal from the ICE vehicles for all EV newcomers. Most city car EV owners are very likely to discover how much they love driving EV and will trade up to Tesla quite soon. There are 3 Leafs in my neighborhood and I can say that all three of these drivers will have Teslas soon enough. Imagine if every car on your block was a Leaf, 500e or i3. Within 2 years at least 1/2 of those would be upgraded to Teslas. I wish i3, Leaf, 500e, Spark etc..the very best of sales!

As people see EV's from many companies, they will warm to the idea, the ICE cars will appear archaic to the general public, and everyone's EV sales will go up, especially Tesla. I, for one, always wave/nod even talk to the owners of other EV's. We are ambassadors for Tesla, better we welcome all EV's rather than seem snobby.

Totally agree. The more EVs the better... and the more EVs that don't come with a gasoline tank, the better. So the more i3's that are sold without the range extender feature, the better. (at least it is available without the range extender, versus the Volt et. al... that's a step in the right direction)

It's sad that after all these years (since publicising their mission, and releasing two cars with lots of years of advance publicity) that there is little-to-nothing in the battery-only EV market. Perhaps it is testament to the difficulty of the problem that Tesla has no direct competition. Look out Nissan Leaf once the cheaper Tesla comes out.

 

[Causalien]

How the next month will play out is this. Like the pennant and opex is indicating. Monday is a big move. From TA, some news should be announced this weekend. And I am probably shooting myself by commiting the sin of predicting the future.

A NHSTA muddle through announcement anytime in the next month will bring us back to $133 level, from there on, the stock will try to close all those gaps created since $150. Gap closing is an eventuality in a stock's life.A positive announcement will just shoot it back to $150. An optimistic announcement i.e. requiring all automaker to achieve Model S standard, will propel the stock past $200. A negative will drop the stock to $108, or whatever the 200 SMA is at that moment. As tons of people liquid the call sold against the secondary offering they bought.

That is, if there's no other fire from a tow hitch. But by god, if there's a third tow hitch dropped oto the highway in front of a Model S, I'd be investigating the transportation company that is moving these car parts in an open top trailer.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

An optimistic announcement i.e. requiring all automaker to achieve Model S standard,

You got the MAIN point. I think that NHTSA should recognize that the Model S, unlike other cars (both ICE and EV), is the only car warning the driver that the bottom of the car has been damaged and inviting him to pull over safely independently from any actions that will be taken. IMO this is a safety standard that should be installed on ALL cars.

I am saying this not for the stock but for the love of truth.

 

[justthateasy]

It is now a VW. Look, the more time it bounces off this level, the more important it is. Hower, today, looks like we are forming a green hammer candle. It is one of the stronger candle patrerns. If we close green, it is significant.

The funny thing about shorters hired to post with an agenda is that they never mention the other side. A true neutral TA or chartist will mention that volume is decreasing.

The thing about volume decreasing is that it is more significant going down than up. As price increase, volume usually goes down because there are less shares you can buy with the same 1 million. The reverse should not be true with a down trending stock.

And to anyone saying pennant is a continuation signal, your are full of crap. The only thing you can get out of a pennant is that you know that at the tip of it, is the decision to go up or down.

I'm full of crap? Right…. I pointed out the bear pennant forming the days after ER and it continued into late last week then we saw TSLA implode to the downside this past Monday.

Right now we have lower highs and higher lows again while volume has decreased, which is a point of consolidation. While we are very close to another pennant narrowing, the overall downward trend continues and that's a sign of a bearish pennant. Based on the trend lines alone, TSLA is trading very close to recent resistance and has a lot of room to fall before hitting any real support which happens to be in the range of the 200-day MA.

I understand that you might be emotional because you're holding shares that you bought in the 160s or 170s and hoped for a pop to the 190s and seeing 200+ right now but got burned like many others. It sucks to buy at that price and see your shares tank $40-50 (25-30%), I know because I've been there and it's easy get emotional about it.

Instead of saying one person is full of crap because they've done their homework, it might be a better idea to do your own research and to get a better idea about the trends and patterns forming. That way, you can make some defensive moves before TSLA implodes again and possibly make some money back when it gains some support again.

 

[perdru]

People, after having hit something heavy enough to destroy the battery pack of a Model S, and don´t pull over afterwards, are problebly deaf... and blind - so a warning would have no effect.

- - - Updated - - -

You got the MAIN point. I think that NHTSA should recognize that the Model S, unlike other cars (both ICE and EV), is the only car warning the driver that the bottom of the car has been damaged and inviting him to pull over safely independently from any actions that will be taken. IMO this is a safety standard that should be installed on ALL cars.

I am saying this not for the stock but for the love of truth.

People, after having hit something heavy enough to destroy the battery pack of a Model S, and don´t pull over afterwards, are problebly deaf... and blind - so a warning would have no effect.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

@perdru

While driving at high speed you cannot see under the car. If the car is hit in a vital place and damaged in that place you need to be informed IMO. There have been many fires (expecially in ICE cars!) starting like this.
To this concern I would like to point out that in the case of the last incident of the Model S the driver has been informed to pull over by the onboard screen. In fact he didn't see any smoke or fire. The smoke and the fire started only two minutes after that he left the car.

 

[Causalien]

No, I am saying that a pennant is not a continuation indicator of any movement. Especially one that's squeezing from both side. If this pennant/flag whatever is sloped down, I'd agree. But a pennant in general, is a consolidation to a decision point and the proper advice for anybody is a straddle. That's is why I am saying it is crap to say it indicates a momentum either way. Look back in history, how many times did a pennant cause a jump up.

So yeah, you are full of crap to say it suggest a move that's purely bearish. It suggest a volatile event so bullish IV.

 

[CyberDutchie]

I love the pennant/flag discussions, just hate the full of ... comment, not necessary in my opinion. Yes, there are a lot of us hurting from plays that didn't work out the way we thought they would, but keep the discussions civil please.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

I love the pennant/flag discussions, just hate the full of ... comment, not necessary in my opinion. Yes, there are a lot of us hurting from plays that didn't work out the way we thought they would, but keep the discussions civil please.

Agree. We are all interested to Tesla and electric cars. That's the main point. We should cooperate each other and exchange our views in the reciprocal respect. Then in this case I saw many interesting points from both the sides (also if I don't understand so much of this matter). I don't really understand the reason of the above mentioned comment.

 

[Larken]

I absolutely agree with FANGO. We should wish well to all EV's that come along. There is plenty of market to steal from the ICE vehicles for all EV newcomers. Most city car EV owners are very likely to discover how much they love driving EV and will trade up to Tesla quite soon. There are 3 Leafs in my neighborhood and I can say that all three of these drivers will have Teslas soon enough. Imagine if every car on your block was a Leaf, 500e or i3. Within 2 years at least 1/2 of those would be upgraded to Teslas. I wish i3, Leaf, 500e, Spark etc..the very best of sales!

As people see EV's from many companies, they will warm to the idea, the ICE cars will appear archaic to the general public, and everyone's EV sales will go up, especially Tesla. I, for one, always wave/nod even talk to the owners of other EV's. We are ambassadors for Tesla, better we welcome all EV's rather than seem snobby.

You are right. I withdraw my previous statement that the BMW i3 is a fail. I guess I was more annoyed by how the media in its FUD campaign is doing everything it can to downplay the awesomeness of the Model S by comparing the i3 with the MS.

 

[tslafan123]

"CEO Elon Musk says the fires are extreme cases that happened after the cars hit road debris at high speeds on two U.S. highways.


He says in an interview with The Associated Press that he doesn't expect a recall, and his engineers are not working on any changes to the $70,000 cars."

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_TESLA_CEO?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

 

[Raffy.Roma]

But in this video the NHTSA employee says that they are working in cooperation with Tesla employees:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000219887&__source=yahoo|headline|quote|video|&par=yahoo

So does this mean that NHTSA and Tesla already came to the conclusion that the Model S is safe and no change is needed?

 

[FredTMC]

People, after having hit something heavy enough to destroy the battery pack of a Model S, and don´t pull over afterwards, are problebly deaf... and blind - so a warning would have no effect.

- - - Updated - - -



People, after having hit something heavy enough to destroy the battery pack of a Model S, and don´t pull over afterwards, are problebly deaf... and blind - so a warning would have no effect.

the car car shuts down regardless. You can't continue down the road even if you want to...

 

[Curt Renz]

People, after having hit something heavy enough to destroy the battery pack of a Model S, and don´t pull over afterwards, are problebly deaf... and blind - so a warning would have no effect.

I'll assume that was said with tongue in cheek, since people who are deaf and blind do not drive cars.

 

[FredTMC]

"CEO Elon Musk says the fires are extreme cases that happened after the cars hit road debris at high speeds on two U.S. highways.


He says in an interview with The Associated Press that he doesn't expect a recall, and his engineers are not working on any changes to the $70,000 cars."

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_TESLA_CEO?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Hmmm. I interpret Elon's statement that "his engineers are not working on any changes" to MS to be as follows:

there are no changes that are CURRENTLY going to be made...

i find it highly unlikely that engineers are NOT exploring/evaluating things that COULD be done (thicker plating, etc)

as as further evidence, TM has already made one change we know of... They raised the suspension height

anyone disagree?

 

[Raffy.Roma]

@FredTMC

IMO the suspension height have been raised only temporarily. Main point here is to understand if Elon is giving us in advance the news that NHTSA is going to clear Tesla since NHTSA and Tesla are working in cooperation on this matter.

 

[FredTMC]

FredTMC

IMO the suspension height have been raised only temporarily. Main point here is to understand if Elon is giving us in advance the news that NHTSA cleared Tesla.

thanks Raffy

IMO I highly doubt Elon knows whether NHTSA has cleared TM. Rather, I think Elon is simply "putting it out there" (again) that he feels strongly no recall/changes are required because the human safety impact is negligible. I like how Elon reminds everyone that protecting the car is secondary and TM is covering car fire damage as part of warranty amendment

 

[Raffy.Roma]

I like how Elon reminds everyone that protecting the car is secondary and TM is covering car fire damage as part of warranty amendment

Agree 100%. As it has been widely debated on TMC this whole matter is a PR/image issue rather than a safety issue.

 

[NStar]

thanks Raffy

IMO I highly doubt Elon knows whether NHTSA has cleared TM. Rather, I think Elon is simply "putting it out there" (again) that he feels strongly no recall/changes are required because the human safety impact is negligible. I like how Elon reminds everyone that protecting the car is secondary and TM is covering car fire damage as part of warranty amendment

Agree. this does not seem like a message conveyed after communicating with NHTSA. Previously NHTSA did not like what Tesla said wrt the 5.4 safety rating and who-requested-the-fire-investigation. If I were NHTSA I would not be happy about the news headline "Tesla CEO expects feds to clear Model S in fires" either (though I feel it's quite acceptable if what Elon said was actually just he does not expect a recall, since most recalls are voluntary rather than being forced by NHTSA).

 

[CyberDutchie]

Seems Elon is sticking to his statement that he believes TSLA price was higher then the company deserves, and that he also didn't think the price should have gone up to that level. I wished he would stop repeating these thoughts

He also said that Model S sales are higher than expected so far in the fourth quarter. This AP interview was after the close, so it may move the stock on Monday...if people still remember, that is. Friday is not the greatest day for getting word out.