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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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From my (limited) understanding of the market you could not possibly ask for a better "news" to trigger shortsqueeze. TM is profitable contrary to believes of analysts! But how come price have not reached even higher skies? I would not see how shorsqueeze chance could be better than what happened(amending profitability 3(three!!!) quarters before any analyst foresee it).

+1 to donpedro's comments

you don't think there was an element of short squeeze in that $9+ move up overnight from $37 to 46? that was a huge move! $1 billion increase in market cap with no clear information of the specifics of the earnings, it's a lot. not every short is going to run out and cover at the first sign of good news. especially not on a $9 move up in a day. even if they want out they'll be patient, try to buy a dip, or hope the earnings are bad... basically do all the things you would do if you were trying to patiently buy a stock.

i think you don't feel the squeezing because you're not short. imagine every day that goes by costs you 5-10c per share just for the privilege of borrowing shares to stay short. how long are you gonna wait? if you're short a thousand shares. oh there goes $50. and another $70. and another $80. easter weekend? oh that just cost $300. and oh crap the stock just went from $36-41 and there goes another $5000. and oh crap. another $80. and another $80. and another $80. and now the weekend. that's gonna cost $150.

trust me it sucks big time to be on that side of the trade.

that short is thinking of all his ways out. he's on the phone with cory johnson, telling him hey production went down... tesla emailed everyone to stuff the quarter... the reservations are collapsing... oh thank god now the stock is coming down. he's calling his analyst at merrill or pacific crest, or wherever. "say it sucks man. tell 'em it's not real."

and today, oh yay jobs numbers are bad, now tesla's gonna get killed.... but oh crap why is it holding 41? well maybe north korea will do something crazy over the weekend or a tesla will catch fire or something...

this is the thought process of the undisciplined tesla short right now. it sucks to be him. when either he's happy with a profit or hopefully for us his finally life gets too miserable and he has to cover... then he'll come in do something like what just happened. "buy 25,000 tesla at market!" and tesla will jump 25c in a heartbeat.
 
I agree is it very annoying (and ok some what nerve racking) to see Tesla drop over a dollar unexpectedly when the market is up but I don't think anything has changed. Hopefully the regulator puts a stop to it but even if they don't I don't think this will be able to hold TSLA down leading up to the earnings report. I had read somewhere that an analyst was saying to be on the watch for another secondary offering in part of Elon's 5 part trilogy, I am assuming this is why more analyst have not weighed in but I think they will before the earnings report. I think they will also do their usual buy the rumor sell the news leading up to quarterly announcement.
 
CNBC reported today that the Obama 2014 budget proposal to congress increases the federal tax credit for electric vehicles to $10,000 from $7,500.

That might be moving TSLA today.

Thanks for that. Also, Musk has tweeted that "New York judge just ruled in favor Tesla, dismissing the legal attack by auto dealers to prevent direct sales!" and "New York judge states: '... dealers cannot utilize the Franchised Dealer Act as a means to sue their competitors'. Exactly!"

GM and Ford shares are moving nicely today too.
 
Thanks for that. Also, Musk has tweeted that "New York judge just ruled in favor Tesla, dismissing the legal attack by auto dealers to prevent direct sales!" and "New York judge states: '... dealers cannot utilize the Franchised Dealer Act as a means to sue their competitors'. Exactly!"

GM and Ford shares are moving nicely today too.

Just saw that. Yes, this explains the move, that's for point it out. The $10k credit is interesting, but there is 0 hope of Obama's budget passing, so not sure that would move the stock. Probably not this much, but maybe it helped.
 
Just saw that. Yes, this explains the move, that's for point it out. The $10k credit is interesting, but there is 0 hope of Obama's budget passing, so not sure that would move the stock. Probably not this much, but maybe it helped.

Probably not so much the specific proposal in the budget, but the fact that the administration is pushing for more EV incentives rather than backing away from them.
 
Took some profits. Roughly 15% gain over the past 5 days is pretty high, and I think we may see a dip again in the not-so-near future. What do you guys think?

I did not take any profits, but because I'm at a generally minimum level of long position; But I agree with you; waiting on the next pull back to add some trade-able position to my long-long.
Then again I had trimmed back earlier at $35 thinking the market itself would pull back- TSLA along with it- so what do I know?
 
I was just looking back at Morgan Stanley's reports on Tesla (they seem like they move the stock a lot when they say something). The reports make for an interesting read...

March 2011
Production Assumption: 2,000 in 2012, 15,000 in 2013, 18,000 in 2014
Margin Assumption: Break-even OP in 2014, margins peak at 17%
Price Target: $70

December 2011
Production Assumption: I don't think they changed, seems like the call was based on a change in what the overal size of the EV market would be.
Price Target: $44

September 2012
Production Assumption: 2,250 in 2012, 15,000 in 2013 (they specifically cite 3,000 units for Q1)
Price Target: $50

Clearly Morgan Stanley is going to need to revise their price estimate based on the numbers Tesla is putting up. I'm surprised they haven't done it yet, perhaps they are waiting for the quarterly report. The numbers they are using for their production assumption are not even in the right ballpark, and the margins are also low versus Elon's guidance. If we can see some serious improvement in margins, they may need to make a dramatic upgrade after the Q1 report.

Note that two of their previous 3 reports resulted in a double-digit percentage move in the stock price.
 
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